NEW YORK — The oil market has lost its jitters.

Some regions around the world are seeing the type of unrest that in the past sent oil prices soaring. Yet oil is down about $15 since midsummer and near its low for the year.

Even with escalating violence in Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest exporter, and multiple rounds of sanctions by Western nations against Russia, the biggest exporter outside of OPEC, oil keeps on flowing. The major exporting nations continue to ship their crude, and production in the U.S. and Canada continues to grow.

At the same time, demand from China and Europe isn’t growing as much as expected, leaving more oil on the market than predicted.

“Demand has really dropped off globally, and continues to be revised downward,” said Judith Dwarkin, chief energy economist at ITG Investment Research. “And there’s plentiful supply.”

The price of oil rose slightly Tuesday to close at $91.56. Before this week, the last time oil was at these levels was January. For the year, oil has averaged $99.80 per barrel. The price did reach $107.26 in June at the peak of concerns over the insurgency in Iraq, but it soon retreated when it became clear Iraq’s huge southern oil fields weren’t threatened.

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Some of the decline is likely due to a seasonal lull in demand. Driving slows dramatically throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere as summer wanes. If there are no hurricanes or other disruptions to oil supplies, prices typically fall and languish into the winter.

But the global economy is a factor as well. The International Energy Agency, which represents oil-importing nations, said earlier this month that crude demand has slowed at a “remarkable” pace because of economic slowdowns in Europe and China.

As a result, the agency has reduced its forecast for growth of global demand by 100,000 barrels per day for both this year and next year

Oswald Clint, an oil analyst at Bernstein Research, does not expect oil prices to fall further, however, or even remain at these lower levels for long. He predicts demand will rise in response to the lower prices.


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