Evening Update
Light to at times moderate snow is falling across portions of southern Maine. Snow will continue at various intensities overnight with a lull in the action during the early morning hours. It continues to appear the heaviest precipitation will stay off the coast or south of Maine sparing us a blockbuster snow event.

Earlier Blog Update
After a very cold start to the day, skies are now cloudy and steady snow will move into the area later this afternoon or evening. There will be some flurries or snow showers before the steady snow. The bottom line on this storm, I don’t see it being as bad as forecast, at least in terms of snow. New information continues to project this low pressure area further south. This blog forecast is going to be drastically different than others you may have seen today. Wind is still a potential problem especially Sunday Morning.

If the forecast changes again, I’ll update here and on Twitter @growingwisdom. Please follow me there.

Timing
There will be a period of snow this afternoon and evening. If you have errands and other normal Saturday activities, the roads won’t become too bad during the daylight hours. Since the asphalt is so cold, any snow will quickly accumulate, but the wind won’t be a factor and travel will just be slowed.

Dinner Plans
It’s Valentine’s Day and cancelling dinner is a person choice. The very short range models are showing snow and perhaps some bursts of moderate or even heavy snow between 6PM and 10PM. I expect 1 to 3 inches on the ground by midnight. the snow may lighten for a time after that. This is a big night for many restaurants and if you can safely go, it’s a great way to support local business.

Lull In The Snowfall
The potential blizzard is caused by a storm moving from the Ohio Valley to the coastline and then becoming quickly intense. Meteorologists call this rapid intensification “bombogenensis”. The evening snow is from the initial piece of energy moving through the region and my predicted lull in the snow will occur as the storm starts to reform. During this time, the snow may stop completely or just become very light. This should last a few hours before the snow may resume Sunday morning. If the center is even further away, there will be even less snow.

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Sunday
The storm will going at peak intensity in the morning on the coast south of Maine, but moving away during the afternoon. If blizzard conditions are going to occur, this is when they will happen. Snow bands should be rotating around the back of the storm which will be intensifying out in the ocean. As the storm grows stronger, winds will continue to increase and peak late in the morning or early afternoon. I believe the bulk of this precipitation will miss the area.

High Wind

Even if we miss most of the snow, the wind will whip the even a small amount snow into drifts and blow it off the ground. A blizzard means visibility is a quarter miles or less due to falling or blowing snow lasting for 3 hours or longer. Any snow will lighten up late in the morning or early afternoon, but the winds may create blizzard conditions, especially along the immediate coastline. The snow will end completely during the afternoon.

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Cold

Temperatures will recover back into the upper teens today from the cold morning lows. Overnight, it will still be in the 10 to 15 degree range, so not bitter cold.

Tomorrow it will still be in the lower teens, but during the day, as the winds turn and come from the northwest, temperatures will fall into the single numbers and wind chills will fall to the teens below zero. Wind chill Sunday night will range from 20-30 below zero, dangerous levels.

Snow Totals

Southern York and Cumberland Counties are at risk for the most snow, but if the storm jogs east a bit then these numbers will be too high, a jog west and I will have under predicted the storm. Notice areas to the north and west will see significantly less snow. Extreme Down-East Maine could still see a foot or more of snow, but even that isn’t a sure bet.

mainesnowprojectionsff

Snow Weight
The cold air will keep the snow light and fluffy. The snow will blow off many higher roof tops, but create drifts on the roofs that are lower. You’ll need to assess for yourself if snow removal makes sense after the storm. If you don’t have issues with ice dams and it’s not too deep, you can leave the snow up there, it does act as a good insulator.

Coastal issues

The storm will bring the chance of minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding. High tide occurs around 7:30AM Sunday. It’s not an astronomically high tide. Since the storm is moving quickly the Sunday evening high tide should be less problematic.

Power Problems

Winds will be strong enough to blow down some tree limbs etc. along the coast and this can always causes a loss of power. The snow will be light so the weight of that won’t be an issue on power lines. During the blizzard in January many of us kept power, this should be the case again.

Next Storm

There is the chance for more snow during the middle of next week. This could be more snow for us, we’ll have to wait a few more days to see how the trends develop.


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