One of my students from Colby texted me last night with a picture off his cell phone showing 12 to 18 inches of snow this weekend for the Augusta/Waterville region. Now, I can certainly get a forecast incorrect, but I think those kind of numbers are way out of line with what I am seeing this weekend.

It’s tempting to look at those smartphone forecasts and believe them, but they are highly automated and highly susceptible to misinterpretation. Winter isn’t over and a major snowstorm is still possible well into April, but I don’t believe this weekend is going to bring us one of them.

The setup involves two low pressure systems. The first will bring primarily liquid precipitation, while the second brings more in the way of snowfall. The image below from the folks at NWS in Gray gives a good summary of the weekend forecast.

The first low pressure area will bring precipitation to the region early Saturday. Temperatures tomorrow are going to be cold enough to see some sleet, snow and freezing rain prior to any change to rain. The highest risk of icy conditions will be west of the coastline and north of Brunswick on Saturday. If you are traveling to go skiing this weekend, bring the foul weather gear and expect the driving to be slow heading into the mountains.

I expect about a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of water with this first round of precipitation. This won’t be enough to cause anything more than some big puddles on the roads if the storm drains haven’t opened up.

The map below from WeatherBell Analytics shows the rain-snow line Saturday in the evening.

The recent mild weather has likely created a gap between where the snow meets the storm drains. Therefore, even if you can’t see the entire drain still, there is probably enough room for water to flow into them.

The second storm, which is the one that could bring snow back to the area forms Sunday morning near Cape Cod and then moves northeast. This track will pull cold air back into the region and allow the rain to change to snow or, if there has been a complete stop in precipitation, simply allow snow to develop.

The map below shows snow, some of it heavy east and north of Portland during the early afternoon Sunday.

The questionable part of the forecast is how far south significant snow develops. A likely scenario is greater Portland escapes any heavy snow, with just 1 to 3 inches of snow, and perhaps 4 inches north and west Gray.

The Augusta-Waterville region will be closer to the heavy snow with 4 to 8 inches of snow possible. As you move further north and east, especially beyond Bangor, heavier snow approaching a foot is possible.

There is an important caveat here. If the storm develops even further east than expected, these numbers will go down and if the storm develops closer to southern Maine then the heavier snow will shift further south. I think the chances are greater we see less snow rather than more snow.

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