CONCORD, N.H. – New Hampshire’s political dynamic at the midpoint of this pre-election year is both utterly familiar and unlike anything voters here have seen before.

What isn’t surprising is that this first-in-the-nation presidential primary state is living up to its reputation for keeping front-runners on edge. The heavily favored Democratic candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton, finds herself having to grind it out here to fend off the insurgent liberal candidacy of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt..

But if what is happening in the Democratic race is familiar, the contours of the Republican race are unprecedented, with New Hampshire playing host to the most wide-open and least stratified GOP primary in the modern era.

Of the party’s 16 declared or likely candidates, nine are competing aggressively here, and most are depending on a strong finish. This makes New Hampshire not just a high-stakes enterprise but also one that is as strategically challenging as anyone here can remember.

New Hampshire activists, who take pride in their special opportunity to examine candidates face to face, have been especially slow to commit this year – trying to choose not between two candidates but among five or six.

Given the reputation of New Hampshire voters to decide only at the end, the open race will probably keep candidates guessing until the eve of the winter primary.

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“It’s in these people’s DNA not to rush to judgment,” said Rich Killion, the top New Hampshire strategist for former Florida governor Jeb Bush. “These people are gut-level voters, and there’s a huge path to get to the gut – ears, head, heart, gut.”

The absence of a Republican heir apparent adds to the belief among the candidates that anything is possible if they spend lots of time here talking to voters and building their organizations.

That’s why New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who starts far back in the pack, flew here on Tuesday after announcing his candidacy and stayed through the weekend. It is why Carly Fiorina, a former technology executive who is a long shot, has scheduled a six-day, 13-stop tour of the Granite State this week.

By this stage in past cycles, leading candidates such as Mitt Romney in 2012 had rolled out big endorsements and announced various steering committees. That’s not so this year – not even for Bush, who should have had a big head start, thanks to the network passed down by his father and brother, both former presidents.

“One of the dogs that isn’t barking is how few committed public supporters even major candidates have,” said Fergus Cullen, a former state Republican Party chairman. “The reason they haven’t released their 40-person steering committee is because they don’t have 40 steering-committee supporters.”

There are signs of Bush fatigue. Bush marched in Fourth of July parades in the state and is due back this week but has much work to do to convince voters he is more than just another Bush. His advisers said he has a compelling story to tell and the resources to tell it.

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“There’s no front-runner, and there’s tremendous freedom in that for all of us,” Killion said. “Jeb Bush has room to grow, and he’s built for the long haul. In New Hampshire, you’ll see us grind it out every day, inch by inch by inch.”

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin have the potential to perform well, but Republican operatives said they are puzzled why the two men have not spent more time in the state. Rubio has made five trips this year, Walker just three.

By comparison, Christie and Fiorina are generating buzz for their frequent visits and intense courting of local officials.

There are wild cards as well. Ohio Gov. John Kasich plans to run hard here. He is both a blank slate to voters and an unpredictable performer. Real estate mogul Donald Trump has caught on in the polls, but how long he stays a serious contender is an open question.

The absence of a front-runner makes any direct engagement tempting but exceedingly risky. “This isn’t three-dimensional chess; it’s like four-or-five-dimensional chess,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

With such a tightly bunched field, the Republican winner could have one of the lowest percentages ever. Sen. John McCain of Arizona won with 49 percent of the vote in 2000 and 38 percent in 2008. In 2012, Romney carried 39 percent. Strategists said 25 percent or so may be enough this time.

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“It’s very possible you could have five or six candidates all finish within a point of each other or virtually tied,” said Steve Duprey, a Republican National Committee member in New Hampshire. “It turns it almost from a statewide race to a school board race.”

This rewards a niche strategy, Cullen said. Someone like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, whose staunch conservatism makes him more palatable in the Iowa caucuses, could rally the right and finish strong in a state otherwise known for its socially moderate Republicans. Similarly, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky could succeed by consolidating libertarian voters.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is the overwhelming establishment favorite in a state that generally backs such candidates.

Clinton, who won the New Hampshire primary in 2008, is investing heavily here again. She has opened five offices and has more on the way. Her staff here, led by Mike Vlacich, know the state well; many of them guided Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to reelection last year, bucking the national Republican tilt of those midterm elections.

Still, history is filled with examples of establishment front-runners who faced strong challenges from the left – Ted Kennedy vs. Jimmy Carter in 1980; Gary Hart vs. Walter Mondale in 1984; Bill Bradley vs. Al Gore in 2000; Howard Dean vs. John Kerry in 2004. Carter, Gore and Kerry won, but only after their rivals gave them a scare.

The 2016 cycle is no different, as Sanders whips up support across the state with a populist crusade against “the billionaire class.” A CNN-WMUR poll late last month showed Sanders gaining on Clinton, with 35 percent to her 43 percent.

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This has reset Clinton’s once sky-high expectations to a more reasonable zone, although her advisers insist they had been preparing for a difficult primary.

“We felt pretty confident that New Hampshire would do what New Hampshire does – vet the candidates,” Vlacich said. “I’m not being cute with you. I honestly think it’s a good thing for us to have to work to earn every vote. It’s going to make us a really strong campaign organization. Honestly, we’re enjoying this. We ramped up knowing we would have a competitive environment to work in.”

In her visits here, Clinton has been talking up issues that resonate with local Democrats, such as the state’s heroin epidemic. On the stump Friday at Dartmouth College, near the Vermont border, Clinton touted her liberal record, saying, “I take a back seat to no one when you look at my record of standing up and fighting for progressive values.”

New Hampshire has long had an anti-Washington streak, which could cut against the former first lady, senator and secretary of state. Yet this state also has a recent history of electing female leaders, and Clinton’s advisers say the historic nature of her candidacy will resonate here especially.

Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anslem College, said the Sanders challenge is exactly what Clinton needs to get ready for the general election.

“If they had to choreograph the script, this is what the script would look like,” Levesque said. “They need to have some opposition on the left. It makes her look more centered. It lets her participate in debates. But in the end, an independent senator running for the Democratic nomination is awkward.”


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