Here is how we began our Red Sox season preview on April 5:
“So much can go right for the Boston Red Sox. So much can go wrong.”
By THE NUMBERS
3: Largest deficit in the last 25 years erased by an AL East team after the break to win the division
4: Boston’s longest winning streak of this season, which was last week (July 4-8)
15: Rank among 15 American League teams in overall team ERA (4.44)
15: Rank among 15 American League teams in ERA for starters (4.75)
79: Strikeouts for Mike Napoli in 309 plate appearances, to go with his .193 average
As the All-Star break ends with Boston resuming play Friday night in Anaheim, we can agree that so far much has gone wrong.
The Red Sox have a 42-47 record and are in last place in the American League East. Yet they cling to hope because they are only 6½ games out of first place. Consider that the 42-46 Indians are 11 games out in the AL Central.
Another reason for that glimmer of hope is Boston is 9-4 in its last 13 games, despite losing 2 of 3 last weekend to the New York Yankees at Fenway Park.
The trade deadline is just two weeks away, and Boston’s obvious need is starting pitching.
But be wary of quick fixes.
There are starters available, but they won’t be cheap. And the Red Sox are at a crossroads. There’s a difference between trading for a piece that could lead to a championship and trading in hopes of climbing into contention.
Should Boston trade young talent like Blake Swihart, Henry Owens or Manuel Margot? Sounds like too big a risk.
Remember when Boston traded for Jake Peavy in 2013? It seemed to make sense. The Red Sox needed another piece to push themselves over the top – and they did win it all. But was it a good trade? Boston gave up shortstop Jose Iglesias – now an All-Star – in the deal, while the Red Sox went 5-5 in Peavy’s starts, and 1-2 in his postseason starts.
Heading into Opening Day, we scrutinized five areas of concern. Let’s take another glance in mid-July:
• Rotation. Back then we wrote: “Put the best seasons of Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley and Joe Kelly together, and you come up with a combined 67-40 mark with a 3.08 ERA.”
Wishful thinking. So far these five have combined for a 25-31 record and a 4.84 ERA.
Boston ranks last in the league in overall ERA (4.44) and starter’s ERA (4.75) – and that’s with newcomer Eduardo Rodriguez (3.59) in the rotation.
Kelly is now in Pawtucket and Masterson possibly looking at a bullpen role. Porcello (5-9, 5.90) remains the biggest disappointment, although the biggest blow came when Buchholz (7-7, 3.26) hit the disabled list last week with a strained flexor muscle in his right elbow. Buchholz had been looking like the ace this team needs, but now is out indefinitely.
Boston called up Brian Johnson from Pawtucket and he may help. Plus, Owens is pitching better in Triple-A. But how many young left-handed rookie starters can a team rely on all at once?
The obvious solution is a trade. Tempting names are floating out there: Cole Hamels (Phillies), Johnny Cueto (Reds), James Shields (Padres), Jeff Samardzija (White Sox) and Scott Kazmir (A’s).
If Boston makes a surge heading into the trade deadline, it might pull the trigger on a deal.
• Bullpen. The season began with concerns that closer Koji Uehara, 40, was on the disabled list. But Uehara isn’t the problem here, not with his 22-of-24 saves and 0.88 WHIP (walks/hits per innings).
This bullpen isn’t deep and it is tired, having thrown 284 innings, the third-most in the American League. The bullpen’s WHIP of 1.34 ranks 12th among the 15 AL teams.
Boston can rely on Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and usually Alexi Ogando.
We thought rookie Matt Barnes might step up and maybe even become the closer. Oops. Barnes has an 1.88 WHIP and a 5.64 ERA.
Boston can help the bullpen by putting Kelly and Masterson in relief roles. But a trade might also have to happen. Even a minor deal would help.
• Health/age. The concerns included Uehara; David Ortiz, 39; Shane Victorino, 34; Mike Napoli, 34; oft-injured Dustin Pedroia, 31; and Hanley Ramirez, 31.
Victorino has become a platoon player with two DL stints. Napoli (.193/.648 OPS) is a shell of the hitter he was in previous seasons. Ortiz has had his moments with 15 home runs. He is batting .231/.762, but is .250/.911 over the last month.
Pedroia and Ramirez have been two of the most productive players (and, yes, there are even hints of Ramirez becoming better as a left fielder). Ramirez has played through bumps and bruises, and a sore shoulder that slowed him in May. Pedroia hit the DL on June 25 with a strained hamstring but should be back Friday.
If Napoli cannot resurrect his offense, the Red Sox need to make a decision. He remains a black hole in the lineup. Super-utility man Brock Holt can play first. Victorino can help in a part-time role, especially with Alejandro De Aza playing well.
Ortiz may be the key here. He could help ignite this stagnant offense. But if he fades, what does that say about his future, especially with Ramirez looking better suited as a DH?
• Promise/youth. No concerns here because Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are showing themselves as foundations of the future. Swihart filled in ably for two months, improving along the way. Rodriguez looks like a future ace.
We did predict that outfielder Rusney Castillo would be promoted by July. He was promoted in late May (.230/.544 in 26 games) and sent back down to Triple-A on June 24.
Outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. remains stuck in Pawtucket. He obviously can field and seems to have rediscovered his stroke, batting .308/.835 in Triple-A. But Boston has yet to give him a lengthy stay in the majors this year. Should De Aza cool off and Victorino fade, the Red Sox should look at Bradley in right field.
• AL East. In April we talked about the parity of this division and that’s been the case, which is why Boston can contemplate contending. The Yankees (48-40) have been the surprise.
The Yankees, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays all have better pitching than Boston. And all but the Rays score more runs.
Can Boston improve enough to contend? What measures do they take? A series of tweaks and lineup moves, or something drastic?
Boston plays 14 games before the July 31 deadline – two weeks that could determine which direction the Red Sox are headed.
Send questions/comments to the editors.
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