BEIJING — A summer storm is brewing in the South China Sea.

Evidence appears to be mounting that China is pondering another bout of island-building in the South China Sea, and the United States administration and military is already on the alert.

Chinese soldiers stand guard in the Spratly Islands, known in China as the Nansha Islands, on Feb 10. China has built military outposts on the disputed group of 14 islands, islets and more than 100 reefs in the South China Sea. Reuters

Twice last week – and again on Tuesday – the U.S. Pacific Command said it sent warplanes close to Scarborough Shoal, a triangular chain of coral reefs, sand and rocks just off the coast of the Philippines. In Beijing, the response was sharp.

The shoal is the latest point of friction between China, the United States and nations ringing the South China Sea over Beijing’s moves to build maritime outposts and other sites that could have potential future military use.

“Thunderclouds are gathering over the South China Sea, and China is the lightning rod,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia.

China seized the shoal from the Philippines in 2012, and appears to be considering whether to build an artificial island there, experts say. China has already constructed or reclaimed seven islands in the nearby Spratly Islands.

Work on the shoal would be another major step in cementing China’s long-term control of the South China Sea, but it would also significantly raise regional tensions.

Driving the rising tensions: a key ruling by a panel of jurists at a U.N.-appointed tribunal in The Hague that is expected soon. Fearing an unfavorable ruling that could undermine its South China Sea claims, China could be considering a pre-emptive push to begin work on the shoal, known in China as Huangyan Island, experts speculate.

“It’s believed that the rulings will be unfavorable to China and there are concerns that other countries like the United States and Japan will take this opportunity to further challenge China’s territorial claims in the area,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

He predicts China could respond by starting dredging work this year. There is circumstantial evidence to back up that argument.

In February, a plan to expand the shoal into an island containing a runway, harbor, town and resort surfaced on a Chinese website dedicated to military issues. Although a similar – albeit less-detailed – image had circulated in 2012, its recent reappearance was taken by some observers as a sign that the issue was being considered.

In March, the U.S. Navy chief, Adm. John Richardson, told the Reuters news agency the military had seen Chinese shipping activity around Scarborough Shoal, including possible survey work, suggesting it could be “the next possible area of reclamation.”

On Monday, the South China Morning Post quoted an unnamed source “close to” the Chinese navy as saying China would carry out “land reclamation” on the shoal this year.

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