As we head into the final week of August it’s worth a look at what is likely to happen next month in terms of temperature and precipitation.

Long range forecasting is one of those aspects of meteorology and climatology that is far from perfect. When it comes to predicting the climate years and decades in advance we can’t be sure of exactly how the planet will behave, but we do have some good ideas.

But when it comes to predicting the temperature and precipitation pattern for the month ahead meteorologists do a reasonably good job with overall trends.

Learning In Warm Classrooms

Schools will be fully in session by early September and a warm month can make it tough for educators to get kids to focus. I remember at least one professor teaching class on the library lawn at Colby College when September temperatures became a bit warmer than many would like.

Teachers and students should plan for warm conditions inside of school buildings during the upcoming weeks. This means summer, not fall clothes for the kids and an extra serving of hydrating snacks.

This year I expect September to end up warm and dry overall. When the numbers are finally calculated by Oct. 1,  the month will likely have been warmer than the average of the previous 30 Septembers. It will also be drier. I feel quite confident about this prediction, with one caveat. Any tropical storm or hurricane whose moisture does end up in New England can, in a few hours, bring rainfall totals to above average for the month.

The image below shows southern New England is predicted to be very dry, while Maine will be closer to average, but likely won’t see a lot of rain.

While I am predicting a warm month, it doesn’t mean we won’t have a cool period. When averages are calculated they take into account the mean temperature for the entire month. Two, four or even seven days of cooler than average weather more than likely wouldn’t be enough to keep the month from being warmer than average.

Typically, most days average somewhere in the 70s during most of September, I expect quite a few days in the 80s this year.

The map below is the latest forecast from NOAA. Notice Maine has a higher likelihood of being warmer than average in September than anywhere else in New England. The bottom line? The sweaters can stay in the back of the closet and keep the beach blanket handy.