Since Donald Trump’s election victory, the rhetoric over his hard line stance on immigration policies hasn’t cooled a bit. In a recent interview on “60 Minutes,” the president-elect vowed to deport or incarcerate as many a 3 million immigrants.

But what if for all the bluster and threats, the posturing and promises, a Trump administration pursues an immigration strategy not all that different from that of President Obama? For a variety of reasons, that might be where he’s headed. Here’s why.

Central American migrants are fitted for shoes in the Rio Grande Valley border city of McAllen, Texas, Sunday. President-elect Donald Trump's plan to deport immigrants with criminal records sounds a lot like what the government has been doing since President Obama took office. Associated Press/Eric Gay

First, often overlooked by Trump’s more virulent anti-immigrant supporters is that fact that the Obama administration has already set records for deportations. Since 2008, an estimated 2.7 million people have been deported, with an emphasis on the very individuals Trump claims he wants to ship out – gang members, felons and other serious criminals.

So Trump’s immigration stand may not be quite as bold as it appears. Indeed, it would be hard to see the numbers add up otherwise – there simply aren’t 3 million undocumented convicted criminals to deport. The number is more likely under 900,000, according to U.S. Department of Homeland Security and Migration Policy Institute estimates.

Second is a simple lack of deportation infrastructure. Ever try to round up millions of people who don’t want to be caught? During the campaign, Trump spoke of a possible “deportation force,” but Republicans in Congress have pooh-poohed that idea. And it’s not just a lack of immigration agents – detaining suspects and litigating those cases would pose a challenge to existing resources as well.

In fact, there’s already a backup in the court system – perhaps a half-million or more cases – from the Obama administration’s deportation efforts. Trump can vilify the estimated 11 million people living in the U.S. without documentation all he wants, but the law gives those individuals the right to appeal any deportation order.

Given those legal, logistical and resource impediments, it’s entirely possible Trump is pulling a fast one and will simply make more noise about deportation than his predecessors. The building of a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico may prove to be in the same vein – many miles of fencing already exist along the California and Arizona borders, barriers that have proven far from impervious. Meanwhile, more than 40 percent of the undocumented arrive legally but then overstay their visas, making a fence, wall or any other barrier moot.

Yet even if a President Trump doesn’t take any of the draconian measures he has promised, he’s already helped change the American culture – for the worse. Anti-immigrant sentiment is on the rise. Polls show American attitudes toward immigrants from the Middle East, Latin America and Africa are more negative than positive regardless of legal status.

And hate crimes directed toward Mexicans and other Latinos are on the rise as well. More than 400 incidents of harassment and intimidation have been recorded by the Southern Poverty Law Center since Election Day. The leading target? Immigrants, with 136 such cases as of Monday.

Meanwhile, Trump’s attacks on the North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA could lead to a trade war and tariffs that will depress the Mexican economy and motivate more people to enter the U.S. illegally. If all that sounds confusing, you’ve got it about right. Mass deportations are unlikely, but mass hysteria over a bogus immigration threat? That may be closer to what’s in store for the country.

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