UPDATE

As of mid-afternoon, a severe thunderstorm watch was posted for much of southern and central Maine.  Already there have been scattered severe storms.  Some of these storms could contain hail, damaging winds and even small spin-up-type tornadoes.

The threat of severe weather continues into the evening Monday. NOAA Data

As of 2:30 p.m., most of the storms are west of the coastline, but could pop up anywhere this afternoon and evening.

Storms continue to cross the region this afternoon. NOAA

You might have heard of the potential for severe weather late today and early Tuesday. While this is certainly the case, the greatest risk is over western Maine, not in Greater Portland or coastal areas. This doesn’t mean we can’t see severe weather locally, but the chances are just far greater farther west.

The highest risk of severe weather Monday is over interior southern New England. NOAA

Fog and clouds have plagued the coastline much of the weekend and continued to be an issue Monday morning. As the sun breaks through, this heats the atmosphere, making it more conducive for storms. I circled the areas already showing signs of thunderstorm development early Monday.

Showers were showing up early Monday over New York. NOAA

The air has a lot of humidity in it today and this means any rain that falls can be heavy. This is a tropical air mass and this type of air allows a lot of water to fall from the sky in a short period of time.

There is a flash-flood watch posted for the western parts of New England. Some rainfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour today. This type of rain quickly floods roads and low-lying areas.  

Heavy rain could bring some flash flooding over western Maine. NOAA

I expect most of the rain to occur east of a line from Sanford to Augusta this evening and overnight. That said, I can’t rule out a shower this afternoon ahead of the main area. When the sun makes an appearance, temperatures will reach into the 80s again.

Storms will weaken as they approach the coastline.

After the rain, drier air will return to the region. Dew points, in the 60s to low 70s today, will fall to the lower 60s and eventually 50s by Wednesday. This will feel a lot better than the very sticky air present over us right now.

Drier air will arrive late Tuesday and Wednesday. WeatherBell

Once a front pushes east, drier air will move into New England.

The weather overall continues to be rather unsettled and changing rapidly. After a dry couple of days Wednesday and Thursday, humidity and a chance of showers arrive again Friday. If this system keeps moving, we should clear out and see a nice weekend.