This weekend is looking like it has something for everyone. There will be sunshine, warm weather and some much needed rain arriving Columbus Day.  It’s a big tourist weekend with thousands of people arriving in the state, mostly from the south, coming to enjoy everything from the beach to the mountains.  Good weather is critical for most people’s plans and this year we will have two out of the three reasonably good days.

There may be a brief shower or two with a frontal passage Friday.  Eighty percent of us won’t see a thing and for those who do, it won’t last long.  On Saturday, the front will turn around and start moving north through southern New England and eventually to Maine. As it moves north, more humid air will return and will be present for several days.  The humidity will be high enough for some tropical downpours late in the weekend.

We need rainfall.  Last week, the drier-than-average area doubled to nearly 50 percent of the Northeast.  Maine has a full-on drought along much of the coast and eastern areas.

SLOWLY DOWNHILL AFTER SATURDAY

Saturday is my pick for the weekend with the least chance – nearly zero – of any showers.  There will be mixed sunshine and clouds and warm temperatures in the low to mid-70s.  Sunday brings a chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but still with some sunshine breaking through the clouds.  Temperatures will average 10 degrees above normal, reaching well into the 70s. A few 80-degree readings over interior southern Maine are possible.

WHAT ABOUT RAINFALL?

You can see on the loop below how a small line of showers moves in from the west on Sunday.  This is followed by an area of showers or even steady rain Monday from the south.  That will be moisture from Nate, but Nate will not be anything more than some rain by then.  The loop takes us through 8 a.m. Monday.  Notice the rain isn’t forecast to arrive by then, but I do think it will be raining in southern Maine by the afternoon, at least showers.  Plan accordingly if traveling south this weekend out of the state.

A few showers may cross the region Sunday with another area of moisture moving up from the south Monday. Tropical Tidbits

FOLIAGE IS COMING ON SLOWLY

Warm weather during the second half of September and so far this month has slowed the progress of fall color.  Peak foliage rarely coincides with Columbus Day weekend around Portland and along the coast, but in northern Maine the peak is 5-8 days later than some years.  There is color, but temper your expectations.  Once we get into the middle of October the colors should be better along the coast.  The heat this year may end up muting the colors.

Northern New England won’t be in peak color for another week or so. Foliage Network

Follow Dave Epstein on Twitter @growingwisdom