Saturday, April 19, 2014
The Maine People's Resource Center released a new poll Wednesday that surveyed likely voters for the 2014 gubernatorial race and a few other topics.
The results were similar to those reported by Public Policy Polling, the North Carolina-based firm that conducts polls on a variety of topics, including presidential and congressional races.
MPRC is affiliated with the Maine People's Alliance, the liberal activist group that works to elect Democratic candidates, so expect some blowback about the results posted below. The results aren't great for independent Eliot Cutler, who continues to receive not-so-subtle pressure from Democrats to drop out of the race, thereby ensuring an easier path for Democratic candidate Mike Michaud to unseat Republican Gov. Paul LePage.
The preliminary results I received Tuesday night showed Michaud leading the three-way contest, but he runs away with it if he only he and LePage were in the race. The early peek I received did not show a one-on-one between Cutler and LePage.
Regarding accuracy: PPP was rated in the 2012 as the most accurate of any pollster conducting polls in Maine, including the presidential race, the U.S. Senate and the marriage equality referendum with an adjusted error rate of 11.83 points off the final margins of victory. MPRC had an 12.86 error rate, followed by 20.78 for Critical Insights and 22.93 for Pan Atlantic SMS.
Of course, a pollster's error rate can affected by the amount of polling it conducts near Election Day, when voter decisions are bit more firm. This poll, and the PPP one that came before it, took place over year before the 2014 Election, so grains of salt and caveats, please.
The full details of the poll are posted in the Scribd document below.
* 652 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.84
LePage: 37.9/56.9/1.7/3.4 Cutler: 25.9/46.0/21.4/6.7 Michaud: 56.1/31.2/8.8/4.0
If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul LePage, Democrat Mike Michaud and independent Eliot Cutler, who would you vote for?
LePage: 34% Michaud: 40% Cutler: 16.8% Undecided: 9.1%
If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud, who would you vote for?
LePage: 36.1% Michaud: 55.9% Undecided: 7.9%
If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Susan Collins or for a Democratic candidate?
Collins: 59.5% Democrat: 25.7% Undecided: 14.8%
If the election for United States Senate were held today, and the candidates were Republican Susan Collins and independent Eliot Cutler, who would you vote for?
Collins: 57.5% Cutler: 28% Undecided: 14.4%
Maine's non-discrimination law makes it illegal for businesses and organizations to deny services to people based on characteristics like their race, religion or whether or not they are gay or lesbian. Do you support or oppose this law?
All support: 74.3% All oppose: 17.3% Not sure: 8.5%
Some people have proposed creating new laws in Maine that would allow businesses and organizations to deny services to gays and lesbians if it violates their religious beliefs. Would you support such a law?
Yes: 27.7% No: 60.5% Not sure: 11.8%
As you may know, the U.S. Senate recently voted to pass legislation reforming the immigration system. The bill would allow illegal immigrants already in the country to become citizens after 13 years if they pay a fine and learn English. The bill would also double the number of border patrol agents, and double the amount of fencing along the Mexican border. In general, do you support or oppose this bill?
Support : 52.8% Oppose: 29.6% Not sure: 17.5%
Steve Mistler covers politics and government for the Portland Press Herald. He spends a lot of time in the hallways of the State House.