Monday November 18, 2013 | 06:38 AM
Posted by David Epstein

 "Rainy days and Monday's always get me down" according to the late great Karen Carpenter, but the sound of rain pelting against the roof is a sound I love. (did I just admit I like the Carpenters?) What makes it an even better sound today is the rain is quite welcome. It won't be enough to get the ground very wet, but I'll take it.

You might have noticed your heat didn't kick on as often this morning. Temperatures rose into the 50s and even lower 60s in spots during the night and it feels like a spring morning.   Don't get use to this, we have been a bit spoiled since Friday, but the colder air is coming.

Our last cold snap lasted about 2 days.  Last Wednesday, temperatures didn't make it out of the 30s.  I expect that Wednesday will remain our coldest day of the fall for this week, but we won't see anymore 50s or 60s.

A cold front is slicing through the area this morning.  The front marks the leading edge of colder air.  Sometimes when a front passes, it takes many hours for the cold air to become entrenched.  This will be the case today.  After the front passes, it will remain mild for one last day of mild air.  Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to near 60F for much of the day before falling back late this afternoon.  This picture shows temperatures around the country early this morning. Much of the cold air is still back in the Dakotas.

The showers will be ending during the middle of the morning and it will become partly to mostly sunny afterwards.  The image below shows what the radar is forecast to look like at about 10AM this morning.  You could check the actual radar at that time and see the accuracy of this short-range model . I find it does pretty well.

Winds will be strong along and just after the front before slowing day later.  As the sun goes down later this afternoon temperatures will begin to tumble and by Tuesday morning, most of you will see readings in the 30s.  Sunshine will be the dominant feature in our weather until Friday when the next cold front slices through.

The front forecasted to impact our weather at the end of the week and the start of the weekend will being rain and perhaps a few snow showers to the area. Behind this front, on Sunday, cold air will bring a blustery, December like day to the region.  Right now, it appears highs on Sunday will be in the 30s.

Next week is a huge week for traveling.  It's still very early in the forecast game, but early indications are for cold dry weather Monday through Thursday.  I expect the coldest days to be Monday and Tuesday before a moderation of temperature for Wednesday and Thursday.   Whether or not another shot of cold air moves in for "Black Friday" or not is still a big question.   A forecast so far out is difficult to achieve much semblance of accuracy.  The timing of any changes will not be set in stone until we get much closer to the 29th of November.

The image below shows the jet stream as forecast from the GFS model for Thanksgiving.  It's a first look at what the weather could be then.  This will no doubt change, but at this time there are not big storms in the forecast.  The pattern is such, so a big coastal storm isn't likely to just pop-up on the models in a few days.  It's not impossible, but I feel reasonable confident for cold and generally dry weather during the holiday.

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About the Author

David Epstein has been a meteorologist for more than 25 years. He spent 16 years in Boston and currently freelances at WGME13 in Portland.

In 2006, David founded, a business producing educational and marketing videos for the green industry. He currently is a professor at Framingham State College, teaches Jan Plan at Colby College and owns Bloomscapes Inc., a landscape design business.

David authored "Gardens Of New England" and his work has been published in Grolier's Science Annual for 10 years. He lives in South Natick, Mass., and has a summer home in Harpswell.

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