Saturday, March 8, 2014
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And it isn’t the only attempt at cooking the books that has occurred in recent days. It shocked even some who believe in the theory to discover that a number of world governments, including those of Britain, Germany and the United States, had pressured the IPCC’s authors to leave out any discussion of the halt in surface temperature rises entirely.
According to Dr. Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (thegwpf.org), which examines news worldwide about the topic, “Not only has the IPCC failed to predict the ongoing temperature standstill, its climate models actually predicted accelerated warming due to the increase of CO2 emissions.
“Instead of acknowledging empirical facts and growing uncertainties,” Peiser continued, “the IPCC is trying to divert attention from these key issues by claiming increased certainty about the reliability of climate models and their outputs.”
In supporting that omission, some IPCC backers have said that the present hiatus – in which temperatures have fallen below even the lowest level of increase predicted by all the major climate models – is a mere “blip” in the historical record.
And yet, they point to the 22 years from 1976 to 1998, when global temperatures were rising, as determinative about future trends. In what part of science is 16 years a “blip” but a 22-year span offers absolute certainty?
Peiser concludes the “95 percent certainty” designation places the entire enterprise at risk: “The IPCC has taken a huge gamble that will soon determine whether it is still fit for its purpose. Unless global temperatures will begin to rise again in the next few years, the IPCC is very likely going to suffer an existential blow to its credibility.”
Thermometers will move sooner or later, but they go up – or down? Despite their protestations, the IPCC’s scientists and their political and media allies simply do not know.
M.D. Harmon, a retired journalist and military officer, is a freelance writer and speaker. He can be contacted at:firstname.lastname@example.org