The Maine Forecast

Mostly dry, but a few showers possible

Dave Epstein — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 13:12:22 GMT

It was a wild afternoon and evening for parts of the area with vivid lightning, hail, torrential rain and damaging winds. There was no major damage to report from the storms, but my dogs certainly were not thrilled. This morning we find areas of clouds, but also some sunny breaks. While the radar is not showing any precipitation around Maine now, there are two lines of showers back through New York. This area is associated with more atmospheric energy that crosses through later today.

I am keeping showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm in the forecast for this afternoon,but I am not expecting anything as widespread as yesterday.

There are several things that are different in the atmosphere from yesterday so while some storms could become strong to our south, a widespread outbreak of severe weather isn’t likely. The best chance for any thunder will be over southern areas of Maine and points south.

When trying to forecast what type of storms will form during the afternoon we have to look at how the air will behave on its way skyward in building the storms. There isn’t much in weather that is a constant, but we can say that all storms have some lift associated with them. Lift is the mechanism to push the air up and build the storms. Sometimes the lift comes from a front, like today, when cold air is going to push warm air at the ground high into the atmosphere to form thunderstorms.

If the air starts turning on the way up, that can bring the potentials for tornadoes, not something I am expecting in today’s situation. If it’s very cold as the air gets lifted, the rain can get carried around and freeze and build hail. That was the situation some of you saw yesterday.

Once the system passes the area overnight, the lift will be gone and the chance of storms goes to zero. Our weather then takes a quite turn for the rest of the work week with sunshine and comfortable temperatures. As a matter of fact, several towns will see readings in the 40s for a couple of hours just prior to sunrise Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

The weekend is looking very nice with dry condtions and seasonable tempertures. There will be heat and humidty buidling to the south, but for now Maine will stay in the cooler air. As we get into next week there could be some temperatures in the 80s with some more moisture in the air. The sun is reaching its strongest point in the year for us this weekend, but the heat from it take about 4-6 weeks to really build. This is called seasonal lag. Although we have our longest day of the year this week, the hottest is usually around the third week in July.

Pollen levels have fallen again with the rain, but will climb towards the end of the week. There are grass and tree pollens in the air and the pine pollen is still covering things with a yellow film. Although the pine pollen is one of the most visible of the pollens it’s not one of the ones most people are allergic. Although it gets on everything, it’s large size makes it less likely to irritate your eyes and nose.

Gardening this week With all the rain this month your soil might be water logged. Raised beds are a great way to grow flowers, vegetables, even trees and shrubs when you have limited space or need to create a new growing area. In the following video watch how we create a raised bed for a suburban homeowner. You could do the same thing anywhere by just changing the scale to fit your needs.

I'll be updating the details of the showers on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Increasing clouds may bring showers

Dave Epstein — Sun, 16 Jun 2013 14:16:52 GMT

Happy Father’s Day! This morning will end up being the best part of the day as clouds increase and sunshine fades. A frontal system is going to pass through the area late today and with it comes the chance for showers. Dry conditions overall will continue through the morning with the chance of showers increasing after 4 PM. Temperatures will peak early this afternoon before falling back as the clouds thicken.

I'll be updating the details of the showers on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Any showers we see will end overnight. This morning was quite chilly with Berlin, NH falling to 37F. Many other communities recorded readings in the 40s. Tomorrow morning won’t be as chilly. By morning temperatures will be in the 50s under partly cloudy skies. Monday dawns partly to mostly and continues that way all day. There is a renewed chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, but like today, many of us will stay dry.

You will notice a bit of humidity in the air Monday as dew points, a measure of moisture in the air, creep upward. This isn’t going to be a long lasting or particularly intense bout of sticky conditions, just a change from the dry air of the past couple of days. I am forecasting highest temperatures between 74F and 78F around 3PM.

As a new weather system tries to cross through the area Tuesday showers continue in the forecast. Tuesday has the best chance of showers this week, but even that day isn’t a washout and there will be sunshine. Model data is a bit conflicted for how fast weather moves along on Tuesday. The Euro is going with a slower moving system and keeping clouds and the chance for showers going much of the day. I tend to favor the European’s slower solution to Tuesday’s weather. Humidity will be high in the morning before falling back to drier levels in the evening and overnight. Highs on Tuesday reach the upper 70s in spite of the lack of full sunshine.

The rest of the week is looking mighty fine. There will be sunshine and highs reaching the 70s. Nights will be comfortably cool for sleeping. The reason for this patterns is the jet stream is remaining positioned in such a way as to keep any heat and humidity away from New England. During the summer air that comes from the northwest provides us with some of the most comfortable conditions. Because there are no large bodies of water in Canada air in that region doesn’t contain much moisture. We call this continental polar air (cP). You can contrast cP air with maritime tropical air (mT). That is the sticky warm stuff many of us don’t like. There are two other basic types of air masses affecting the lower 48 and these are continental tropical (cT) or dry warm air and maritime polar (mP) cool moist air. Most of our weather is caused by these air masses each fighting for domination and bumping into one another.

Astronomical summer begins later this week which means the longest day of the year is upon us. I put a chart for sunrise and sunset below. As you can see we will still gain a tiny bit of time this week, but this weekend we lose a few seconds of time, don’t worry you won’t notice it just yet.

Gardening this week With all the rain this month your soil might be water logged. Raised beds are a great way to grow flowers, vegetables, even trees and shrubs when you have limited space or need to create a new growing area. In the following video watch how we create a raised bed for a suburban homeowner. You could do the same thing anywhere by just changing the scale to fit your needs.

I'll be updating the details of the showers on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Sunshine will return for the weekend

Dave Epstein — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 11:39:37 GMT

Happy Flag Day. Mid-June is usually much better than this. Another nor'easter is now pushing east and the rain over extreme southern Maine will taper off this morning. If you are around York, Kittery, and up to about Kennebunk there can be some heavier showers early today. The trend will be for improvement this afternoon with some sunshine returning. I can't rule out another pop-up shower or thunderstorm after 3 p.m. today as the air remains unstable.

This morning, a storm is located just east of Cape Cod. If this had been winter, which it feels like in my house today, southern New England would have seen as much as 2 feet of snow in places from this type of setup. Here in Maine we would have mostly missed the storm. Our pattern from February and early March really hasn't stopped, it just took a break in April.

The radar loop below shows heavy rain pivoting through York County. This area must move through before we can begin the process of drying out. The real heavy rain remains across southern New England and will not move northward.

The pattern looks to remain active and more showers are possible from later Sunday and into next week. Temperatures also look to be seasonable, but no big heat is in sight.

The weekend is still looking good; however, we might have issues later Sunday. Saturday high pressure will build into the area and give us a very nice day. Highs will be well into the 70s and the ground will begin to dry. Notice on the map below for Saturday there are not any foul weather systems near New England!

Sunday, all the computer models have a system moving into western Maine. The GFS is faster with this system and therefore has showers moving into the area in the afternoon, the ECMWF (Euro) is slower and holds off the showers until nightfall. This area of showers isn't by any means a big rain maker. Rainfall will be scattered and not heavy. Since it's Father's Day many of you will have outdoor plans including cooking out, heading to the beach or playing a round of golf. There will be sunshine for much of the morning with clouds mixing with the sun in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s and that chance of showers will begin first in the mountains and then move east. I will refine the timing later today and tomorrow. Hopefully, we can keep any rain away until mid-evening, if at all.

If we see showers Sunday night they will push eastward Monday and leave us with a nice warm day. Highs will hit the 70s and it will feel quite nice. Tuesday is a showery day, but Wednesday and Thursday do look drier. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s much of next week. I am not going to try to predict next weekend, I am nervous enough about telling you this one is going to be mostly rain free.

Finally, all these periods of rain are causing issues in gardens. There are products out there that work to prevent fungus which is the biggest issue. Red thread in lawns is very common and although unsightly, it will grow out. You know you have red thread if you have patches of lawn that look like they're dying and there is fuzzy pink or red stuff on the grass. A shot of fertilizer often can help the lawn grow out of this problem. More gardening information is below.

Gardening this week: With all the rain this month your soil might be water logged. Raised beds are a great way to grow flowers, vegetables, even trees and shrubs when you have limited space or need to create a new growing area. In the following video watch how we create a raised bed for a suburban homeowner. You could do the same thing anywhere by just changing the scale to fit your needs.

I'll be updating the details of the rain on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

More rain headed to the area

Dave Epstein — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 15:14:03 GMT

After a wet morning, the rain is now exiting southern Maine. Our break in the wet weather will be brief and I am reminded of the saying “be careful what you wish for”. The saying is stuck in my head as I think back to the first week of May after 4 weeks of little rain. Since that time we have had well above average amounts of rain and more is on the way, definitely too much of a good thing.

I'll be updating the details of the rain on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

A wet June isn’t fun. This is the month that summer is supposed to begin. So far this June many areas have had over 3 inches of rain and the month isn’t half over yet. One of the farms I drive past in the morning has several of its rows sitting in water. You might not remember, but last June was also wet with Portland seeing over 7 inches of rain.

The cause of this round of rainy weather is the same thing that prevented the rain in early spring, the jet stream. The jet stream controls the movement of air masses and the weather associated with them. Since mid-May the jet stream has been very active near New England. Remember, April was not only dry here, there was very little tornado activity elsewhere. With the jet stream becoming more active last month, the frequency of severe weather increased as did our rain events.

Below is a loop that shows the winds at around 30,000 feet for the next 10 days. If you look at the flow you can see that the dips continually move through New England. This means we will continue to have days that rain, some it heavy, are an issue.

Our next round of rain arrives tomorrow and continues Thursday night. In simplistic terms, we have another nor’easter that will give us heavy rain. The rain will be quite heavy Thursday night and another 1 to 2 inches could fall. On Friday the rain ends early in the morning and skies can brighten in the afternoon. Temperatures remain cool only in the 60s tomorrow and upper 50s and lower 60s Friday, this is far below what we would expect in mid-June.

An area of dry weather will arrive for the weekend and with the strong sunshine temperatures return to more typical readings. On Saturday highs will reach the lower 70s and could nudge 80F on Sunday. I am not expecting any chance of rain and there will be mostly clear skies both days. Low amounts of humidity in the air mean that the nights will be comfortable for sleeping as well.

Although the weekend weather looks great, this doesn’t mean the pattern has changed. During next week I expect several more chances of rain, some it heavy and humidity levels are going to increase. This means more opportunities for possible flooding and not many chances for things to dry out.

Patterns like this will break, but how much longer we have to go through it is a bit of a mystery. I do have access to the European model and what is called the monthly control. This model gives a daily forecast for the next 30 days. What I see it showing into early July is a continued wet and cooler than normal pattern. This doesn’t mean 30 days of rain, but any heat we get doesn’t look like it will last very long.

I'll be updating the details of the rain on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Dry afternoon to become a wet night

Dave Epstein — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 14:25:33 GMT

More rain is on the way. There are flood watches up from Virginia to Maine this morning for all the heavy rain on the way. I am expecting a general 1 to 2 inch rainstorm beginning late today and continuing overnight. When you combine this additional rainfall with the heavy rain from Friday we start to run the risk of more urban and street flooding. Also, rivers and streams are running rather high so there can be some flooding of the smaller rivers and streams.

The rain will begin over York and Cumberland Counties around the evening commute home and spread northward from there. A few showers my pop up before then, but the heavy rain is going to hold off until after dark.

A storm system is going to cross the region from the west overnight. As this area moves east, warmer air will attempt to move north. However, because of the position of the jet stream the warm air won’t make it into most of southern New England. What the air will do is act as a mechanism to bring copious amounts of rain northward. Highs today will reach upper 60s to around 70F and then fall back a bit as clouds thicken later this afternoon and the rain arrives.

The radar loop below shows all the rain that is poised to move into the area and be with us overnight. You can see it is still fairly far south as of mid-morning. The reds and yellows on the radar represent the heaviest rain while the greens and blues are lighter rain.

The heaviest of the rain will be over by morning, but there is the risk for more showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm later in the day. The key to any additional rainfall tomorrow will be if we see any sunshine and warm temperatures.

There will be a boundary between the cool marine air and the warm and humid air just to the south. The models are indicating that only southwest Connecticut will break into the warm air tomorrow. This means that we will remain cool and cloudy with a few showers. Temperatures will stay in the 50s to near 60F most of the day.

The weather will improve a bit for Wednesday, but showers are still possible. On Thursday another area of rain will threaten. How far north the rain moves isn’t quite known yet. For now, I am going to keep showers out of the forecast, but be aware this can change. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s both Wednesday and Thursday.

The good news is that Friday and the weekend are looking very nice with a lot of sunshine, low humidity and comfortable temperatures. All the heat building across the southwest part of the country this week is going to stay in that region for the foreseeable future.

Gardening this week You might not know it, but a disease that is affecting impatiens is going to be a problem again later this summer. This bacteria, which came over from Europe two years ago is now in over 30 states. I recommend not planting impatiens as the spores are airborne and likely will kill your plants later in July and early August just as they are looking great. I did a video on some alternatives to them here. Check it out.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Clearing on the way for southern Maine

Dave Epstein — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 12:58:57 GMT

Our heavy overnight and early morning rain is now departing the area and the sun will make an appearance from southwest towards the northeast later today. If you look at the radar image from this morning below, you can see the twist in the circulation of the storm just east of Portland.

Rainfall hasn’t been that high with most spots less than 2 inches. Some impressive rainfall amounts have fallen from the storm to our south with over 5 inches of rain around West Bridgewater in Massachusetts. As expected, the rainfall totals are quite different from spot to spot much as a winter snowfall map would show.

Maine remained on the cool side of the storm, but as the storm passed near Block Island we clearly saw the two sides any low pressure area has in the northern hemisphere. To the right of the center is the warm and windy side, while to the left it’s cooler and wetter. Check out the reports from 6AM in southern New England this morning. Notice the winds are from the south in places like Falmouth, MA while they are northerly in Boston. That shows how the winds circulate around these storms.

As the morning progresses skies will brighten and I expect some breaks of sunshine this afternoon. As some atmospheric energy crosses the region later today a thunderstorm or shower could pop. If you see these additional showers they could be briefly heavy. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A comfortable night with dry conditions and temperatures in the 50s will blend into a very nice Sunday with abundant sunshine and warm air. Highs tomorrow will reach the 70s and with the early sunrise of around 5, it’s a great chance to hit the local beaches for the day.

A few more showers are likely early next week but I am not expecting a washout. The best chance for more rain appears to be Monday night and Tuesday. More details as we get closer. Next weekend is Father’s Day and an early look has partial sunshine and temps in the 70s for the afternoon.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Flood warnings and watches overnight

Dave Epstein — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 01:30:30 GMT

Heavy rain continue to spread north overnight. Already flood warnings are in effect for almost all of southern New England. Here in Maine we have flood watches for mostly street and small stream flooding. This map shows areas in green that currently have a flood watch. I don’t expect widespread river flooding from this system. By tomorrow afternoon the rain will be over and skies will partially clear. We should see anywhere from 2-3 inches of rain with some isolated 4 inch amounts possible away from the coast. The image below is radar loop that shows the edge of the steadiest rain just entering southern Maine. The rain is steadies and heaviest from Portland south along the coast, but will be increasing in intensity statewide this evening.

Normal rainfall for June is just over 3 inches so we are looking at about a month’s worth of rain in twenty-four hours. While this is certainly a healthy amount of water, it’s not going to cause widespread flooding.

The storm is moving quite quickly so we won’t see a repeat of October 1996 when a week of heavy rain cause widespread flooding and shut down the Maine Turnpike or June 1998 when nearly a foot of rain fell parts of southern Maine. Nonetheless, there will be street and urban flooding and if you have a basement prone to flooding during heavy rain you should check your sump pumps and other forms of drainage. If you are on the highways this evening and overnight, the rain may come down hard enough at times to make driving very difficult.

Another spot water can collect is around and in window wells. Last fall I had water pouring in the basement because the drainage in the window had become clogged with dirt and leaves and had not place to go besides inside.

Wind isn’t going to be an issue with this event. This is good because it means the rain won’t be driven against the house. Wind driven rain has a way of finding its way into places it doesn’t belong.

It might be too late to do this by the time you read this, but you could throw some seed down in any bare spots on the lawn. The caveat is you must scratch the surface of the soil and not be on a slope where the rain will just wash it away. Because the weather looks quite unsettled the next week you will have additional chances to do this.

Our current heavy rain is being caused by a frontal system that is picking up the rains from Andrea's remnants. As I wrote yesterday, the rain is over early Saturday morning and I expect skies to brighten and pockets of sunshine to develop. Today it will remain cool with temperatures only in the middle to upper 50s. Tomorrow as the sun breaks out our high temperatures should rebound well into the 60s. Sunday is the best of the two days with highs in the 70s. There is still the risk of an isolated shower for Sunday afternoon, but most of you remain dry.

If you are headed to the beach this weekend it will turn brighter and drier throughout Saturday. Water temperatures are still running in the upper 50s and lower 60s so swimming is still a bit challenging for most.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

How much rain from Andrea this weekend?

Dave Epstein — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 14:09:56 GMT

We do have rain on the way, but much of the weekend is going to be dry and rain free. I would not cancel outdoor plans for the weekend especially those from Saturday at noon onward. If you have an outdoor event or game Saturday morning, that might be a problem. Let’s get right to the overview and then I will give you the specifics and try to break down both days as best as possible.

I'll be updating the weekend forecast throughout the day on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

There are two areas of rain that are going to impact Maine. The first area is over the Ohio Valley this morning and will move northeast during the day. I expect the entire day to be dry. This area will move across the region overnight and Friday morning. I am not expecting the rain to be heavy or amount to more than a quarter to half inch at most. The greatest amounts of rain will be over the foothills and interior southern Maine, but even the coast will have some wet weather.

There will be a break in the rain during the middle of the day Friday before the second batch of rain moves into the region from what is now tropical storm Andrea. While this is a tropical storm, it’s not going to be a damaging storm. The biggest threat from this weather system will be heavy rain, and even that won’t be so bad or long-lasting.

The term tropical storm is given to weather systems that originate in warm tropical waters and whose meteorological structure is tropical in nature as opposed to a storm that formed over land or in cold northern waters. The media loves it when these storms get named because it gives a chance to call even more attention to the weather. Sometimes the “hype” is justified; this isn’t one of those cases.

Andrea is currently in the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually land herself along on the Florida Panhandle. From there the storm will ride up along the coast basically as a nor’easter. By the time the storm arrives here it will no longer be tropical and the name will be gone.

Just like a winter nor’easter the exact track of the storm is critical to the impacts of the storm. If the storm tracks farther offshore any heavy rain will stay off the coast. If the storm tracks closer to the coast the heavy rain will move farther inland. For Maine to be affected by heavy rain the storm must move north of Boston and not be shunted out to sea to our south. You can see the latest forecast track below.

Tropical systems have a windy and a wet side. The windy side is to the right of the center of the storm and the wet side is to the left. The windy side will remain to our south and east. Therefore, I am not concerned about any wind issues.

Rainfall from the storm will be on the order of 1-2 inches with a few isolated higher amounts. The map below shows the total rain that will fall over the next three days. You can clearly see how the rainfall is a result of Andrea or the remnants of the storm. The map only shows how much rain falls over the next few days, not which days it occurs. Notice much of the heavy rain is south of Maine.

I expect the rain to be steadiest and heaviest from about 7 p.m. tomorrow through 8 a.m. Saturday. Because the storm is moving up from the south, areas in southern York County will see the rain begin and end first and areas to the north begin and end last.

Whenever we get over an inch of rain in a short time there is the risk for some flooding. With the possibility of 2 or more inches of rain some flooding becomes more likely. Our ground isn’t saturated and we have not had a lot of rain this spring. Therefore, any flooding that occurs will most likely be street, basement, and small streams, not large rivers. This is just a possibility and I will fine tune the forecast later today and overnight.

Once the rain ends Saturday morning skies will begin to brighten and there can be some clearing in the late afternoon. While I am not expecting a perfect day, I would not cancel outdoor activities due to rain. The ground may be wet, but it won’t be raining much of the day. Temperatures will remain cool with highs mostly in the 60s.

On Sunday, I am expecting more in the way of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Highs will reach into the 70s for several hours either side of 3 p.m. Next week is still a bit in question with regard to how much rain and cloudiness we have around here. I can say with confidence we are not going to see any hot weather for at least a week to 10 days.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Two perfect days then a wet start to the weekend

Dave Epstein — Tue, 04 Jun 2013 13:41:29 GMT

Ah June, the month when summer officially begins. We have already had a heat wave in a few places and certainly hot weather all around. Now the pattern looks like it is going to go into a cooler and damper mode.

I know when I write something like that the first thing you might think is that it is going to rain the rest of the month. While there certainly have been June’s where the weather doesn’t cooperate, this doesn’t appear to be a washout of a month. That said, the pattern is definitely going to be undergoing a change.

June is also the start of hurricane season. Hurricanes develop in the early part of the season in different spots than they typically do during say September. This time of the year, and again in October and November, the Gulf of Mexico is often a spot for tropical activity.

Today we are watching an area of disturbed weather which could become our first named storm. Andrea starts the list this year and then goes through Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.

Names are decided years in advance by the World Meteorological Organization. The names represent the countries adjacent to the body of water the storms will occur. Atlantic names have a Caribbean and American flavor to them. Names like Irene, Sandy, Andrew, Carol, Diane, Hazel, David etc. have been retired as those storms were deadly.

Our weather towards the end of the may have a tropical connections as an area of tropical weather could get involved with a system moving across the northern part of the country. Sometimes, these systems can pull up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This type of pattern can lead to periods of heavy tropical downpours. The most likely time for this will be Friday night or Saturday and we will know much more tomorrow and Thursday. Suffice to say, the first part of the weekend isn’t looking like great weather.

After the system clears the area we will have at least a day of dry weather and this will give us a better second half of the weekend. More unsettled and somewhat cool air continues into early next week with additional rounds of showers.

Beyond that, I don’t see any major outbreaks of heat on the horizon although June is not typically a month of extreme heat in New England.

Let me back up to our weather the next few days. High pressure stays in control with lots of sunshine and dry cool temperatures. As a matter of fact, some inland valley areas will be in the upper 30s Wednesday morning. Highs the next few days will average in the lower 70s. As clouds increase Thursday, it will be cooler and a few showers could break out by the end of the day. After that our eyes turn south to see how much rain we get for the start of the weekend.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Cooler at coast, hot inland, storms tonight

Dave Epstein — Sun, 02 Jun 2013 14:25:00 GMT

A very warm, but not hot day is underway for southern and central Maine. The warmest spots will once again be interior York and Cumberland counties with areas around Hollis, Sanford, Buxton, and Bridgton closing in on the 90F mark. In order to predict the high for the day, we look to what the temperature of the air is at around 5000 feet. This spot in the atmosphere gives us a good idea of the potential high temperature at the ground. For the past couple of days the temperature at around 5000 feet has been about 16C or around 60F. As this air is heated, it can reach the lower 90s in the afternoon. Today, the temperature structure is similar to the past couple of days, but with a few more clouds this afternoon and a the wind coming off the water coastal areas will remain in the 70s and 80s. If a few inland areas do hit 90F they will register and official heat wave, 3 days in a row of reaching that mark or higher.

I'll be updating the thunderstorm situation this afternoon and evening on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Later this afternoon our focus turns to the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy downpours. Often when a bought of heat breaks it does so with severe weather. The cold front that will ultimately bring an end to the heat and humidity is still far to our west. (see the map below) However, energy in the atmosphere will help build thunderstorms this afternoon before the actual front passes Monday morning. This means we will have a prolonged chance for showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon and evening until mid-Morning Monday.

The greatest chance for severe weather will be during the first part of the overnight, but heavy downpours are possible in waves of showers early Monday. The timing of the rain is such that the Monday morning commute could be impacted.

During this upcoming severe weather threat hail, strong winds and lightning will be the biggest possible problems. Tornadoes have gotten a lot of attention the past week and while I can’t rule out the possibility, the set-up tonight isn’t very favorable that type of activity.

As I wrote, the first part of tomorrow could be quite wet with one or two rounds of showers heaviest in the morning. Late in the day, as the main cold front passes, the air will become less humid. Tomorrow’s high temperatures will be in the 70s, but with all the moisture in the air, it will still feel muggy much of the day.

Finally on Tuesday, drier air will become firmly entrenched across the area. Temperatures are going to be quite pleasant with highs in the 70s. It’s been a bit uncomfortable for sleeping, if you don’t have air conditioning, the past several nights, but next week looks entirely different.
Several mornings will be in the 40s and I would not be surprised if some interior spots see readings into the very upper 30s for several early risers. This will be a welcome change after the sticky weather of the recent past.

Late next week, more clouds and possible showers or steady rain is possible. It’s too early to nail down a forecast for the upcoming weekend at this point, but I can all but guarantee it won’t be a very hot and humid one.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Some heat and humidity, but not record breaking

Dave Epstein — Fri, 31 May 2013 11:45:48 GMT

After a warm and muggy night a pair of very hot days is on the way. Temperatures today, while warm, will remain below record levels. The record high in Portland is 94F and this is also the record for May. I don't think we will break it, although if winds don't turn to a sea breeze in the afternoon, we could hit 90F even in the Forest City. The point here is that it's going to be a very hot day by May and even summer standards. Inland areas will be in the lower 90s with Bridgton, Fryeburg and Sanford the hot spots this afternoon. The reason for the heat is the same as it often is during the summer.

An area of high pressure sits off the coast of the eastern seaboard and pumps warm and humid air into New England from the south. This high, often referred to as a Bermuda high is locked in place for a couple of more days.

If this was July or August, the high can sit for many days in a row, but since it's still late May/early June, the cooler drier air to the north still has some force and will break down the high later Sunday and Monday. This means our heat, while early, intense and near record breaking won't last a long time. The position of the high does allow the air quality to deteriorate. Therefore an air quality alert has been posted for the mid-coast of Maine and points further east. You might be surprise that Mount Desert Island has some of the poorest air quality in Maine as the are at the end of the dirty air train. The good news is that even with that said, there aren't a lot of days of bad air anymore as there was back 30 years ago. I'll be updating the air quality and heat forecasts Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

There will be plenty of sunshine the next two days and the chance for any showers is nearly zero. This doesn't mean a shower can't pop up in the mountains or foothills, it's just a very remote possibility. On Sunday clouds will keep temperatures a bit cooler and a few showers could occur in the early afternoon. Later Sunday evening a more widespread area of showers and storms will cross Maine and begin the end to the heat.

By Monday, cooler air will be in place and while humidity levels will take part of the day to truly drop, the rest of next week looks quite comfortable with temperatures in the 70s. I measured about 3 inches of rain since last Saturday and that has helped alleviate the short-term water issues many of us were seeing. With all this heat and adequate moisture, we have the perfect combination for optimal growth of trees and shrubs. You might find yourself needing to cut back a few things this weekend.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Showers and storms today then first heat of summer

Dave Epstein — Wed, 29 May 2013 10:59:08 GMT

Knowing we have a couple of days of warm weather on the way, you can’t imagine how exciting it is to a gardener to hear the sound of rain at 5AM. Bleary eyed I run to the radar hoping that the extent of the showers is large and that the rain won’t be over quickly. This morning we find widely scattered showers crossing the region. After these showers end, there won’t be a lot of rain left behind.

I'll be updating the forecast for the upcoming weekend on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Unlike me, if you are a commuter having to drive to work on wet roads with scattered heavy downpours the sound of the rain might raise your anxiety level knowing the long drive to the office just got a bit longer.

Big heat arrives behind warm fronts and this morning we find a warm front draped to our south. You can see this on the image below. The warm front is the red line. To the north of these fronts, cooler air sits waiting to be pushed away by the heat and humidity. All fronts are different. Some of these dividing lines can move through rather quickly going from the mid-Atlantic area to New England in a few hours, other take much longer sometimes days or never even making to this far north. Our front is going to take some time to move through the area and therefore showers and the risk of thunderstorms are in the forecast through the overnight.

Our first band of showers will likely be over by the time some of you read this. The only remnants will be the wet grass and puddles on the pavement. Clearing behind these showers will not be quick and as a matter of fact, coastal areas my see very little sunshine today which is a good thing. The reason sunshine today isn’t great is that the air going to become quite unstable. This means that the potential for thunderstorms will increase if we get any sunshine.

This afternoon and evening more storms will fire up to our west and begin to move eastward. In those areas that get sunshine today these storms could be strong or severe with gusty winds, downpours and hail. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish later tonight. Some of these storms could be strong to severe especially over interior parts of York and southern Cumberland counties and parts of southwest New Hampshire.

Heat Wave

A heat wave is defined, in this part of the country, as three or more days in a row where the temperature reaches or exceeds 90F. The official records are kept at Portland which very often gets a sea breeze and prevents an official heat wave from occurring. Many many times places like Sanford Fryeburg, Bridgton, and surrounding areas have a heat wave, but the coast doesn’t. Even inland this first blast of heat most likely will not last three days, so it won’t be a heat wave, but it will be close.

There might be a few clouds tomorrow morning, and then the sun and the heat are on as the air warms up towards 90F. Portland most likely won’t hit 90F, but Sanford and Bridgton will be close. Friday and Saturday will be the warmest of the next few days with several towns reaching 85-90F.

On Sunday, more clouds mixed with the sunshine with showers and storms likely in the afternoon and evening. While it will still be muggy, the air will start to cool and I expect highs to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Next week turns much more seasonable for early June.

Gardening this week After moving plants around my yard the past several years because they keep getting bigger and bigger I decided to do a video about just how big some of those plants you see in the nursery will become. While they may only be a foot or two tall today, just wait a few years. Check out how big some of the more typical garden center trees and shrubs can grow. I would be interested in any stories you have from your own garden. Tweet me @growingwisdom

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Cool with a few showers, but much better Monday

Dave Epstein — Sun, 26 May 2013 16:49:50 GMT

The biggest irony of the day has to be the closure of Santa’s Village today as they clean up all the snow. I have had several are you kidding me moments of my own this weekend. First, the temperature in the house was under my turn the heat on threshold of 60F, standing at a chilly 58F this morning. As I sit here in the “sunroom” writing this blog I am bundled up with wool socks, a sweatshirt and a hat. Normally, I reserve hot chocolate for those cold snowy mornings but found myself craving it this morning. A few nights ago I was throwing the covers off the bed because I was so warm at night, last night I found myself reaching for the blanket on the floor. Although I refuse to put the heat on in the house, I gladly turned the blower and heat on high in the car on the way to walk the dogs this morning.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

In New Hampshire and Vermont, some of the mountain areas had over half a foot of snow and there was snow mixed with the rain into western sections of Maine last night.

Our rain deficit continues to shrink and we are much close to normal as this point. Although we have some heat coming at the end of the week, we are ok without any rain for a while.

This afternoon

Showers continue to pinwheel around the low pressure area to our east. These showers are moving north very slowly and will continue on and off this afternoon mostly north and west of Portland. Winds will be brisk and while it is going to be milder than yesterday, it’s anything but a warm spring day.

Monday

Memorial Day does look very nice. There should be plenty of sunshine and temperatures will be much warmer as they reach back into the upper 60s to near 70F. For hard core beach goers you could head to the shore and spend some time in the sun. It will be a bit breezy and with dry air in place it might feel a bit cool, but after today, you might think it’s a heat wave.

Heat and humidity

Tuesday looks like another nice day with more sunshine and pleasant temperatures. For me, this is the pick of the week as it will be comfortably warm and not hot. Wednesday is a transitional day between the temperatures in the 70s and temperatures getting into the middle 80s Thursday and Friday. As a warm front approaches the area Wednesday, showers and even some thunderstorms will break out during the afternoon. As the front pushes to the north Thursday heat and moderate levels of humidity will be with us and that weather will close out the month of May and usher in June. The warmth won’t be long lived as next week looks more seasonable in the temperature department.

Check out the chart below which shows how temperatures and rainfall are forecast (using the GFS model) for the next week. It’s interesting how high temperatures are forecast after a cold weekend. While these numbers won’t be exactly right, it does give you an idea of the upcoming trends.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Rain continues overnight, slow improvement Sunday

Dave Epstein — Sun, 26 May 2013 02:29:56 GMT

This had to be one of the worst May 25ths of weather on record, wouldn’t you agree? A cold rain, a gusty wind and rawness to the air just seemed to go right through your bones. This was certainly a far cry from this day back in 2007 when it was a record 92F! We are nearing the peak of this late May nor’easter and by early afternoon Sunday things will be improving. The rest of the night looks to feature more rain and some of it could be heavy at times.

The rain of the past few days has made a big dent in our precipitation deficit and we are now only about 20% below the normal rainfall as opposed to the nearly 50% of just a week ago. May is most likely going to end up a slightly wetter month than average, which was needed.

Sunday

As low pressure moves to the north more showers are in the forecast, but it won’t rain all the time. As a matter of fact, the afternoon will see some improvement. The best chance for showers will be in the morning and I expect skies to brighten and even see some sunshine before sunset after 8PM. These are the longest days of the year after all and if we get some clearing around 6PM it still leaves a couple of hours of sunshine.

Monday

Heat and humidity

There are early signs of very warm and humid air for later next week. As is often typical in late spring we may go from several days of chilly temperatures to sweltering heat in a short time. Temperatures will be in the 80s for several days next week and maybe even higher. Stay tuned.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Cool and wet, but also many hours of dry weather this weekend

Dave Epstein — Fri, 24 May 2013 18:40:54 GMT

Cold and wet, that is the theme for this year’s Memorial Day weekend although it’s not a 3 day washout by any means. While it is rather muggy and warm this morning, colder air will filter into the region during the day. This is going to set up a very chilly pair of days this weekend.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

The weather story for the next several days starts with a cold front inching its way through Maine today. The problem for the weekend is that the front will get stuck just to our east. While this frontal system sits along the coast a storm will develop on it and bring a few rounds of rain to the region especially Saturday and Saturday night. Sunday will be a day with showers, but there can be a few dry hours.

Friday

Today is going to be a transitional day from muggy air to cool and wet conditions. The cold front that caused all the severe weather a few days ago in the center of the country pass by the area. Earlier this week it appeared the front would move far enough away to give us a nice weekend. However, now the models are showing this front slowing down quite a bit. When fronts get stuck along our coast it often spells trouble. The front acts like a track for areas of rain to ride along. Until the front moves far enough away the chance of rain continues. Temperatures are going to be cooler tomorrow only in the 60s and during the afternoon they may actually drop a bit.

Saturday

An area of rain will move through the area at the same time cool air is in place. Temperatures are not only going to be way below normal, some spots might stay in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most of the day. Rainfall could be heavy at times, early the morning. Along the coastline drier air should shut the rain off completely for several hours and skies may brighten a bit. Inland and in the mountains the showers should continue longer with less chance for the dry periods. Take a look at the map below. Notice the area circled in green. Those areas will be wettest on Saturday.

Sunday

More areas of showers and steady rain are forecast to push across the region, but the exact position of the storm Sunday morning will determine where the heaviest rain occurs. It is still going to be very cool and some of the highest elevations could indeed see snow mixing in with the rain especially at the end of the day.

Monday

Memorial Day does look better. There should be some sunshine but temperatures will still be cool. It won’t be a beach day, but after two lousy days of weather a vast improvement. Warmer and more typical weather for late May does return for Tuesday, just in time to head back to work.

Heat and humidity

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Chilly and damp then warm and muggy then back again

Dave Epstein — Wed, 22 May 2013 10:02:09 GMT

After a stormy weekend last weekend across the nation’s mid-section I blogged about how tornadoes form and why we don’t see them much across New England. Little did I realize over the next two days one of the stronger tornadoes to hit the United States would destroy much of Moore Oklahoma and that southern New England would have our own tornado warnings. The weather has fluctuated greatly the past couple of days as cool ocean air and warm and humid tropical air has oscillated back and forth across the area. Portland was in the 40s last evening while is was in the 80s just a few hours to the south. I often write about the power of the east wind and how if the wind shifts blowing towards the water to coming from the water temperatures can change dramatically. I have seen a heat wave broken in a matter of 30 minutes with people needing jackets after a temperature near 90F less than an hour earlier. Today, as winds switch again, warm and humid air will flow north and east. The warm air won’t make it to the coast, but far inland areas might bump up to the 70s this afternoon. When I think about the chance for more showers and storms later today, I look to which areas will be warmest, have the most sun, and have something to lift that warm and humid air upward to produce storms. We all could see a few showers, but the best chance for thunderstorms will be in New Hampshire and southern New England. Temperatures may actually move up during the night as the warm air continues to move into the region. There is still the risk for showers and scattered storms but I don’t see anything severe. Thursday, the front that has caused much of the severe weather in the nation’s heartland will approach New England. While this front was the catalyst for much severe weather the past several days, I don’t expect the weather to be nearly that problematic in New England. However, there is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and we will certainly have to watch the radar very closely to see how the situation unfolds. The front is moving very slowly so the showers will be in the forecast through the end of the week. On Friday the front will continue to move east. Since this front is moving so slowly, it will bring a few periods of showers throughout the day. Temperatures will be cool and the higher levels of humidity will drop. Saturday doesn’t look good. A storm will move up the coast along the front and with cool air in place it is going to feel like early April or even late March. Showers will be numerous and some of the higher elevations could see a bit of snow mixing in with any rain. Yes, I did just write that. It will be in the 50s most of the day. The weather looks good the rest of the weekend with a blend of clouds and sunshine, dry levels of humidity and very cool temperatures. While this won’t be a weekend to go swimming, it will be a perfect Memorial Day for all late spring outdoor activities. You will need a jacket if you are an early riser as many towns are going to see low temperatures in the upper 30s and lowers 40s while highs reach back to the 60s in the afternoon.

Gardening this week Japanese maple trees are one of the best ornamental trees you can put in your yard. I have a total of about a dozen scattered everywhere from the front of the house to the back. Check out some of the best varieties in this week's video.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Tornadoes in the nations heartland won't affect Maine

Dave Epstein — Tue, 21 May 2013 01:58:41 GMT

What a horrible day across tornado alley. For the past several days folks across much of the Midwest have seen multiple outbreaks of tornadoes. Tornadoes are one of nature’s most ferocious phenomena. Here in Maine tornadoes are relatively rare, however we do get them. The last major outbreak of tornadoes was back in the summer 201o when two tornadoes ripped through Gorham and Limerick.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

So what causes these ferocious spinning wind machines and why don’t we see more of them here in the northeast?

Tornadoes form as part of a thunderstorm. Only a thunderstorm has strong enough meteorological dynamics to produce a true tornado. That said, there are other tornado-like phenomena that can occur in the absence of a thunderstorm. Cold air funnels and dust devils are two such examples. You probably have seen leaves whirling around in a parking lot on a sunny day in something that looked like a mini tornado. Those are dust devils. They develop over hot surfaces, like a parking lot or the desert, and can sometimes reach wind speeds similar to a weak tornado. Cold air funnels are a bit more meteorologically complicated, but basically occur when unusually cold air becomes part of a large dying low pressure area. They are very short-lived, weak and don’t often hit the ground.

Another very dangerous and real tornado like phenomena is a “fire whirl”. These nasty things occur in forest fires when the hot air begins to rise and circulate. Basically, you have a tornado of fire, not something I want to experience.

What we are seeing on the news today are more typical tornadoes that come from very large thunderstorms called supercells. These storms actually rotate. I am not referring to the tornado, but the thunderstorm itself which actually has its own rotation.

The reason the storms rotate is that the winds are relatively weak and the ground and much stronger in the middle of the thunderstorm. Picture a pipe lying horizontally just above the ground. If you moved air faster over the top of the pipe than you had at the base, the pipe would start to spin. Now that spinning would be parallel to the ground.

In a thunderstorm the warm air is raising so fast, it picks up that rotation and moves it so it’s perpendicular to the ground. You can see the progression of this in the image below.

The picture shows a supercell thunderstorm rotating, while there is no tornado in this image, it would be possible for one to have developed.

The reason some supercell thunderstorms produce tornadoes and others don’t isn’t fully understood. Research suggests the rotation air is squeezed at the ground and then pulled up into the air. The squeezing is similar to a skater pulling in their arms to spin faster. This process is called vortex stretching. This process occurs from the ground up and yes it does mean a tornado can form at the ground first.

More recent research has found that there is both clockwise and counterclockwise spin at the ground which gets pulled up due to the strong updrafts in the thunderstorms. The image below shows a hose like structure with either end of the hose spinning in different directions. It’s from the end spinning counterclockwise that the tornado forms, although in rare cases a tornado can form on the other side.

Tornadoes are ranked on the enhanced Fujita scale which runs from F0 to F5. The tornadoes that have killed so many people in Oklahoma today were at least F4 tornadoes. This means winds were close to 200 miles per hour.

A tornado that has not reached the ground is called a funnel cloud and a tornado over water is called a waterspout. While the United States has more tornadoes than anywhere else in the world, they do occur in Europe, Australia and parts of southern Africa.

One of the main reasons we don’t see many tornadoes here in New England is that we have the cool ocean to our east. Ocean air is exactly what thunderstorms don’t want. Cool air knocks down the strong updrafts in a supercell storm and causes them to weaken rapidly. Often a line of strong storms in western New England becomes a weak line of showers by the time it hits York, Portland or Brunswick. While there are storms in the forecast for this week, I don’t see anything severe.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Some rain this week, but not a washout

Dave Epstein — Sun, 19 May 2013 14:25:19 GMT

This time of the year, the difference between summer warmth and humidity and springtime clouds and showers can be just a few miles apart and a quick wind shift away. Over the next few days that dividing line is going to waffle north and south through New England providing a variety of weather from Maine to Connecticut.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Today we are still on the “cool” side of the front with not much humidity. A gentle wind off the water will keep coastal locations from Saco to Brunswick in the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon.   There will be plenty of sunshine although clouds increase in the afternoon.

Overnight, as a front moves to our north, showers will cross the area. Tomorrow you will notice more humidity in the air and it will feel a bit like summer. It’s not going to be hot, but the moisture in the air will make it feel sticky.

We desperately need rain.   The amount of rain that is going to fall over the next 4 or 5 days is somewhat in question and dependent on the exact placement of the boundary between the cool and warm air.

It looks like there will be two or three rounds of showers between now and Friday. When we arrive at next weekend many towns will have seen about a half to an inch of rain.    In these situations rainfall can vary a bit so you still might have to water on your own. The best day of weather, after today, will be Tuesday when drier air works in from the north.

On Tuesday, that same front that brings tonight’s showers is going to do a 180° and move back towards Connecticut. This will allow cooler and drier air to flow back into the area. This means that the chance of any rain is greatly diminished with the ocean air. It also means a return to some sunshine after a rather cloudy Monday.
On Wednesday the warm air will attempt to flow back into Maine and humidity levels will increase. There will be widely scattered showers, but much of the day, especially the morning, will be dry.   Temperatures will reach the 60s much of the week with the largest fluctuations in how it feels do to the humidity and not the actual temperature.

The main thrust of warm and humid air should stay south of the area. This will leave us in an unsettled pattern for the balance of the week.
Thursday could be an interesting day for some severe weather over western Maine. You might have noticed all the thunderstorms and tornadoes over the Midwest the past couple of days. Eventually, some of that energy will move eastward and could spark a line of thunderstorms for later Thursday. I am not forecasting anything remotely as severe as what they are seeing in the center of the country.

Next weekend is already Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial, but somewhat official kickoff to summer. Three day weekends are tough to make a forecast this far out, but right now, the start of the weekend looks dry and seasonable to slightly cool.   I don’t see the weekend turning into a hot one with great weather for the beach, but it’s early for that at this point anyway.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Spring's glory busting out all over

Dave Epstein — Thu, 16 May 2013 13:28:36 GMT

lorious weather abounds across southern and central Maine. Did you get a chance to notice just how amazing the start of this day has been? I know rushing around getting ready for work, getting the kids out the door, and all the other hecticness of the morning doesn’t leave much time to appreciate spring. I believe Maine is beautiful all year, but there is something really special about spring.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

For me this absolutely the best time of the year. Afternoon temperatures are warm, mornings are cool, and generally there isn’t the humidity of mid-summer. Plants are growing at an incredible rate. Have you ever considered how much biomass has been created in the past 4 weeks? If you think back to mid-April when the leaves were just starting to emerge and fast forward to this morning the increase in the number of plant cells across the area is mind boggling. The sheer weight of material that exists today that didn’t just a few weeks ago is fascinating.

Since I was 3 or 4 years old, nature has always amazed me. My first recollection of anything to do with nature was catching a moth in a jar and showing to my sports minded neighbor back in 1968. He was about as interested in that moth as I was in the baseball in his hand. Over the year I have become an avid Sox fan, but still would rather be catching butterflies and frogs.

With the weather so perfect, it gives me a chance to plant another crop of lettuce, radishes and get those tomatoes in the ground. In the summer I work with kids at Camp Kingswood in Bridgton teaching them about horticulture. Gardening is a lifelong pursuit. I began planting before the age of 10 and have grown vegetables for nearly 40 years. (that’s kinda depressing seeing that number). Last weekend I was showing a 14 year old I mentor the asparagus in my garden. He remarked “that’s how it grows?” I often forget kids and even adults have no idea how many of the things we eat actually grow. I took the picture below this morning; you can see the asparagus coming up from the ground. I will cut it at ground level this evening for supper.

Nothing is perfect in life, and while the weather is pretty close today high fire danger and high levels of pollen will continue. This evening with temperatures in the upper 60s and abundant sunshine that will stick around until about 8PM there will be plenty of time to enjoy the final few hours of a great day.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler, but still sunny. Afternoon highs should reach about 68°F, with perhaps a sea breeze at the coast. The weekend which is filled with graduations, weddings and a ton of other outdoor activities will all take place with ideal May conditions. Temperatures will remain the 60s and cool slightly at the coast during the afternoon. On Sunday we will see a blend of clouds and Sunshine with similar temperatures. If you are sitting in a black gap and gown it’s still going to feel very warm in the sunshine which is nearing peak strength this time of year.

Warmer and more humid air makes a run southern Maine during the middle of next week and this can bring a few showers. Until then it’s dry and sunny. Don’t you just love May?

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

A few showers, warmer air and a nice weekend

Dave Epstein — Wed, 15 May 2013 11:25:30 GMT

It’s another morning where several towns across interior southern Maine saw temperature readings in the 20s. I believe we have arrived at a point where most of us are now done with frost.

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

As I look at the longer range forecasts it does appear that the past two mornings will end up being the last of the frosty mornings until the fall. Of course I could always be incorrect about this, but both the time of year and the current pattern favor a safe start to the growing season from here on out.

This means that it is safe to put out your tender plants and not worry about a freeze. The exceptions to this are far northern areas of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine as well as some of the deeper valleys and higher elevations where it can be as much as 5 to 10 degrees cooler.

The weather pattern for the next week is looking quite nice and even warm for tomorrow. I expect temperatures in the 70s to be common for Thursday. It appears that the third week of May will generally end up being a great one.

We do have some showers on the way for later this afternoon and overnight as a couple of fronts crisscross the area. The fronts will help to bring moisture to the area and a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is possible over the next 12 to 18 hours. Although we did get some rain a few days ago, we are still quite dry and any rain is welcome.

Thursday will be a great day as sunshine and warm temperatures prevail. This will end up being one of the warmer days of the next 5 or so with highs exceeding 70°F. A cooler air mass will arrive for Friday, when highs will remain in the 60s.

The weekend is looking nice, but not perfect. There will be a front close to the area later Saturday and Sunday. While this front will not provide much, if any rain, clouds may be an issue over part of the weekend, likely Sunday. With the added cloud cover temperatures will be a bit cooler staying in the 60s. The good news is that the weekend will be rain free as there are many graduations this weekend as well as weddings or just simple baseball games.

To our south in places like Texas there is already summer heat building. Temperatures well into the 90s are common and some humidity is starting to make itself felt. This heat is going to try to move northward next week, but the northern extent of its reach is in question. This time of year summer heat and humidity can move into southern New England very quickly and early heat waves are not impossible there. It is much tougher to reach 90°F here in Maine during May. We have hit 90°F 15 times since 1940 in Portland. The last time Portland reached 90°F in May was May 26th 2010 when the mercury reached 91°F

I'll be updating the forecast throughout the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.