A new poll released Thursday in the Maine governor’s race indicates Republican Gov. Paul LePage has a more than a 5-point lead over Democrat Mike Michaud, 39.3 percent to 33.6 percent, just outside the poll’s margin of error. Independent Eliot Cutler was third with 19.5 percent.

Another new poll, an online product from the British company YouGov that was prepared for CBS and The New York Times, had Michaud with a 37 percent to 35 percent lead over LePage, with Cutler trailing at 10 percent, and 13 percent undecided.

Both poll results prompted responses from the three campaigns and two major parties, all generally seeking to boast about favorable numbers while discrediting unfavorable ones.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which has conducted polling for the Portland Press Herald, said he wouldn’t draw too many conclusions from either poll.

“It’s a close race but also very fluid,” he said.

The first poll, conducted by the Portland firm Pan Atlantic SMS, was based on a telephone survey of 400 voters from Sept. 23-29, before the first two debates held Wednesday and Thursday. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The results do not differ dramatically from a poll the firm conducted in April, when LePage had 38.6 percent support, followed by Michaud at 37.3 percent and Cutler at 20.3 percent.

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The YouGov poll, an online survey of 1,531 voters taken from Sept. 20-Oct. 1, had a margin of error of only 2.8 percentage points, but it has been criticized. The American Association for Public Opinion Research and FiveThirtyEight, a well-respected online news source that specializes in politics and data, have both questioned YouGov’s methodology and lack of transparency.

A YouGov poll conducted this summer didn’t even include Cutler as a candidate.

Smith said he liked Pan Atlantic’s methodology better and said YouGov’s poll was more likely to attract what he called “activist voters.”

Most other recent public polls also show a close race between LePage and Michaud.

A poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center for the Press Herald last month indicated Michaud was leading LePage, 40 percent to 38 percent, but within the poll’s margin of error. Cutler trailed at 12 percent.

Pan Atlantic SMS, owned by Patrick Murphy, who works often with Democrats, has an extensive polling history in Maine.

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A poll the firm conducted from Oct. 11-15 of the 2010 gubernatorial election showed LePage with a 33 percent to 28 percent lead over Democrat Libby Mitchell, with Cutler trailing at 14 percent.

Two weeks later, when the dynamics of the race had started to shift, a fresh Pan Atlantic poll showed Cutler jumping to 31 percent, Mitchell dropping to 22 percent and LePage maintaining his lead at 37 percent.

That poll was among the closest to forecasting the actual election results. LePage won with 38.2 percent of the vote to Cutler’s 36.5 percent and Mitchell’s 19.5 percent.

Smith said that from what he has seen in the race so far, “any voter movement is going to happen between Michaud and Cutler.”

Eric Russell can be contacted at 791-6344 or at:

erussell@pressherald.com

Twitter: @PPHEricRussell


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