WASHINGTON — The nation’s respite from accelerating health care costs appears to be over.

Spending on health care will outpace the nation’s overall economic growth over the next decade, the government forecast on Tuesday, underscoring a coming challenge for the next president, not to mention taxpayers and businesses.

A combination of expanded insurance coverage under President Obama’s law, an aging population and rising demand, will be squeezing society’s ability to pay.

By 2019, midway through the next president’s term, health care spending will be increasing at roughly 6 percent a year, compared to an average annual rise of 4 percent from 2008 through 2013.

FUTURE PRESIDENT BE WARNED

“I do think this becomes something of a liability for anybody coming into office, and they need to have a very proactive policy to address it,” said Dan Mendelson, CEO of Avalere Health, a market analysis and consulting firm. Mendelson served in the Clinton White House as a health policy expert.

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Health care as a share of the nation’s overall economy is projected to grow from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024, the report says, accounting for nearly $1 of every $5 spent.

Growth in the nation’s health care tab slowed dramatically during the 2007-2009 economic recession.

Then came several years when health care increases tracked closely with the economy as it started to stir again.

COVERAGE AT A COST

As taxpayers, Americans benefited from the slowdown, which reduced projected Medicare costs. But many people saw their own medical bills rise, as employers shifted costs to workers.

Things changed in 2014, the report says, with coverage expansion under the new health care law. Some 8.4 million gained coverage that year, and people with health insurance use more medical services and prescriptions than do the uninsured.

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At the same time, expensive new drugs that can cure hepatitis C are boosting spending on medications. In 2013, prescription drug spending rose by 2.5 percent. For 2014, the projected increase is 12.6 percent.

Spending on Medicaid, the federal-state health insurance program for low-income people, also has jumped.

The 2013 increase was 6.1 percent. But the program is projected to have grown by 12 percent in 2014, again boosted by coverage expansion under the health care law.

Expanded Medicaid is one of two paths for covering the uninsured under Obama’s law. The other is subsidized private insurance. Spending on private insurance is projected to have grown by 6.1 percent last year, more than double the rate in 2013.

Government will become a more dominant player as the federal, state, and local government share of health care rises to 47 percent in 2024, from 43 percent in 2013.


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