Welcome to November. If you are still shell shocked from last winter and fearful of an early start to the winter season this year, let me put your mind at ease. Overall, this month and likely the first part of December will feature above normal temperatures.

nov throug ht124

If you have been following me on Twitter as well as here, you know the warm November has been in the forecast for several weeks.
Precipitation is a bit harder to forecast, but in the short-term we are still in a very dry pattern. Before I delve into a longer look at the upcoming months, let me quickly tell you this week looks absolutely ideal for early November.

maineweather this week sfd 12


Unless you are a skier who was hoping for an early cold snap, the lack of a November chill this week should please you. This kind of pattern saves on heating costs and makes the 5 p.m. darkness a bit easier to take.

This week the weather turns colder late in the weekend, but this doesn’t look to last very long. If you are wondering, average highs should be in the 52-60 degree range in most years. If we are into the 60s it’s warm for early November and if we stay in the 40s it’s cold.

Canadian Model
As you know there are many computer model forecasts we all use to evaluate the upcoming weather. The Canadian model doesn’t get as much air time as the GFS and Euro, but it’s still a formidable model and worth a look. The latest long-range outlook concurs with the thinking of many other forecasters and models.

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Long-range Far From Exact
All of these long-range forecasts are based on probability and averages. This doesn’t mean an above average temperature month can’t have a week of cold, or that a dry month can’t see a major storm. If it snowed 20 inches in January and that’s all the precipitation we received it would be a month with less moisture than average, but certainly a snowy month. The point is numbers don’t always tell the entire story.

The atmosphere has a typical state at any given time of the year. By evaluating how the atmosphere compares to average we can get an idea of what the weather will be like across the country in a given month.

Canadian Model Review 
December 2015
For December, the predicted average pattern has a trough further south and west than is typically the case. This is forecast to bring the coldest air across the west and leave New England warmer than average.

december tempsfds

January 2016
The map below shows the average upper pattern for January. The flow typically brings cold air from Canada south and east. If the pattern is further west then the coldest air might not make it into New England – it would be shunted south before it gets here.

average 500 mb jan

The temperatures forecast according to the Canadian models leaves New England on the edge of the coldest air. If this forecast holds, January would see some thawing throughout the month.

500 millibar forecast pattern for January 2016

500 millibar forecast pattern for January 2016

January temperature forecast 2016

January temperature forecast 2016

February 2016
February has many forecasters thinking above average cold and snow, but the Canadian model has mixed messages, forecasting a month with a lack of deep cold, but likely stormy with average snow. After last February, if we did receive only a foot of snow in February, it would be quite welcome by many of you.

500 millibar temperatures forecast for February 2016

500 millibar temperatures forecast for February 2016

February 2016 temperature forecast based on Canadian model

February 2016 temperature forecast based on Canadian model

Of course February is three months away and this forecast will be updated several times by then. It is going to be interesting to see how the trends unfold. El Nino, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific North American Pattern, the Maiden –Julian Oscillation all will be interacting to create our upcoming winter pattern. An unforeseen shift in one or more of these can throw off everyone’s long-range forecast.


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