Snowfall is highly variable from year to year across Maine and for that matter all of New England. There is about a 100- to 150-inch range between the highest and lowest snow totals in the record books for much of New England. That stat is true for much of the area including Portland, Bangor and Caribou. Ponder that for a moment, the difference between a year with little snow and one with a lot of snow can be 8 to 12 feet.

seasonal snow portland

Massive Swings In Accumulation Are The Norm

Bangor has seen less than 2 feet of snow during some winters or as much as 15 feet back in the early 1960s. Portland’s snowiest winter, in the early 1970s, brought over 141 inches of snow while the final winter of the 1970s saw just over 2 feet in the entire season.

Global Fluctuations
So what causes such a wide range and what does this season look like in terms of snowfall? The reason behind the range is of course the highly variable track of storms and the amount of cold air present during them each winter. Snowfall tends to cluster in extremes. There are snowy months and not so snowy ones. There have been many Decembers with less than an inch of snow in Portland and surrounding areas and still many others with more than 3 feet. Each year brings about wild swings in snowfall and makes predicting what will happen quite difficult.

How Much Snow This Season?
average now portland maineLast winter snowfall was very low from November to the middle of January. The snowiest period during that time was actually around Thanksgiving. It wasn’t until during the third week of January that snow came, and then it didn’t stop for 6 weeks. However, the snow and precipitation in general also shut down rather rapidly with drought conditions showing up by May.

This December will also likely have less snow than average, but this doesn’t mean a repeat of last year. Typically, there is 8 to 18 inches of snow in December across the region. You can see how snowfall typically stacks up in an average season around greater Portland.

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The big factor at play this winter is El Nino and this tends to mean less snow and fewer arctic outbreaks to the area. El Nino’s also tend to peak in December and then lose their influence as winter progresses. Many El Nino years have the bulk of their snowfall later in January and February, similar to last season, but in significantly less overall.

El Nino and other factors such as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are raising the odds of a year with less snow than average. The maps below show how much snow typically falls across the region and what I am expecting this year.

snow in maine ave vs 2015

The idea is snowfall should be near or under average and not above. This is my best estimate on snowfall putting all the factors together. These types of forecasts don’t have a high degree of accuracy because I am attempting to forecast for a very small area. My expertise lies in short and medium range forecasting, but I still like dabbling in the longer range stuff as well.

Last winter for example while eastern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine had enormous amounts of snow, inland and northern areas had average and even below average snowfall.

Two storms tracking 50 or 100 miles in one direction or another can raise or lower winter snowfall by a foot or more and an El Nino lasting a bit longer or not as long as forecast can also change my thinking and the ultimate outcome. Of course as the atmosphere continues to evolve this winter, I’ll update these changes.


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