Where is winter? That is likely the question some of you are asking today as a warmer than average pattern continues across much of the eastern part of the United States. While the weather is unusual, there are very few years when the weather isn’t newsworthy. There are snowy winters, mild ones, hot summers, wet summers, rainy springs and dry ones. The variability of the weather is what is normal here in New England.

This fall the weather was milder than average and it’s continuing into the start of meteorological winter which runs December 1st to February 29th. Every single state across the lower 48 was much milder than average last month.

This weekend, a surge of very mild air will threaten to bring new records to parts of the Ohio Valley and into southern New England. The map below shows some of the records which could fall on Sunday, likely the mildest day. Notice however there is cold air in Maine. This is why Saturday is our warmest day of the weekend.

Much of the pattern we are observing is likely being driven by the strong El Nino, but that isn’t the only player involved. The upper level wind pattern across the arctic isn’t conducive to letting the cold air come south (Arctic Oscillation) and the pressure patterns in the Atlantic aren’t in a position to favor storm development (North Atlantic Oscillation).

There are few things to keep in mind about being so mild and snowless this time of year. First, as we saw last winter, a milder than average and below average month during December doesn’t mean we won’t see a lot of snow later in the winter. Many forecasters, including me, have been saying if we are going to see much cold and snow it would likely come later in the season, not earlier.

The other side of the equation is just because we had so much snow after a quiet first 6 weeks of winter last doesn’t mean we will see anything remotely like that this winter. Since I just presented both sides of the argument, which is the likelier scenario?

No past winter is exactly like the upcoming one so it’s pointless to say this year is like any other. However, if we study some of the past years, when things like El Nino and other cyclic factors have been similar, one of the winters that stand out is 1982-1983. Notice how mild December 1982 was in many areas.

That year brought a warm December to the northeast with below average snowfall. This pattern continued through the first half of January, there were a few weeks of snow lasting into the middle of February and that was basically the end of winter. Follow the green line on the chart below. You can see how the snowfall accumulated that year. The blue line is last season’s craziness and the brown curve is average.

The pattern tries to become more active in the second half of the month closing out 2015 and ushering in the new next year. However, I still believe there are more factors pushing us towards a winter that ends up milder than average with snowfall near or below average. I’ll have more on the possibility of any snow before the end of the year in an upcoming blog early next week.