WASHINGTON — Democratic activists pushing for the confirmation of President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee measure their efforts by the numbers: more than 400 newspaper editorials, several dozen live protests and 1.5 million petition signatures urging Republican senators to take up Merrick Garland’s nomination.

But this, too, can be measured: As of Monday, 52 senators oppose a hearing for Garland, let alone an up-or-down vote, before voters choose Obama’s successor in November.

The all-out Democratic advocacy blitz during the two-week recess ending Monday has produced no discernible impact in the arena that really matters: the Senate Republican caucus.

Only two of 54 Republican senators say they favor hearings. And two other senators who previously supported hearings reversed their positions under pressure from conservative activists, indicating that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has so far been extremely successful in holding together the Republican blockade.

In declaring progress, Democrats are seizing on polling data, media coverage and the willingness of at least 16 Republican senators to meet informally with Garland in their offices.

“It couldn’t be clearer,” Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a Friday call with reporters. “The public is overwhelmingly on our side. Every day, voters grow more frustrated with Republican obstruction and more terrified by the prospect of Donald Trump picking the next Supreme Court justice.”

Now, with senators back in Washington, the pressure campaign is moving to a new phase, with Democrats hoping to parlay Garland’s meetings into Republican action. This week, Republican Sens. John Boozman of Arkansas and Susan Collins of Maine are to sit down individually with Garland, as are nine Democratic senators.

Democrats are hoping for a reprise of his first meeting with a Republican senator – last week with Mark Kirk of Illinois, who, while seated next to Garland, declared his colleagues “closed-minded” for snubbing him.

But conservatives are warning not to expect much from the courtesy meetings, saying that they are just that.

“They’re confusing courtesy with weakness on the part of Republicans, and that’s not fair at all,” said Carrie Severino, chief counsel for the Judicial Crisis Network, which is coordinating outside support for the blockade.

“There was never a hard-line Republican position on do we meet with Garland or don’t we,” Severino said. “The discussion is do we have hearings and do we have a vote? … And that has held. There is an incredible amount of unity.”

Republican leaders have not explicitly issued instructions on how to stage-manage the sit-downs, but one Republican aide said the playbook is clear: “Have your boss go out, shake hands, bring him in the conference room, and after it’s over, say what he’s been saying over and over again.”

With the exception of Kirk and Collins – moderates who frequently break with the party line – the Republicans who have agreed to meet with Garland have said they intend to use the meetings to explain their reasoning for not moving forward with confirmation.

Several polls have shown that roughly two-thirds of voters nationally want to see congressional action on a Garland nomination.

And Democrats say they are confident that Republicans will eventually relent when they confront public opinion in favor of Garland’s confirmation and realize the blockade threatens their tenuous Senate majority.

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