INDIANAPOLIS — Mike Tomlin guessed wrong.

The Pittsburgh Steelers coach expected Andrew Luck to overcome a head injury and suit up for Thursday night’s primetime game.

Pittsburgh was preparing to face the Colts' Andrew Luck, right, in Thursday night's game in Indianapolis, but the star quarterback was ruled out Wednesday because of a head injury. Associated Press/Darron Cummings

Thursday's NFL games

VIKINGS (6-4) at LIONS (6-4), 12:30 p.m.

Outlook: Traditional host Detroit marks its 77th holiday game, but it is Minnesota’s first since 2000, and the first time these NFC North rivals have met on Thanksgiving since 1995. I get why Detroit is a narrow favorite in this duel for the division lead. It isn’t just the venue. The Lions have won three straight Thanksgiving games by a combined 119-41. The day seems to bring out the best in Matthew Stafford, who’s having a career year. The 6-4 Lions are the first team ever to have its first 10 games all decided by seven points or fewer, and they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter of all six wins. The luck expires here. The Vikings’ superior defense will carry the day. Upset!

Television: CBS

Prediction: Vikings, 23-20.

WASHINGTON (6-3-1) at COWBOYS (9-1), 4:30 p.m.

Outlook: This could be the game of the week as a Cowboys squad with the best record in the NFL faces an NFC East rival off to its best start since 1996. Hot meets hot as Dallas hosts a Turkey Day game for the 49th time. The Cowboys have tied a record with eight straight games topping 400 yards, while Washington has twice exceeded 500. The Cowboys are more relentless, though, led by super rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The venue and Dallas’ clearly superior defense tip this one.

Television: FOX

Prediction: Cowboys, 30-24

STEELERS (5-5) at COLTS (5-5), 8:30 p.m.

Outlook: Indianapolis’ first Thanksgiving appearance since 2007 and Pittburgh’s first since 1991 might have been more entertaining than you’d expect of two .500 teams, but erasing Andrew Luck (concussion) is a blow to the Colts’ chances. The dropoff to backup Scott Tolzien is enormous. Tolzien last started a game in 2013 and has thrown one pass (!) since. I simply cannot fathom Tolzien outscoring Ben Roethlisberger, who has averaged a 129.1 passer rating in his past three games against the Colts. The Steelers also bring a better all-around defense into the matchup. Indy will honor Hall of Famers Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison at halftime. If only Colts could swap that emotion for points.

Television: NBC

Prediction: Steelers, 28-16

By Greg Cote, Miami Herald

Instead, the Indianapolis Colts ruled out their star quarterback Wednesday after he missed practice for the third straight day.

The likely replacement will be the rarely used Scott Tolzien, whom Tomlin doesn’t have much tape on because Tolzien hasn’t played since the preseason.

But Tomlin didn’t win two Super Bowls without successfully devising contingency plans – and he’ll have to rely on that experience to win at Indy.

“I just think it’s prudent for us to prepare for Andrew and then react to whatever may transpire that’s different than that, as opposed to the other way around,” Tomlin told Indianapolis reporters during a conference call before Wednesday’s injury report was released.

Indy (5-5), of course, did a good job keeping Luck’s status shrouded because that’s how NFL teams operate.

And Pagano didn’t drop any hints about his backup plan, either, when he told reporters Tuesday simply that the Colts had “options.”

The most likely scenario, of course, is that Pagano sticks with Tolzien.

Otherwise, Pagano could go with Stephen Morris, a practice squad player who was promoted to the active roster Wednesday, some combination of both or use running back Frank Gore in the wildcat formation as the Colts have done sporadically the past two games.

JETS: Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick practiced fully for the first time since spraining his left knee, while center Nick Mangold sat out again with a sprained right ankle and appears unlikely to play against New England on Sunday.

Fitzpatrick was hurt at Miami on Nov. 6 and Bryce Petty started in his place against Los Angeles on Nov. 13. Coach Todd Bowles announced Monday that Fitzpatrick was healthy and would start against the Patriots.

Mangold has been sidelined for three games, but Bowles said Wednesday that the center is out of his walking boot. Bowles said placing Mangold on season-ending injured reserve isn’t yet being discussed, but also didn’t rule it out.

BROWNS: Quarterback Robert Griffin moved closer to playing again this season as Cleveland designated him for return from injured reserve, giving the team 21 days to activate him to the roster.

Griffin has been sidelined since breaking a bone in his left shoulder in the season opener, his debut with Cleveland.

Griffin still needs to be cleared for full contact, and it’s possible he could play as early as Dec. 11, when the Browns host Cincinnati.

Josh McCown will start this week against the Giants.

BILLS: Receiver Sammy Watkins made his long-awaited return to practice, but his status for Sunday’s game against Jacksonville remains up in the air.

The team’s top wideout returned after missing two months because of a left foot injury. He was limited during the portion of practice open to reporters, but showed no signs of pain or struggling on the field.

After suffering a setback two weeks into the season – which resulted in Watkins’ being placed on injured reserve – the Bills and Watkins are playing it safe when it comes to his full return.

Watkins missed most of the offseason after having surgery in April, when he had two screws inserted into his left foot to repair a stress fracture. He aggravated the injury in Week 3 when a teammate stepped on his foot at a walk-through.

PACKERS: Running back Eddie Lacy and cornerback Sam Shields will stay on injured reserve for the rest of the season, with Green Bay planning to activate cornerback Makinton Dorleant from injured reserve.

Coach Mike McCarthy said that Dorleant, a rookie free agent, would be activated for the game Monday night at Philadelphia.

Shields got hurt in the season opener, while Lacy has been out since Week 5 with an ankle injury.

DOLPHINS: Defensive end Dion Jordan practiced for the first time in nearly two years following a long suspension and knee surgery, but it’s uncertain whether he’ll play Sunday against the 49ers.

Jordan, the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2013, has been rehabilitating from surgery since being reinstated by the NFL following a 15-month suspension for his latest violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.

FALCONS: After missing three straight games with a hamstring injury, backup running back Tevin Coleman says he is “100 percent” healthy.

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