PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Vikings (6-4-1) at Patriots (8-3), 4:25 p.m.

Spread: Patriots by 51/2

Outlook: Tom Brady is always the safe pick at home, where the Pats have won 12 in a row. But Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will challenge New England’s air defense. An outright upset is in play. Lean toward the Vikings with points.

Prediction: Patriots, 27-23

GAME OF THE WEEK

Chargers (8-3) at Steelers (7-3-1), 8:20 p.m.

Spread: Steelers by 31/2

Outlook: These are two of the four teams chasing the Chiefs for the overall No. 1 AFC playoff seed, and also a tasty duel between a couple of 2004 draftmates who’ve done pretty well: Ben Roethlsiberger and Philip Rivers. Pittsburgh is averaging 35.4 points at home and is on a 14-1 run in night games.

Prediction: Steelers, 34-24.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Colts (6-5) at Jaguars (3-8), 1 p.m.

Spread: Colts by 4.

Outlook: The streaking Colts have won five straight and the Jaguars have lost seven straight. Andrew Luck’s offense is flying high, while Jacksonville just fired its offensive coordinator, benched Blake Bortles and will be missing running back Leonard Fournette to suspension. But Luck is missing tight end Jack Doyle and maybe running back Marlon Mack.

Prediction: Jaguars 24-20.

OTHER GAMES

• At Dolphins (5-6, -4) over Bills (4-7), 27-16: I like Miami to cover but am mindful of this trend: Buffalo has been outscored 141-9 in the first half of its past six losses.

• Ravens (6-5, +2) over At Falcons (4-7), 27-23: Baltimore is playoff-fighting in a way Atlanta is not. Lamar Jackson could start at QB again for Joe Flacco, but that might be a net gain.

• Broncos (5-6, -41/2) over At Bengals (5-6), 23-16: Andy Dalton is out, and Denver’s pass rush versus Jeff Driskel in his first NFL start is not a matchup favorable to the home team. Like month-old bananas, Cincy’s defense has gone bad.

• Rams (10-1, -10) over At Lions (4-7), 41-17: Rams, off a bye, clinch the division with a win or Seattle loss. The Lions and Matthew Stafford miss the departed Golden Tate, and now running back Kerryon Johnson could be out.

• At Packers (4-6-1, -14) over Cardinals (2-9), 28-17: Aaron Rodgers is 16-1 in career home starts in December, but the Packers have lost 4 of 5 because a not-100-percent Rodgers operates behind a banged-up line.

• Bears (8-3, -41/2) over At Giants (3-8), 24-20: Give New York a legit shot, especially with Mitchell Trubisky likely out again. It’s enough to like the Giants with points, but not outright, not with the Bears’ ferocious defense bedeviling Eli Manning.

• Panthers (6-5, -31/2) over At Buccaneers (4-7), 34-31: Anybody got a coin? The Panthers are only 1-4 on the road, and Jameis Winston was good last week. Still, Carolina has won three straight and eight of its past 10 over the Bucs, although I will hedge with Tampa Bay plus points.

• At Texans (8-3, -6) over Browns (4-6-1), 30-20: Tasty QB duel reprises the 2016 college playoff semifinal won by Deshaun Watson’s Clemson over Baker Mayfield’s Oklahoma. But watch the Texans’ pass rush tip this one.

• At Titans (5-6, -7 1/2) over Jets (3-8), 19-13: The Jets are 1-4 on the road. The Titans have won 13 of 16 at home. New York has been awful for five games but the hunch is it stays inside the bet line in a low-scoring game.

• Chiefs (9-2, -151/2) over At Raiders (2-9), 48-16: K.C. is on a massive 19-1 run versus division opponents. Running back Kareem Hunt could score 40 fantasy points as his is team guns for the overall No. 1 seed.

• At Seahawks (6-5, -10) over 49ers (2-9), 31-0: Richard Sherman makes his return to Seattle as a 49er. He won’t leave happy. The Seahawks have won nine straight in this series, and the 49ers are 0-6 on the road.

• At Eagles (5-6, -6) over Washington (6-5), 24-20: It’s a huge game in a sadly wide-open NFC East. I like the over (43 points) in a game with two bad pass defenses, and on MNF, where scores tend to run high. Washington takes a hit with Colt McCoy for Alex Smith but still should keep it close.

Last week: 11-4 overall, 10-5 vs. spread

Season: 120-54-2, 99-71-6

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald

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