Ever since Rex Ryan’s Jets went into Foxborough and stunned the Patriots in the 2010 playoffs, divisional-round visitors have been overwhelmingly noncompetitive at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have won their last seven divisional-round games by an average score of 37-20. All but two of those opponents – the 2014 Ravens and 2015 Chiefs – were rocked by double digits.
This time, there’s bound to be some suspense.
The Los Angeles Chargers punched their ticket for Foxborough by holding off the Ravens, 23-17, on Sunday. Kickoff next Sunday is 1:05 p.m.
By any measure, the Chargers are the most accomplished divisional-round opponent for the Patriots in the last decade.
“We know the run they’ve had,” quarterback Philip Rivers said on the CBS broadcast. “It seems like forever, they’re always in these games, and games beyond. … We’re going to fly back home, and then we’re going to fly back out here for another 10 a.m. West Coast kick. We really don’t care.”
The Chargers enter with 13 wins, including an 8-1 record on the road. They rallied from a two-touchdown deficit in the second half for a 29-28 win at the Chiefs in Week 15, grabbing their first lead of the game on a 2-point conversion with four seconds remaining. They also erased a 16-point halftime deficit at Pittsburgh for a wild 33-30 victory in Week 13. Their only road loss was a Week 3 matchup at the cross-city rival Rams.
After finishing tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC West, the Chargers lost the second tiebreaker and missed out on a first-round bye. But they’re not a typical wild-card team.
Their strengths? A little bit of everything.
Rivers enjoyed one of his best seasons at age 37. His 105.5 passer rating was tied for the best of his career, excluding his rookie season when he played only two games. Rivers leans on one of the league’s best possession receivers, Keenan Allen, and two tall, athletic big-play threats in Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams.
The Patriots have an All-Pro cornerback in Stephon Gilmore, but how will they deploy him? Allen often works from the slot. Gilmore occasionally follows No. 1 receivers inside, but his top assets are his length and physicality versus perimeter receivers. The Patriots could choose to stick Gilmore on the 6-foot-3 Mike Williams, who makes acrobatic downfield catches on a weekly basis.
The Chargers’ running game is among the most efficient in the league, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Melvin Gordon averaged 114.6 yards from scrimmage in 12 games but hasn’t been at full strength in recent weeks. He entered the wild-card game nursing a right knee injury, then suffered a left knee injury in the first quarter against the Ravens. He returned and finished with 40 yards and a score.
Defensively, Los Angeles is a well-rounded group with star players at each level. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are a dominant duo on the edge. They move around the defensive front, which means Trent Brown and Marcus Cannon could be matched against both players at various times.
Casey Hayward is a two-time Pro Bowler at cornerback. Rookie safety Derwin James has emerged as a big-time playmaker, as well.
The Chargers have had little to no success against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, however. Rivers is 1-7 against the Patriots, and his lone win came in 2008, when Brady was out for the season with a torn ACL.
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