WHAT: AFC championship game

WHERE: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

KICKOFF: 6:40 p.m. Sunday

SPREAD: Chiefs by 3

ALL-TIME SERIES: Chiefs lead, 18-15-3

LAST MEETING: Oct. 14, 2018, won by Patriots, 43-40

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PATRIOTS’ TOP PLAYERS: QB Tom Brady (34 of 44, 343 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions in last week’s divisional-round win over Chargers); RB James White (NFL-playoff record 15 catches for 97 yards last week); RB Sony Michel (24 rushes, 129 yards, 3 TDs last week); WR Julian Edelman (9 catches, 151 yards last week); TE Rob Gronkowski (47 catches, 682 yards, 3 TDs during regular season); DE Trey Flowers (57 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles); S Duron Harmon (37 tackles, team-high 4 interceptions).

CHIEFS’ TOP PLAYERS: QB Pat Mahomes (383 of 580, 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 272 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs in regular season); TE Travis Kelce (103 catches, 1,336 yards, 10 TDs); WR/PR Tyreek Hill (87 catches, 1,479 yards, 12 TDs, 151 rushing yards, 1 touchdown); WR Sammy Watkins (40 catches, 519 yards, 3 TDs); RB Damien Williams (25 rushes, 129 yards); DT Chris Jones (40 tackles, 15.5 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss); LB Justin Houston (37 tackles, 9 sacks).

KEY STAT: 52 – number of regular-season sacks for the Chiefs, tied for first in the NFL.

OUTLOOK: The Chiefs ranked first in the league in points (35.3 per game) and yards (425.6 per game), but their defense ranked 31st among 32 teams in yards per game (405.5) and 24th in points allowed (26.3). And the Patriots can play a little bit of offense. This will likely be much like the regular-season game, where the team with the ball last wins; New England’s Stephen Gostkowski kicked a 28-yard field goal on the final play after Kansas City wiped out a 15-point halftime deficit. Kansas City, of course, is without RB Kareem Hunt, released by the Chiefs after a video surfaced showing him shoving and kicking a woman. But that doesn’t limit their offense. Mahomes makes things happen and has two of the NFL’s great playmakers in Kelce and Hill. The Patriots need to control at least one of those two. Don’t be surprised if rookie CB J.C. Jackson is somehow involved in coverage on either player. Offensively the Patriots need to control the line, as they did last week. Kansas City is a fierce pass-rushing team. If it gets to Brady early, the results could be decided quickly. Look for a lot of quick passes from Brady, and for the Patriots to try to get Michel into the game early, much as they did last week. Again, the Patriots need to play with the lead. They can’t let the Arrowhead Stadium crowd stay in the game.

OF NOTE: The Patriots won the only previous playoff game between the teams, 27-20 in the divisional round of the 2015 season. … The Patriots are playing in their NFL-record eighth consecutive conference championship game. Kansas City is appearing in its first conference final since the 1993 season, when it lost 30-13 to Buffalo. This is the first time Kansas City will host a championship game. … If the Patriots win, they will join Miami (three) and Buffalo (four) as the only teams in NFL history to appear in three consecutive Super Bowls.

— Mike Lowe


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