The Boston Red Sox are 49-41 at the All-Star break, 12 games behind their front-running pace of last year.
But the team’s media department chimed in with optimism, with its daily notes:
Fact: Of the past 19 World Series winners, five were 49-41 or worse through their first 90 games.
Translation: There is hope.
Fact: After starting the season, 11-17, the Red Sox are 38-24 (and 15-7 in their last 22 games).
Translation: This is a team on the move.
But Red Sox fans can also put together their own, glass-half-empty set of numbers.
Facts: The Red Sox are tied for first in the American League in blown saves (18), and are the worst in save percentage (50 percent; 18 saves out of 36 chances). Also, the relievers rank eighth in ERA (4.44) and the starters ninth (4.70).
Translation: Boston needs more arms.
As Boston emerges from the All-Star break – playing the Dodgers Friday in suddenly-unfriendly Fenway – the Red Sox are a good team. Can they be great?
Here are some signs to watch.
RELIEF FOR THE RELIEVERS: It is not a secret that the bullpen is worn down. Brandon Workman (43 games), Ryan Brasier (41), Matt Barnes (40) and Marcus Walden (36) all show positive glimpses and then … not so good.
Workman has a 1.79 ERA, but also four blown saves. Brasier (3.58/three blown saves), Barnes (4.62/six) and Walden (3.75/three) also struggle. Barnes can look lights-out (67 strikeouts) but he tires. His ERA when pitching with no days’ rest is 9.00. Walden began strong, but has a 7.20 ERA over June and July.
The pen could use dependable depth to lighten the load. Heath Hembree coming off the injured list should help, but the Red Sox are counting on another rebound from Nathan Eovaldi. The starter who has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, is coming back from a less-invasive elbow surgery in April. Instead of taking more time to stretch him out as a starter, Boston plans to use Eovaldi in relief. He has been throwing off the mound, but has yet to make any rehab appearances.
Steven Wright is back from his suspension. He can be streaky with his knuckleball, but maybe he provides some respite for the pen.
Internally, Boston has possible – read, uncertain – remedies. Mike Shawaryn gave up one earned run in his first six appearances, but 11 in his next two (including eight in a London outing). He needs another chance. Travis Lakins (5.79) has yet to get on a roll.
Darwinzon Hernandez has been moved to the Pawtucket, hoping to balance his impressive stuff with some control. In Portland, Tanner Houck has also been moved to the pen. If he or Durbin Feltman get going, Boston may beckon.
As for the trade market, dependable (and available) relievers will not come cheap. Shane Greene (Tigers) and Will Smith (Giants) are among the names that would intrigue Boston. But how much is able/willing to offer in return.
BOSTON’S ABILITY to trade has been lessened by Dave Dombrowski’s previous trades. Boston’s best prospects are corner infielder/power hitters Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas, and starting pitcher Bryan Mata. Dalbec leads the Double-A Eastern League in home runs (19), and Casas (15) is second in the low Class A South Atlantic League, even though this is Casas’ first pro season. Mata, 20, just reached Portland and is Boston’s next best chance for a homegrown starter out of the farm system.
The Red Sox would have to score a huge return to give up any of those three.
A potential trading chip is Sea Dogs shortstop C.J. Chatham, who is batting .318. With Xander Bogaerts in Boston, the Red Sox could make Chatham available (although they recently are trying him out at second base).
Dalbec and Chatham will be eligible for the Major League Rule V draft this December, if Boston does not put them on the 40-man roster.
One more reminder about trades: MLB did away with waiver-wire trades in August. July 31 is the hard deadline for any deals.
STARTING PITCHING was supposed to be a strength. David Price is the only dependable starter. If Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello got in gear, Boston could think about closing that nine-game gap between the first-place Yankees, instead of thinking only of the wild card.
A fifth starter will also help, and that appears to be Dombrowski’s focus for a trade. Wouldn’t it be nice to land a lefty like Madison Bumgarner (a free agent next year) or Detroit’s Matthew Boyd (3.87 ERA; arbitration eligible next year with the rebuilding Tigers)?
Another seller will be the Mets and some media reports have Boston looking into right-hander Zack Wheeler, who should not cost much considering his free-agent status next year, and his 4.69 ERA.
HOME FIELD “advantage” would be nice, if the Red Sox used it. They are 20-20 at Fenway. On Friday, the Dodgers come to town. Last year, when L.A. visited Fenway, the Red Sox showcased a team worthy of a championship.
As for 2019 …
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