GAME OF THE WEEK
Steelers at Patriots, 8:20 p.m.
Sunday (NBC)
Spread: Patriots by 6
Outlook: There is an argument for Pittsburgh here (and thus for a great game). The Steelers beat the Patriots at home 17-10 last December and have done a fabulous job hardly missing Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Tom Brady moves on without Rob Gronkowski but will miss injured center David Andrews even more. There is a big chance the Steelers’ rush will really bother Brady. On the other hand: It’s Bill Belichick and Brady, at home, In prime time. There is magic at Foxborough, with nine wins in the past 10 home openers and a 16-0 run (13-3 against the spread) as home favorites. Until you hear otherwise, continue to trust Brady and the Patriots at home more than you trust your best friend.
Prediction: Patriots, 34-27
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Ravens at Dolphins, 1 p.m. Sunday
Spread: Ravens by 6 1/2
Prediction: Dolphins, 23-20
Outlook: OK, here’s the thing. Repeat after me: “The Miami Dolphins will not be as bad as you think.” The Dolphins were 6-2 at home last season, and have the anger and intangible edge. More tangibly, Baltimore had key free-agency losses on defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kenyan Drake – even behind a mishmash line – could have chances. Also, Miami’s defensive line depth and secondary will come through against the big challenge of dual-threat Lamar Jackson. Yes, this pick is a big swing that could miss badly, but like the Black Eyed Peas in 2009, I gotta feeling.
OTHER GAMES
• At Browns (-5 1/2) over Titans, 23-13: Cleveland has a 14-game winless streak (0-13-1) in season openers, but these are the New Browns. Right? Browns fans haven’t been this happy since Jim Brown’s 1964. Watch their pass rush overwhelm a Titans line missing the suspended Taylor Lewan, and remind us all that Marcus Mariota still isn’t very good.
• At Vikings (-3 1/2) over Falcons, 27-20: Julio Jones (foot) seems good to go for the Falcons, but I still like Minnesota taking care of business at home. The Vikings have won 11 of the last 14 at home vs. Atlanta, and a healthy Dalvin Cook with a beefed-up blocking front will make life easier for Kirk Cousins. The Vikings also bring a top-five defense.
• At Jets (-3) over Bills, 19-17: The favorite in this series has lost seven of the last eight. I like the Jets at home, but I’m hedging with Buffalo and the points in what should be a defensive grudge. Josh Allen has few threats, but the Bills play stout defense. Sam Darnold finished last season strong, and Le’Veon Bell will help.
• At Eagles (-10) over Washington, 34-10: Carson Wentz, healthy and with Nick Foles no longer breathing down his neck, has no excuses now, while in Washington it’s a matter of time until Dwayne Haskins gets the call. Washington is way down, and its impasse with left tackle Trent Williams doesn’t help.
• At Panthers (+2 1/2) over Rams, 27-24: The pick presumes Cam Newton starts and is unbothered by his recent foot injury. The Rams face the Super Bowl loser Hangover Effect, especially after a preseason in which key players didn’t play a single snap. Hmm. Venue call.
• Chiefs (-3 1/2) over At Jaguars, 24-20: Tough road test to open for a team many have as the Super Bowl favorite. Jalen Ramsey on Tyreek Hill might be the best Week 1 matchup.
• At Chargers (-6 1/2) over Colts, 23-17: Do not write off the Colts. Yes, Andrew Luck’s retirement rocked the franchise and the falloff to Jacoby Brissett is large. But Indianapolis has enough to be playoff-hunting. Philip Rivers, making his 209th consecutive start, will feel the continuing holdout of running back Melvin Gordon.
• At Seahawks (-10) over Bengals, 38-9: Seattle has won a league-best 10 consecutive home openers, and sad Cincinnati is one of the teams competing with Miami for the No. 1 overall draft pick; plus A.J. Green is out. Ryan Finley should supplant Bengals QB Andy Dalton by season’s end.
• At Cowboys (-7 1/2) over Giants, 24-17: Ezekiel Elliott got his $90 million extension and should start Sunday, although I would be surprised if his workload is heavy. No matter. The Giants are biding time until Daniel Jones bumps Eli Manning. Dallas has won four straight in the rivalry.
• At Cardinals (+2 1/2) over Lions, 31-27: This is a venue call reflecting distrust in the Lions as much as anything. Arizona is consigned by most to NFL dregs territory, but I see potential for an interesting offense under new coach Kliff Kingsbury, rookie Kyler Murray and a healthy David Johnson. By the way, Murray makes this the 12th straight year at least one rookie QB has started in Week 1.
• At Buccaneers (-1) over 49ers, 23-20: Venue call on a near-pick ’em game. I see Bruce Arians as a positive coach hire for Tampa Bay and something of a quarterback whisperer to move forward the lurching career of Jameis Winston. On the other side, San Francisco was 0-8 on the road last season. I’m not sold on Jimmy Garoppolo.
• At Saints (-6 1/2) over Texans, 34-23: Drew Brees, a stout offensive line and mucho threats makes New Orleans nearly guaranteed to score 30 points, especially at home. Deshaun Watson has less to work with after DeAndre Hopkins. The injury loss of running back Lamar Miller really hurts, and the Texans’ offensive line, even with Laremy Tunsil, still figures to struggle against the Saints’ rush.
• Broncos (-2 1/2) over At Raiders, 24-16: Give me Denver’s defense in a pick-’em game, especially with Antonio Brown getting released by Oakland on Saturday. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will be all over (and through) Oakland’s subpar front wall, and Joe Flacco has a chance to put on an I-ain’t-done-yet show vs. Jon Gruden’s secondary. The Broncos win an eighth straight opener.
Last year: 179-75-2 overall; 145-104-7 vs. spread
Comments are not available on this story.
Send questions/comments to the editors.
