Patriots (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Spread: Patriots by 18 1/2
Outlook: Miami is one of eight home underdogs in Week 2, and oh what a dog! The combo of last week’s humiliating 59-10 loss to Baltimore and New England being New England has left the Dolphins getting 18 1/2 points. That’s the biggest NFL spread since 2007, and one of only three times in the last 30 years a road team has been favored by this much. But Miami is on a 5-1 run at home vs. Tom Brady, and I’m hunching that whatever pride wasn’t beaten out of the Dolphins last week will be marshaled for a credible performance that beats the point spread.
Prediction: Patriots, 34-17
GAME OF THE WEEK
Saints (1-0) at Rams (1-0), 4:30 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Spread: Rams by 2 1/2
Outlook: The Saints beat the Rams last year, 45-35, but then Los Angeles won in OT in an NFC title game decided by controversial officiating. Drew Brees’ Saints would have the edge if you believe in revenge-type stuff. Me? I believe Jared Goff and the Rams are a slightly better team, and also one that has won eight of its last nine home games.
Prediction: Rams, 34-30
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Chargers (1-0) at Lions (0-0-1)
Spread: Chargers by 2 1/2
Outlook: The good news? This cannot possibly be a worse pick than last week when I picked Miami! The Chargers and their shoddy run defense were not that impressive in needing OT to survive Indianapolis last week. So we’re rolling with the Lions in a venue pick.
Prediction: Lions, 30-27
OTHER GAMES
• At Ravens (1-0, -13) over Cardinals (0-0-1), 31-13: Nothing will ever be as easy for Baltimore as last week’s walkover in Miami, but this comes close. Who drew up the Ravens’ schedule?
• Cowboys (1-0, -5 1/2) over At Washington (0-1), 27-16: The Cowboys have won five of the last six in the series, and the disparity now is greater than usual. Dak Prescott, trying to earn a new contract, looked fabulous last week and now faces a pass defense that Carson Wentz just torched.
• At Titans (1-0, -3) over Colts (0-1), 19-17: The Titans crushed the Browns last week but won’t get the same help (18 Cleveland penalties) this time. Indy has won 13 of the last 15 in the series and Jacoby Brissett looked great last week, so I’ll hedge and take the underdogs to cover, but not win.
• At Steelers (0-1, -4) over Seahawks (1-0), 23-20: Pittsburgh got hammered 33-3 by the Patriots. Good teams bounce back. So now let’s see if Pittsburgh is a good team. The Steelers are on a 13-3 home run vs. West Coast teams, but Russell Wilson has two-plus TD passes in 12 of his last 13 road games. Expect this to be closer than the line.
• At Giants (0-1, +1 1/2) over Bills (1-0), 27-24: The Giants have won only four of their last 16 at home, but Eli Manning (who keeps fending off the gravediggers) and beast Saquon Barkley should be enough to outscore a tepid Buffalo offense.
• At Bengals (0-1, -2) over 49ers (1-0), 24-17: The Bengals may have been the most impressive of Week 1 losers, so let’s ride ’em at home.
• At Packers (1-0, -3) over Vikings (1-0), 20-17: I changed from picking an upset by the Vikings to trusting Aaron Rodgers at home, with extra rest/prep after playing last Thursday. Rodgers has a 110 rating and 41 TDs vs. six picks in 21 starts vs. Minnesota.
• At Texans (0-1, -9 1/2) over Jaguars (0-1), 24-13: Jaguars rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked fine last week but won’t vs. Houston pass rush. Jacksonville’s defense could be rough on Deshaun Watson, too, but Watson can handle it better than Minshew.
• Chiefs (1-0, -7 1/2) over At Raiders (1-0), 31-24: The Chiefs have scored 25-plus points in 22 straight games, the longest such streak in NFL history. I still like Oakland with the points.
• Bears (0-1, -2 1/2) over At Broncos (0-1), 17-13: Three days of extra rest and prep time is a big advantage for the Bears, whose defense can hide Mitch Trubisky’s blemishes.
• At Falcons (0-1, +2) over Eagles (1-0), 34-31: Atlanta should rebound in its home opener behind Matt Ryan. The Falcons are on an 8-3 run in prime time.
• Browns (0-1, -6) over At Jets (0-1), 23-20: With Jets QB Sam Darnold sidelined indefinitely (mononucleosis), the betting line quickly shot from 21/2 points to 6. I like the Jets getting this many points.
Last week: Overall, 8-7-1; Spread, 6-10
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