GAME OF THE WEEK
Lions (2-1-1) at Packers (4-1), 8:15 p.m. Monday
Spread: Packers by 4 1/2
Outlook: The week’s only duel of one-loss teams is a division matchup Monday night. The Packers are coming off an upset win in Dallas and can’t afford a letdown against a rival coming off a bye. Detroit has a bad track record in prime time (7-21 in the last 28 games), and Green Bay’s Aaron Twins (Rodgers and Jones) should handle the Lions’ so-so D. The Lions have won four straight in this series but that ends here.
Prediction: Packers, 31-20
UPSET OF THE WEEK
49ers (4-0) at Rams (3-2), 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Spread: Rams by 3 1/2
Outlook: An NFC West treat finds the Rams seeking to shake off consecutive losses and the Niners out to prove they’re no fluke. The Niners were last 4-0 in 1990, when Joe Montana and Jerry Rice still roamed the earth. The Rams will be the toughest test yet for the 49ers’ fourth-ranked scoring defense (even with Todd Gurley iffy), but I don’t trust the Rams’ D. The 49ers are the better all-around team right now, and have a chip on their shoulder to let the world know.
Prediction: 49ers, 27-24
OTHER GAMES
• Panthers (3-2, -2) over Buccaneers (2-3), 24-20, in London: It’s a 9:30 a.m. kickoff and I’m tempted by the Bucs, but fantasy god Christian McCaffrey’s 866 total yards are the most by a running back through five games since Jim Brown. And Carolina’s big-sack D is facing a depleted Tampa O-line.
• At Dolphins (0-4, +3 1/2) over Washington, 20-17: Miami’s minus-137 is the worst NFL point differential through four games since 1940. Washington is so bad it fired its coach already. Looks like Case Keenum will return to QB for Washington, which is a turnover machine no matter who pitches.
• Seahawks (4-1, -1 1/2) over At Browns (2-3), 23-16: Seattle played last Thursday and Cleveland stunk it up Monday night – a huge advantage in rest/prep time for Pete Carroll’s guys. Baker Mayfield (eight picks) has struggled, and, for those into calendar trends, the Browns have lost 16 of their last 17 October games.
• At Chiefs (4-1, -4) over Texans (3-2), 37-24: It’s a tasty QB duel, with Deshaun Watson coming off a fantastic game and Patrick Mahomes poised to rebound from a couple subpar (for him) efforts. Mahomes could have Tyreek Hill back, which would only underline our confidence in this pick.
• At Vikings (-3) over Eagles (3-2), 27-23: Kirk Cousins is coming off a big game and should have more chances against a beatable pass-D. Make it a venue call for a team that has taken care of business in 15 of its last 19 at home.
• Saints (4-1, +1) over At Jaguars (2-3), 23-20: Give me Teddy Bridgewater-to-Michael Thomas against an aggressive (read: chance-taking) Jaguars secondary.
• At Ravens (3-2, -12) over Bengals (0-5), 30-20: The Ravens will run big on the Bengals’ ground-D. Cincinnati is not good on the road but played Seattle and Buffalo tough, and will do the same in this division rivalry.
• At Cardinals (1-3-1, +2 1/2) over Falcons (1-4), 27-24: The Cardinals are 0-5-1 in their last six at home. The Falcons are 1-7 in their last eight at Arizona. Give me the home dogs, although I’ll feel much better if iffy David Johnson and Christian Kirk both play.
• At Broncos (1-4, -2 1/2) over Titans (2-3), 19-16: Denver just scored an exhilarating win at the Chargers and hosts the rival Chiefs next, so if Titans don’t get overlooked as a sandwich game here, give me the Broncos at home. Not that I’m sold on Denver. Rather, I don’t trust Marcus Mariota or that offense.
• Cowboys (3-2, -7 1/2) over At Jets (0-4), 31-16: The good news? Sam Darnold is back from mono. The bad news? Losing is contagious. Dallas has proven it can handle weak teams and should bounce back big from consecutive losses. The Jets can’t outscore the Dak ’n Zeke Show.
• At Chargers (2-3, -7) over Steelers (1-4), 20-16: Pittsburgh’s fill-in QB, Mason Rudolph (concussion), is unlikely to play, meaning raw Devlin Hodges is on call for his first career start, undrafted out of Samford. Not Stanford. Samford. Yet I’m rolling the dice on some combination of Juju Smith-Schuster, James Conner and Pittsburgh’s defense keeping this one close.
Last week: 8-7 overall, 9-6 vs. spread
Overall: 48-29-1, 41-36-1
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