Predicting lobster decline, again? (“Scientists predict lobster boom will end within 5 years,” Oct. 24).

Last time scientists predicted a lobster decline, Lobster Conservancy science detected no decrease (“Some research predicts decline; Lobster Conservancy detects no decrease,” Feb. 11, 2001).

This time, both lobster decline and conservancy scientists suffer from an absence of data. The former suspect that warming plays a major role, while the latter blame the impacts brought on by sea level rise for the loss of lobster nursery habitat. The decline scientists also use landings to predict impending doom.

“Ex-vessel” landings report how many pounds of lobster are sold to a dealer at the location where the lobsters are removed from the fishing vessel. Landings do not report where or how the lobsters were captured, nor do they report data about the lobster such as size, sex, molt condition, etc.

It’s too bad we don’t have better predictive tools. At the same time, it’s hard not to suspect that the current level of lobster harvest is not sustainable for the long term.

Commercial lobster fishing in Maine turns 160 years old in 2020. That’s only about 16 generation times for a lobster; 6-7 for a human. Not very long in the grand scheme of things. A lot has changed in that time.

There’s plenty we can do to avoid impending doom. We can start by getting back in touch with the conservation ethic the fishery was built upon and sustained by for the first 150 years.

Diane F. Cowan, Ph.D.
executive director
The Lobster ConservancyFriendship

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