The lives of about 180 Mainers nearing retirement age will be saved over the next four years because the state expanded Medicaid, according to an analysis of a new study.

That’s primarily because people in the expansion population – many of whom were previously uninsured – will have access to care. Mainers with chronic conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and mental illness are now able to see a doctor, obtain medications and have regular checkups and preventive screenings.

The study, conducted by scientists for the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Massachusetts-based think tank, found that across the nation, Medicaid expansion saved an estimated 19,200 lives in the 55-64 age group from 2014-17.

The lives saved equates to a 39 to 64 percent drop in annual mortality rates for the 55-64 age group, the study said.

The older age group was studied because they were more likely to have chronic conditions that could result in death, and so researchers were better able to draw conclusions from data from that age group. Those who turn 65 are eligible for Medicare.

In Maine, about 180 people ages 55-64 who died in the years from 2014-17 would have lived if they had better access to care, according to the study.

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Aviva Aron-Dine, vice president of health policy for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington-based think tank, published an analysis of the study last week. Aron-Dine said a similar number in Maine – about 180 – will stay alive during the next four years because people with health insurance will be less likely to neglect their health.

“People with chronic conditions can have their conditions managed before their health worsens,” Aron-Dine said. “They can get their medications, such as cholesterol medications, and get diagnosed earlier when they get their preventive screenings.”

Through Nov. 7, 40,770 Mainers had signed up for Medicaid expansion this year, including 9,957 ages 50-64, according to the Maine Department of Health and Human Services.

Maine voters approved Medicaid expansion in November 2017, but former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who was opposed to Medicaid expansion, refused to implement it during his final year in office. Democratic Gov. Janet Mills implemented the expansion on her first full day in office.

Alison Weiss, communications director for Maine Equal Justice, an Augusta-based advocacy group that lobbied for Medicaid expansion, said it’s “common sense” that people’s lives would be saved, but it’s important for studies to confirm it.

“At its heart, Medicaid expansion was about families, friends and neighbors who needed to go to the doctor, and people understood that,” Weiss said. “People can now get the medications they need, and they don’t need to delay their care.”

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Earlier this year, a report by Maine researchers found that when fully implemented, the group most likely to sign up for Medicaid expansion are, on average, older, rural and more likely to suffer from mental health issues and chronic conditions.

Nationally, the number of lives saved by Medicaid expansion in one year – 2017 – is roughly half of all lives saved by passengers wearing seat belts, according to the center’s analysis.

“Medicaid expansion increased the share of low-income adults using medications to control chronic conditions like heart disease and diabetes. The new study finds particularly clear evidence of a drop in mortality from conditions like these, which are amenable to medication and other treatment,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Aron-Dine said that once Medicaid expansion is in place for a lot longer, social scientists may be able to look at the mortality of all age groups, rather than just those nearing retirement age.


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