AFC
No. 4 Texans (11-6) at No. 2 Chiefs (12-4), 3:05 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Spread: Chiefs by 10
Outlook: Deshaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes is the first under-25 QB duel in this round since 2000 (when both were 5). Andy Reid-coached teams have won 22 of 26 games following a bye in his career, but that doesn’t make me like the home team coming off a bye here as much as this does: Mahomes vs. the NFL’s 29th-ranked pass defense. Kansas City’s defense is so much better since the Chiefs won 31-24 in Week 6, and the team has won six in a row, while the banged-up Texans needed a frantic comeback, luck and Buffalo charity to barely survive the Bills last week. It isn’t all on Mahomes anymore. A big ground game and hugely improved D give him all the help he might need.
Prediction: Chiefs, 30-17
NFC
No. 5 Seahawks (12-5) at No. 2 Packers (13-3), 6:40 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Spread: Packers by 4
Outlook: This is the Prove It wing of this playoff round. Two gaudy records – but is either team great? Can you see either reaching Miami and perhaps even reigning? Seattle and Russell Wilson only beat banged-up Philly and ancient Josh McCown by one score after Carson Wentz went out early last week. Green Bay had eight single-score wins this season and Aaron Rodgers pilots an offense that was a middling 15th in scoring average. Seattle can win if Travis Homer and a much heavier dose of Marshawn Lynch can win the ground game vs. a Packers run D not nearly as strong as Philly’s, and if the Seahawks’ O-line protects the much-sacked Wilson. Give us Rodgers at home off a bye, but see it as a near pick-’em game.
Prediction: Packers, 23-20
Last week: 0-4 overall, 0-4 vs. spread
Final 2019: 169-86-1, 129-120-5
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