Nick Record, Ph.D., senior research scientist at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, is an accomplished, meticulous mathematician. In a recent op-ed (“Maine Voices: To change Maine’s COVID-19 forecast, we can’t afford half measures,” March 25), he wrote, “We know from other regions around the world that … the time between 100 cases and 100 deaths averages 13 days.”
As a former trustee of Bigelow, I know that if Dr. Record said this, it is a reliable projection. We now have over 100 cases confirmed by the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention. If we will have 100 deaths in 13 days, virtually all these 100 Mainers who will die must have the virus now. If the mortality rate is 1 percent to 2 percent, this means we probably already have 5,000 to 10,000 people sick in Maine, today, with the coronavirus, not the over 100 cases confirmed by test results.
Really. Think about it. If we have 5,000 to 10,000 people afflicted right now, and we are on an exponential growth curve, where are we headed? Three hundred thousand sick people, and 3,000 to 6,000 deaths? Can there be any doubt that each and every one of us needs to immediately take every step possible to slow the growth of this disease? Now. Nothing else could have a material effect on the outcome.
Steve Weems
Brunswick
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