Broncos (1-3) at Patriots (2-2), 5 p.m. Monday (ESPN)
Spread: Patriots by 11
Outlook: A quarterback mess both ways. Pats’ Cam Newton seems unlikely again to play after testing positive for coronavirus, which means either Brian Hoyer or Jason Stadium after both struggled last week. For Denver, injured Drew Lock seems unlikely, which would mean Brett Rypien again. Two solid defenses, but NE’s is more likely to dominate the QB, even with Stephon Gilmore (virus) out. Sans Cam, though, the bet line feels fat.
Prediction: Patriots, 23-13

Bills (4-0) at Titans (3-0), 7 p.m. Tuesday (CBS)
Spread: Bills by 8 1/2
Outlook: A COVID outbreak forced Titans to postpone last week and take an unexpected bye. Now Tennessee confronts the disrespect of being an unbeaten team playing at home as an 8 1/2-point underdog. I have a gut feeling the Titans rally around what they have gone through with a big performance.
Prediction: Titans, 20-17

• Panthers (2-2, +1) over At Falcons (0-4), 27-23: Atlanta has won five in a row in this series, but these Falcons can’t get out of their own way. Carolina is 2-0 since Christian McCaffrey’s injury, with improved D and Teddy Bridgewater both stepping up.
• At Chiefs (4-0, -13) over Raiders (2-2, +13), 38-16: The Chiefs have won 13 straight games and remarkably are 12-1 against the spread in that span. Pats held Patrick Mahomes in relative check last week, but the Vegas defense won’t.
• Cardinals (2-2, -7) over At Jets (0-4), 24-20: Arizona has dropped two straight, and also lost 17 of past 21 games that kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern. That gets fixed.
• At Steelers (3-0, -7) over Eagles (1-2-1), 21-17: Pittsburgh is coming off an unexpected bye caused by the Titans’ COVID outbreak and I like Big Ben’s weaponry over Carson Wentz’s, and edge to Steelers D as well.
• Rams (3-1, -7) over At Washington (1-3), 30-16: Washington benched QB Dwayne Haskins and will go with Kyle Allen over Alex Smith. The Rams are 3-0 vs. the miserable NFC East and looking for a sweep.
• At Ravens (3-1, -13) over Bengals (1-2-1), 37-20: Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson could make for an entertaining game. I didn’t say a close game. Cincy is in an 0-13-1 rut on the road and Baltimore tends to dominate everybody but the Chiefs.
• Texans (0-4, -6) over Jaguars (1-3), 27-23: Houston has won eight of past 10 in series, and Deshaun Watson can beat up on the Jags awful pass defense. But Jags can run on the Texans and keep it inside the bet line.
• Colts (3-1, -1) over At Browns (3-1), 23-20: Indy’s defense has been pretty great, and will limit an Browns attack now sorely missing RB Nick Chubb, and Philip Rivers puts up big numbers against a soft Cleveland pass D.
• At Cowboys (1-3, -9 1/2) over Giants (0-4), 41-16: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense seem sort of unstoppable. Dallas’ defense is terrible, but not sure the Giants impotent offense can take advantage.
• At 49ers (2-2, -9) over Dolphins (1-3), 27-20: San Fran has QB issues and mounting defensive injuries, but after a surprise loss to Philly in Week 4, the Niners are too good and too well coached to be surprised again.
• At Seahawks (4-0, -7) over Vikings (1-3), 31-27: Russell Wilson will be cooking on Minnesota’s porous pass defense, and likewise Kirk Cousins should enjoy a Seattle pass D that has been as bad or worse.
• At Saints (2-2, -8) over Chargers (1-3), 27-23: The Saints might finally get back star WR Michael Thomas, whom Drew Brees has dearly missed. And the Chargers will be without top RB Austin Ekeler, a big loss. All three LAC losses have been close. Same here.

Last week: 9-6 overall, 7-7-1 vs. spread.

Season: 39-2-1, 32-29-1

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