San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be out for at least six weeks after sustaining an ankle injury Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Elaine Thompson/Associated Press
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — If Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t play in another game this season, which is a possibility after he reinsured his right ankle Sunday, the question abruptly shifts to his future with the San Francisco 49ers.
Will he remain San Francisco’s quarterback in 2021 or will the team look in another direction?
Garoppolo’s play for Coach Kyle Shanahan has been a hot topic since the Super Bowl, when the 49ers failed to hold on to a 10-point fourth quarter lead against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs while Garoppolo struggled down the stretch.
To that point, Garoppolo’s play in 2019 spoke for itself. He was the only quarterback in the NFL to finish in the top five in yards per attempt, completion percentage and touchdown passes. He played well in two of the biggest games of the season, road wins against the Saints and Seahawks, and seemed to be on an upward trajectory.
His Achilles heal was turning the ball over, which was an area the 49ers expected would improve heading into his second full season as a starter. His record is still a robust 24-9 in his starts with San Francisco, including the playoffs.
But there are new issues this season beyond Garoppolo’s propensity for tossing interceptions, starting with his salary.
The pandemic is expected to cause the salary cap to dip in 2021 from $210 million to roughly $175, meaning Garoppolo’s $26.9 million cap hit will be more burdensome than expected, while the 49ers have a slew of free agents to re-sign — headlined by cornerback Richard Sherman and left tackle Trent Williams — and young centerpieces to reward with new contracts. They already did with tight end George Kittle and defensive lineman Arik Armstead, and star linebacker Fred Warner is next in line.
The team is currently in cost-cutting mode, evident by decisions to trade away DeForest Buckner in the spring and Kwon Alexander this week. Similar moves could come with players like defensive end Dee Ford and center Weston Richburg.
On top of the salary cap crunch, Garoppolo’s injury issues are becoming more of a trend than aberration. He’s been the 49ers starting quarterback for three seasons, and two have been derailed by injuries. He tore his left ACL in the third game of 2018, and his ongoing right ankle issues will cost him much of 2020.
So will the 49ers want to invest big money in Garoppolo, as their salary cap flexibility wanes, without any assurance he’ll be healthy in 2021?
There’s no knowing right now with eight games left in the current season. Shanahan and the organization are in the early stages of sifting through their long-term thinking.
Shanahan was asked about the topic in different ways Tuesday and spoke at length about how Garoppolo offers the best chance to win games and how salary cap decisions are based around building the best roster possible, regardless of position.
But what Shanahan didn’t do Tuesday was state firmly that Garoppolo would be his starting quarterback in 2021.
A point that Shanahan regularly makes when asked about Garoppolo is the difficulty in developing as a quarterback while being hampered by injuries, which raises the question about his patience in waiting for Garoppolo to put together multiple healthy seasons.
“I’ve got a good idea with Jimmy and what Jimmy is capable of doing, and that’s why he’s been here,” Shanahan said. “People get better when they play more and that’s what I feel for Jimmy on. One, Jimmy gives us the best chance to win. He’s proven that, and it’s hard that he’s not going to be here for, to me, probably about at least six weeks, because it’s harder to win without him. Regardless of that, I want Jimmy playing as much as possible because I know when he does, he’ll only get better from the experiences of it. I think that’d be the most frustrating thing about it after having the best chance to win.”
The 49ers would be wise to have a replacement plan in place before deciding to move a different direction. But there are no easy paths to a new quarterback who could keep the team’s Super Bowl window open, either.
The Falcons seem unlikely to trade Matt Ryan, given the $44 million in dead money the team would take on. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level again, which would make the Packers crazy to trade him. Longtime Shanahan favorite Kirk Cousins, who has his lowest passer rating in six seasons, would come with the same questions Garoppolo is already facing.
Then there’s the draft, which has to be the most intriguing option for San Francisco because it’s the cheapest. And it could be that San Francisco ends up in range for one of the draft’s top quarterbacks now that they’re in a similar injury-riddled position to 2018 when they landed the second-overall pick and Nick Bosa.
Should the 49ers finish 5-11 or 6-10, they would be in the neighborhood of the top 10 in the draft, meaning it would cost less to move up for a quarterback such as Justin Fields (Ohio State), Trey Lance (North Dakota State) or Zach Wilson (BYU), who are all expected to fall behind likely No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence (Clemson). A player in that range would make roughly $8 to $10 million per season.
That could give the 49ers a better chance to build out the roster surrounding the rookie quarterback. Mahomes and Jared Goff recently played in the Super Bowl on their rookie deals allowing the Chiefs and Rams to pay other players at key positions.
“(The salary cap) goes into a lot of the decisions, but you bring up Jimmy with it. It’s not Jimmy, it’s everyone on our team,” Shanahan said. “It’s never this guy for that guy. It’s how do you put a whole team together? That’s some of the hard decisions you have to make.”
Eventually, the 49ers are going to make that decision, leaving the rest of us months and months to speculate.
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