The result of the Maine Senate Race surprised many. This was a race that Sara Gideon was widely expected to win. Furthermore, this race was crucial for the Democrats to take the Senate majority. What was supposed to be a blue wave ended up falling extremely short of expectations. However, even in a year with unexpected losses, this race is considered by many nationwide to be the most shocking. I believe an overlooked factor was the advantage Susan Collins had as an incumbent. While there was hope that an incumbent could lose in Maine, with Jared Golden narrowly defeating Bruce Poliquin in Maine’s second congressional district in 2018, that now appears to be an outlier. After further researching results in Maine statewide races, specifically for the Senate and governor’s office, I found that Maine very rarely votes out an incumbent. The last time an incumbent senator lost was in 1978, when William Hathaway, who previously pulled an upset of his own, lost by 22% to the future Secretary of Defense to William Cohen. Additionally, the last time an incumbent governor lost was in 1955, when Burton Cross, who was immersed in scandal, lost to future longtime Senator and Secretary of State Edmund Muskie.

One factor Democrats were hoping could propel Gideon to a victory was Collins’s approval rating within the state of Maine. Collins currently holds the second-lowest approval rating for a senator in the country, hovering at only 42%. However, we can compare this to the lowest-rated Senator Mitch Mcconnell. Based on both the results in the Maine and Kentucky Senate races this cycle, approval ratings have a low bearing on election outcomes. Furthermore, it shows that for many voters, party loyalty may significantly outway the record and likability of a candidate. Within the state, we can compare Collins re-election to that of former Gov. Paul LePage. LePage, as many remember, was the Governor from 2011 till 2018. He was known well for having extremist, controversial views. Throughout his Governorship, LePage had embarrassing approval ratings, mostly hovering around 38%. However, LePage was able to win reelection handily in 2014.

We can also compare election results to Angus King, who handily won re-election in 2018. Just like King, Collins won all but two counties in the state. Additionally, Cumberland County was not as reliant as Democrats had hoped. I believe this shows the importance of incumbency in the state, as Gideon had only received 54% of the vote within the county as opposed to Chellie Pingree, the representative of the district who won with 67%, comparable to Angus King’s numbers in 2018. Furthermore, Gideon was unable to capitalize on counties in northern and central Maine. In Penobscot County, where King was able to win with 48% and Golden this cycle clinched the county with 52%, Gideon fell short, only obtaining 34% of the counties vote. Furthermore, in Aroostook County, a reliably red area, where Donald Trump received 59% of the vote, both King and Golden were successful in their elections, receiving 53% and 49% respectively. Conversely, Gideon only received 27.5% of the vote. These numbers provide further evidence that statewide and federal incumbents have within Maine, as the pattern shows Mainers voting patterns are not party bound, however more so reflect an abnormal advantage to those who currently hold office.

Throughout this cycle, those in the political circuit genuinely believed Sara Gideon would defeat Susan Collins, helping them claim the senate majority. Despite this, expectations fell short. Evidence shows that Mainers, no matter how unpopular an incumbent is, will mostly vote for those who currently hold office. For those currently holding statewide positions, it offers good news, as they know that they can, with very few exceptions, stay in office indefinitely, until they retire or face a term limit. While this idea may seem far-fetched for some individuals, it was re-confirmed this week with the re-election of Susan Collins.

Josh Rogers is currently a student studying political science at Clark University. He has previously worked for Joe Kennedy and was most recently the organizing director for Hillary O’Connor Mueri’s congressional campaign. He lives in Worcester, Massachuesetts.