NFL Week 12 picks

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Cardinals (6-4) at Patriots (4-6), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Spread: Cardinals by 21/2

Outlook: New England last missed the playoffs in 2008 and has little margin of error left to still avoid that fate. Bill Belichick is struggling post-Tom Brady, but I believe he has enough defensive weapons and the chops to limit Kyler Murray, who’ll be less than 100% with a shoulder issue. Arizona has lost two of three and is beatable. Poor Cam Newton has few weapons at his disposal. Good God do the Pats need Julian Edelman back! But if New England can summon a little bit of old home magic and keep this from becoming a touchdown swap meet, I think I’ll be liking my pick.

Prediction: Patriots 24-21.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Chiefs (9-1) at Buccaneers (7-4), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Chiefs by 3 1/2

Outlook: This game tops the marquee for the possibility of a scoring spree of 70-plus points. Mostly, of course, this is the Week 12 pinnacle because it’s Old G.O.A.T. vs. New G.O.A.T. – Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes in their fourth head-to-head. Brady leads 2-1 including a 2018 playoff win. These teams don’t play much, but KC is 0-5 vs. Tampa since 1993. That streak’s about to end, too. And the difference may well be at the QB position. Mahomes has 27 TDs and only two interceptions, looking like the MVP. Again. Brady has thrown five picks just in the past three games, looking like, well, like he’s 43 years old. The Bucs as home ’dogs are tempting, yes. Brady has rebounded to prove his doubters wrong plenty in recent years. And might this time. For me, though, in this battle of G.O.A.T.s, I’ll take the kid.

Prediction: Chiefs 37-30.

OTHER GAMES

• Dolphin s (6-4) over At Jets (0-10): Don’t get me wrong. The Jets stink, but if Coach Adam Gase and company could get off the schneid versus any team, it’s Miami. Jets have lost their past two games by one score, and could get quarterback Sam Darnold back from injury Sunday.

• At Steelers (10-0, -4) over Ravens (6-4), 23-20: So many questions with this game originally set for Thanksgiving but rescheduled to Tuesday evening related to Ravens’ COVID outbreak. Lamar Jackson is out and Robert Griffin III is in, which makes it even tougher for a far-more-desperate Baltimore team.

• Raiders (6-4, -3) over At Falcons (3-7), 37-27: The Falcons are a credible 3-2 since an 0-5 start, and could catch the Raiders in letdown mode, but could be missing Julio Jones (hamstring).

• At Bills (7-3, -5 1/2) over Chargers (3-7), 31-28: A Josh Allen-Justin Herbert shootout with a pair of very average defenses. I’ll hunch the Chargers plus points, with an outright upset possible.

• Giants (3-7, -6) over At Bengals (2-7-1), 20-16: With QB Joe Burrow lost for the season to a knee injury, raw Brandon Allen makes his fourth career start for Cincy. Bet-line feels a bit large for what figures as a low-scoring affair.

• At Colts (7-3, -3) over Titans (7-3), 28-21: With two even offenses, a big edge on defense goes to the Colts, but the pick presumes Philip Rivers (questionable) plays as expected.

• At Vikings (4-6, -3 1/2) over Panthers (4-7), 24-16: I like the Vikings to control clock and game behind Dalvin Cook chewing up a Panthers run defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry.

• Browns (7-3, -6 1/2) over At Jaguars (1-9), 23-17: The Browns are not that good and will be missing sackman Myles Garrett to COVID again, but their running game will roll.

• Saints (8-2, -6) over At Broncos (4-6), 24-20: The Saints have won seven in a row and should prevail once more with Taysom Hill again subbing for injured Drew Brees, but I like Denver to cover.

• At Rams (7-3, -7) over 49ers (4-6), 23-18: The Niners beat the Rams 24-16 in October and I like Rams defense to carry the day, but those are all reasons to hunch Niners with the points.

• At Packers (7-3, -8 1/2) over Bears (5-5), 20-17: Coming off a bye, expect a rested Bears defense to keep the score low and close. We’re picking a lot of underdogs to cover this week, and here’s one more.

• Seahawks (7-3, -4 1/2) over At Eagles (3-6-1), 41-23: Philly QB Carson Wentz is fighting to hold onto his starting job. After playing last Thursday, there will be no stopping a rested, healthy-again Seattle offense.

Last week: 8-6 overall, 9-5 vs. spread.

Season: 101-59-1, .86-73-2