Chris Sale continues to make his way back from Tommy John surgery and should return the Red Sox some time after the All-Star break. Tony Dejak/Associated Press
When Chris Sale struck out 17 Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park on May 14, 2019, his average fastball velocity was 93 mph.
This week, during a short live batting practice session at Fenway, Sale’s fastball once again sat at 93 mph.
And he’s still at least a month away from returning, giving him ample time to build up even more arm strength.
The lesson here is simple: while it’s exciting to see Sale sitting at 93 mph already, he doesn’t need to start averaging 95-96 mph again for the Red Sox to think he’s ready to return.
And even if Sale’s velocity ebbs and flows over the next month as he begins making rehab starts in an attempt to complete his 16-month recovery from Tommy John surgery, the Sox would be wise not to panic over the spikes.
“I do appreciate the numbers and some of the stuff that comes with that, but the velocity for me isn’t a big thing right now,” Sale said Thursday. “When I get into my rehab games, I’ll want to see what I’m carrying, what I’m topping out at, what the low points are and stuff like that. But right now, just the appearance, what it looks like coming out of my hand, how it feels coming out of my hand, and the next day waking up, how’s this thing rolling?”
The mistake would be rushing Sale back because the Red Sox are desperate for another starting pitcher.
It’d also be a mistake of delaying his return because he’s not sitting at 95 mph again. He might never do that again, of course. John Lackey added velocity after Tommy John, but not every pitcher does that.
In his second start of the 2019 season, Sale averaged 89 mph and held the Oakland A’s to one run and three hits over six innings that April.
He finished the season averaging 93.5 mph on his fastball, tied for the lowest average fastball velocity of his career. And yet his strikeout rate of 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings (218 batters in 147 1/3 innings) was the second-highest of his career, albeit with a career-high 4.40 ERA (he gave up 19 runs in his final 23 2/3 innings before going down with an elbow injury).
Point is, there’s no need to overreact to his velocity, good or bad, in the next few weeks.
He’s already shown enough to think he could get big leaguers out right now. The video of Christian Arroyo swinging and missing during the live batting practice session was enough to convince Sale.
“The biggest thing for me is the feedback,” he said. “A couple of guys have seen me throw. … They’re literally right behind me watching. … And I have two of my teammates in the box facing me, and obviously Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. I have a lot of different angles, and a lot of people that have seen me throw, a lot watching me do this.
“It’s awesome to see – there were a couple of times I would throw a pitch, and I’m walking back, and I would look at them and say, ‘That one felt good.’ And they’re like, ‘Yeah, that one came out.’ So you’re getting some instant feedback and just bouncing some ideas off of guys and getting true reads, what it looks like in the box, what it looks like from this angle.”
But Sale won’t be in charge of when he returns to the big leagues; the Red Sox will.
Asked where he’d like to rehab, Sale said, “I don’t care. I’ll go to New Zealand to make a start if I have to. It doesn’t matter to me. I’m excited to get this thing going. I want to get back into games. I want to compete.”
It’ll be on the Red Sox to decide when he’s ready. And likely, almost surely, it’ll happen before July 31. As long as there have been trade deadlines, there have been general managers using their own players as decoys to gain leverage.
As it is, Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom probably won’t go nuts in his first-ever trade deadline as a buyer. He’s demonstrated a lot of patience and conservatism – perhaps too much — when it comes to building this year’s roster, largely because few people thought this team would actually compete.
The Sox are good enough not to be desperate for Sale to return. A long losing streak in July could change that, but right now, the first MLB team to 51 wins doesn’t need to make bold decisions.
Just as Sale doesn’t need to start touching 98 mph for us to believe he’s ready to pitch in the big leagues again.
One way or another, he’s going to help the Red Sox this year.
“When I think of this team, I just think of grit,” he said. “Like sandpaper. There’s not an ounce of quit in anybody. This is a team that’s kind of constructed with grinder guys. Guys that just don’t take no for an answer. Never give up. … We find ways to win on days when we probably shouldn’t win, and that’s a good quality to have.”
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