GAME OF THE WEEK BILLS (8-6) at PATRIOTS (9-5), 1 p.m., Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 2 1/2

Outlook: The battle for the AFC East lead gets the GOTW nod as the Bills try (again) to assert that it is their time now, not still the Patriots’ time. The Patriots won in Buffalo, 14-10, on Dec. 6 and are home now. They haven’t been great there (3-4), but Foxborough in deep winter is still an edge. The Pats also have a smidgen more rest/prep time after playing last Saturday. That small edge, plus NE’s secondary to limit Josh Allen, plus Bill Belichick? Yes, please.

Prediction: Patriots, 23-20

UPSET OF THE WEEK
RAVENS (8-6) at BENGALS (8-6), 1 p.m. Sunday

Spread: Bengals by 3

Outlook: This is for the lead in the tight AFC North, and our upset call rested (hobbled?) solely on the tender ankle of QB Lamar Jackson. Such is the peril of posting and locking in our picks on Thursdays. Unfortunately, Jackson was ruled out on Saturday and backup Tyler Huntley went on the reserve/COVID list. See the Ravens as a better team than Cincy, but the odds of an upset have been greatly reduced.

Prediction: Ravens, 27-23

OTHER GAMES

@Falcons (6-8, -5 1/2) over Lions (2-11-1), 24-21: Detroit is 0-6-1 on the road and Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight at home, but give me the Falcons to beat that trend. Especially with Lions QB Jared Goff unable to clear COVID protocols and it being a sharp drop to inexperienced Tim Boyle.

Rams (10-4, -3) over @Vikings (7-7), 28-24: Sneaky-big NFC playoff stakes with Rams tied atop their division and the Vikes in a tight wild-card chase. Big chance for the home underdog. Still, I trust the Rams’ edge in quality and consistency. Cooper Kupp should be in MVP convo.

@Jets (3-11, Even) over Jaguars (2-12), 19-16: The worst offense in the league visits the worst defense. Also, QBs drafted 1-2 overall face off as rookies for only fourth time. Alas, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both are slogging though disappointing maiden voyages. Make it a venue pick with Jacksonville wearing yoke of 15 straight road losses.

@Eagles (7-7, -10) over Giants (4-10), 24-10: With Daniel Jones shut down, look for Jake Fromm to make his first start for the Giants. The Giants beat the Eagles, 13-7, in Week 12, but wild-card chasing Philly gets its revenge.

Buccaneers (10-4, -10) over @Panthers (5-9), 24-16: How eager is Tom Brady to bounce back big after suffering his first shutout loss in 15 years? Elite teams don’t often look bad twice in row, and Tampa’s 9-0 home loss to New Orleans was a stunner. It won’t matter if Brady is zoned in. But he’ll be missing WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and RB Leonard Fournette, so Carolina-with-points feels like the play.

Chargers (8-6, -10) over @Texans (3-11), 31-16: L.A. played last Thursday so has a rest edge, but that’s offset by COVID-19 issues. Top sacker Joey Bosa (unvaccinated) and RB Austin Ekeler (vaxxed) are out. The Chargers are in a playoff fight and can’t afford a slip-up loss, and the idea of Davis Mills outscoring Justin Herbert is silly.

@Seahawks (5-9, -6 1/2) over Bears (4-10), 23-12: It’s the Sad Bowl Sponsored by Tears as Seattle stumbles to its first losing season since 2011 and Chicago is the best of five teams mathematically out of the playoff hunt. Nick Foles will start at QB for the Bears in place of Justin Fields (ankle), and Russell Wilson has struggled, but I still like the Seahawks at home, comfortably.

@Chiefs (10-4), -8 1/2) over Steelers (7-6-1), 27-17: Both teams have been hit by COVID-19, but Kansas City harder, though WR Tyreek Hill has been cleared to return and TE Travis Kelce hasn’t been ruled out yet. With Pitt on a 2-7 road slide, I like the Chiefs to cover the number.

@Raiders (7-7, Even) over Broncos (7-7), 19-17: Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater won’t play, so Drew Lock makes his first start of the season after a trio of humdrum relief appearances. Vegas’ offense has produced only four TDs over the last three games, but the Broncos’ defense has sagged over the same time period. I’ll make it a venue call, and feel better about it if the Raiders get back TE Darren Waller from injury for the first time since Thanksgiving, as hoped.

@Cowboys (10-4, -10 1/2) over Washington (6-8), 28-13: The Sunday night stage could crown an NFC East champ, with Dallas clinching with win (or earlier Sunday by Philly losing). Washington is on short rest after playing Tuesday but gets a boost with the return of QB Taylor Heinicke off the COVID list. Like the Cowboys for a season sweep, fueled by that fierce defense.

Dolphins (7-7, -1 1/2) over @Saints (7-7), 20-17: The Dolphins and their still-breathing playoff hopes got quite the early Christmas gift Thursday with the news Ian Book will be starting at quarterback for New Orleans on Monday night after both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian headed to the COVID list. Book has never taken a snap as a pro. The huge break for Miami quickly flipped the betting line from Dolphins as 3-point dogs to 11/2-point favorites.

Last week: 10-6 overall, 7-9 vs. spread

Season: 140-83-1 overall; 115-107-2 vs. spread

– Greg Cote, Miami Herald

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