Look, I’m going to be honest. I got too attached to this storm. I got too close.

I watched it grow up from a mere six-day out EURO model projection to a more independent, functional Ensemble GFS storm.

And now that the storm has trended JUST a bit too far east, I’m not mad; I’m just disappointed. I only wanted this storm to fully apply itself, to be the storm I know it can be. But time is running out for that.

As it stands, with its slightly too far east track, it’s a moderate-to-light event.

That low position isn’t terrible, but it’s just not close enough to get the really deep moisture into the state. A shift of 75 miles to the west or even northwest would give us a solid six to 12 inches-type event.

Snow begins on Friday morning.

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It’s likely the most intense during the afternoon and early evening, especially along the coastline, where we will get some more substantial bands.

The snow wraps up overnight on Friday.

I still think this storm could be a bigger deal. Often the models tick northwest with low pressure systems within 48 hours or so of the onset of a storm. It’s a known bias.

In addition, snowfall isn’t linearly related to distance from the center of a low. Deformation zone bands of snow and CSI bands often increase snowfall amounts well away from the center itself.

Bottom Line: Give me any reason to increase this snowfall map, and I’m dying to do it. It’s a hunch.

But based on all the information we have right now and leaving wish-casting out of it, this is our snowfall map for Friday.

 

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