The guards on duty for the Chiang Kai Shek Memorial, lowering of the flag of the Republic of China, Taiwan. An Rong Xu/The Washington Post

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan will on Monday inaugurate Lai Ching-te as its new leader, ushering in an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term for the Democratic Progressive Party, which has transformed the island democracy into a bulwark against Chinese aggression and brushed off increasingly ominous threats from Beijing.

Lai – vice president under outgoing leader Tsai Ing-wen, who has reached her two-term limit – has vowed to continue his predecessor’s defense and foreign policy approach of trying to avoid inflaming tensions with China while also standing up for Taiwan’s freedoms and way of life.

“We stand at the forefront of the fight against authoritarian expansion,” Lai told the Copenhagen Democracy Summit last week. “Despite Beijing’s efforts, the people of Taiwan have rejected authoritarianism. China’s coercion has only strengthened our resolve to remain democratic and free. We refuse to submit to fear. We choose optimism and hope.”

China has ramped up its military aggression around the island over the past two years, especially during politically sensitive times, in an apparent effort to intimidate the Taiwanese people and exhaust their military. Beijing is expected to again make its unhappiness with Lai’s inauguration known, although experts say they are not expecting outright confrontation.

Lai, once a scrappy advocate for Taiwanese independence, has since tempered his views and is now a key proponent of the DPP’s efforts to maintain peace with Beijing while repelling its aggression. He has said he is open to talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping but only as equals, which is unacceptable to Xi. The Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan but claims the island as its territory.

Although the DPP narrowly lost its majority in parliament in the election in January, Lai’s victory underscores the dramatic transformation that has taken place in Taiwan during the eight years of Tsai’s presidency.

“Xi Jinping’s efforts at soft power are failing, and he is forcing unification without caring about Taiwan’s public opinion,” said Lai I-chung, president of the Prospect Foundation think tank in Taipei and no relation to the new president.

Taiwan’s sense of its own identity has increased over the past eight years under Tsai. “Taiwanese people have also gained a very high level of confidence,” he said.

The Taiwanese commitment to self-determination grew stronger with China’s suppression of pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong in 2019 and its subsequent efforts to stamp out civil society and free speech. A widely cited survey conducted by National Chengchi University since 1992 shows the number of Taiwanese who identify as solely Chinese – as opposed to Taiwanese, or both – has plummeted from 25 percent then to 2 percent now.

Even the main opposition party, the more China-friendly Kuomintang, has had to temper its embrace of Beijing, pledging during the presidential campaign to boost the defense budget.

TSAI’S PIONEERING PRESIDENCY

Tsai, known for her soft-spoken and bookish demeanor, became Taiwan’s first female president in 2016 and has led the island to become one of the most progressive places in the region, especially for LGBTQ+ rights. During the pandemic, Taiwan emerged as one of few places in the world that successfully controlled the spread of the virus through a variety of countermeasures, raising Tsai’s profile around the world as the “covid crusher.”

She spearheaded several defense reforms, including extending military service for Taiwanese men from four months to one year, and launched Taiwan’s first domestically produced submarine. She also enhanced Taiwan’s reputation in the world by strengthening ties with the United States and other friendly democracies.

“She was by no means a perfect president, but she did so much for Taiwan internationally that no one ever thought possible,” said Lev Nachman, political scientist at the National Chengchi University. “I really think her foreign policy is going to be remembered by just how much she has done to create more allies for Taiwan in spaces we did not know existed before, like in Eastern Europe.”

At the same time, however, the number of countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan has plummeted as China has steadily picked them off one by one, including by cutting trade and aid deals with them. Now only 11 countries and the Vatican recognize Taiwan – 10 fewer countries than when Tsai took office.

A month after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, he spoke with Tsai by phone – a first between the leaders of the United States and Taiwan since 1979 – breaching decades-long U.S. protocol and heralding the Trump administration’s more confrontational approach with Beijing.

Still, Tsai toed a delicate balance between asserting Taiwanese sovereignty while not going so far as to promote full independence, a move that would trigger Beijing, experts say.

The question now, analysts say, is exactly how Lai will carry out his promise of continuity and how Beijing will react. Beijing has criticized Lai as a separatist and “troublemaker” despite his efforts to distance himself from early advocacy for formal independence.

“Regardless of whether it’s true, the perception is that Lai Ching-te’s policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai’s policy,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

“Tsai basically tailored her positions and her steps very carefully without getting the United States into an uncomfortable position vis-à-vis China,” Yun said. “The challenge for her successor is whether he will be able to repeat that process.”

HURDLES AHEAD

Lai will indeed face some new challenges.

The DPP is struggling to push its agenda after losing its parliamentary majority in January. The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party recently blocked a DPP proposal requiring lawmakers who are privy to confidential briefings to get approval from security services before visiting China. On Friday, a brawl over a contentious parliament reform bill sent six lawmakers to the hospital and sparked a demonstration outside the legislature.

The Chinese Communist Party asserts sovereignty over the self-governing island of 23 million people and considers it a breakaway state that it is willing to seize by force if necessary. Xi has repeatedly said that “reunification” is “inevitable,” even though Taiwan has never been ruled by the CCP.

Instead, Taiwan exists in a kind of gray zone where it has its own passport and currency, and holds democratic elections, but is not a fully fledged country. It cannot be a full member of United Nations organizations and its athletes compete at the Olympics under the banner of “Chinese Taipei.”

Diplomacy exists in the same limbo. The United States has maintained formal relations with China since 1979, under a one-China policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claims over Taiwan without endorsing them. But it also has less formal ties with Taiwan, operating the American Institute in Taiwan – an embassy in all but name – and selling arms to Taiwan to help it defend itself.

The Biden administration, keeping with the practice of previous administrations, is sending a bipartisan delegation of former U.S. government officials to Lai’s inauguration Monday, a senior administration official told reporters.

Lai is unlikely to make provocative statements during his inauguration speech Monday. Washington has unofficially consulted with Taipei on the content of Lai’s remarks, as it did with his predecessor, a senior administration official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House.

Beijing is unlikely to respond in a manner that escalates tensions with Washington, many analysts say. “I don’t think Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders want immediate trouble with Taiwan,” said Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Nonetheless, the administration is concerned by continued Chinese attempts to intimidate Taiwan by more frequently sending warships and fighter jets across the median line that acts as an unofficial border between China and Taiwan.

Last week, Taiwan’s defense ministry said Chinese forces carried out a “joint combat readiness patrol” near the island, marking the largest warplane incursion this year and ratcheting up tensions days before the inauguration.

Despite the respect she gained on the international stage, Tsai is leaving her successor with a host of unresolved domestic issues.

Some Taiwanese businesses are unhappy with declining trade with China under Tsai’s watch, and her party has faced corruption scandals.

Many Taiwanese, especially the younger generation, are struggling with stagnant wages and high housing prices.

“Tsai Ing-wen has improved Taiwan’s international status, and the people’s pride has also increased. But if you ask young people about the current life problems they care about, things have not improved,” said Lai of the Prospect Foundation. “Lai Ching-te will have to deal with these issues.”