The United States is reducing planet-warming emissions faster than ever before but is still falling short on its commitment to cut such pollution in half by 2030, according to an analysis released Tuesday.

The annual report by the independent research firm Rhodium Group projected that the United States will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 38% to 56% below 2005 levels in 2035. Under the Paris climate accord, the United States has pledged to cut its emissions between 50% and 52% by the end of this decade.

Still, experts emphasized, these findings demonstrate that the Inflation Reduction Act, pollution controls and the nation’s broader shift to renewable energy are delivering significant results. In the last couple of years, the Biden administration has distributed billions of dollars for initiatives such as electric vehicle production and local climate solutions.

“That’s certainly not a level of decarbonization we would have projected a decade ago,” said Ben King, lead author and associate director with Rhodium Group’s energy and climate practice. “When we were looking at where we were headed before the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, we weren’t seeing levels nearly as meaningful.”

Solar power, wind power and electric vehicles have grown more common, King said, crediting these changes to the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, regulations by the Environmental Protection Agency and other policy actions.

Rhodium is projecting declining emissions in key sectors by 2035: The power sector will cut emissions by 42% to 83%, the transportation sector by 22% to 34%, oil and gas operations by 12% to 28% and building emissions by 9% to 12%.

Compared with previous iterations, this report analyzes the impacts of new climate regulations. It also focuses on the power sector and electrification across the country, anticipating that the grid will face more demand from electric vehicles and data centers that will soon go online.

Despite considerable improvements, the United States is not on track to meet the Paris agreement commitments it signed on to in 2016 even in the best-case scenario. And the nation does not have the robust policies in place to achieve “deeper levels of decarbonization by mid-century,” according to the report.

Whether this climate progress could be derailed by a seat change in the White House is difficult to tell, experts said. Manufacturing facilities for electric vehicles and other technologies are unlikely to stop operating; on the other hand, EPA regulations that were recently put in place are most susceptible to change, King said. There may also be increased judicial scrutiny on regulatory actions after the Supreme Court overturned the Chevron doctrine last month.

“The biggest source of uncertainty about what might actually happen is how much of the Inflation Reduction Act persists in its current form, how much of it is targeted for repeal or rollback under a potential change in the White House or Congress,” King said.

Robbie Orvis, senior director of modeling and analysis at the environmental policy firm Energy Innovation, said projections from the Rhodium report are in line with the firm’s own forecasts.

“The current administration has done an incredible amount to cut emissions, which is shown in the fact that the [middle scenario] is getting about halfway from where we were before legislation and rules were in place,” Orvis said. “And all of these policies are expected to save folks money on their energy bills.”

Regardless of policies, clean technology is becoming baked into the economy, said Shomik Dutta, co-founder of the climate tech venture fund Overture. Market forces are advancing decarbonization, as wind and solar become the cheaper forms of electricity, he added.

“The path to true net zero is going to extend likely beyond our lifetimes,” Dutta said. “It’s very okay and encouraging for us to stop and celebrate great news.”