It might be a stretch to say that baseball’s recent trade deadline was much ado about nothing. So let’s be a bit more charitable and say that it was … underwhelming.
After weeks of hyperbole and rumors of blockbusters, the trade deadline was more about quantity instead of quality. A total of 58 trades were made in the final week – including 29 on the final day – and yet just two All-Stars were moved. Neither was exactly a luminary: Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes and Miami’s Tanner Scott. Paredes, in particular, was chosen to the game because every team had to be represented.
Meanwhile, although most of the deals involved prospects for more established stars, not a single one of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects was moved. That again signals the absence of star power, and also teams’ insistence on retaining their best young players. The looming presence of the Prospect Industrial Complex is tough to overcome, even at the deadline.
The Red Sox largely mirrored the industry as a whole, making five deals (and a waiver claim) in the final week. But none of the players they acquired could be considered an impact addition. They made small upgrades to the bullpen (Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims), the rotation (James Paxton), the bench (Danny Jansen) and their future (Quinn Priester).
The buzzword for nearly all playoff contenders was: incremental. Teams made improvements around the margins. Maybe this is how it will be for the foreseeable future, now that the three-team wild-card format has the vast majority of clubs in some semblance of contention at the end of July. (There’s been talk about pushing the deadline back to mid-August to allow time to further separate the contenders from the pretenders, but that’s gained little traction. And if you thought teams were reluctant to give up a lot for two-month rentals, how would they feel about getting a player for just six weeks?).
Before we can properly judge how much better the Red Sox got, it’s instructive to look at how the competition performed. In the era of expanded playoffs, it’s not just the teams in the AL East that the Red Sox are up against, but also, teams from the Central and West.
Some of the potential competitors – Seattle, for one – are already done with their season series with the Sox. But Boston has seven games each remaining with Baltimore and New York, three with Kansas City, three with Minnesota, six with Texas and six with Houston. (We’re assuming Cleveland won’t be caught in the AL Central, and thus, isn’t grouped in with the other wild-card contenders).
Here’s how the Red Sox stacked up against the field, post-deadline:
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles hold a comfortable lead over the Red Sox in the AL East – 6 1/2 games heading into Friday – and are unlikely to be caught by Boston. Then again, the Orioles have played just over .500 (28-25) since June 1, so there’s been some slippage.
The Orioles were busy at the deadline, obtaining two starters – Trevor Rogers and Zach Eflin – neither of whom is likely to make a postseason start, but each is likely good enough to keep the team in games for the rest of the regular season.
The Orioles might have been better off getting an impact starter like Blake Snell or Garrett Crochet – they certainly had the prospects to do such a deal. Will they regret their more measured approach in a few months?
Better or worse: Slightly better.
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ modest upgrades were, frankly, mystifying. The team sent a huge haul of prospects to the San Diego Padres last winter for Juan Soto, knowing that they were guaranteed only the 2024 season with him. Indeed, there have been no extension talks and Soto is headed for free agency in November.
Given that, shouldn’t the Yankees have gone all-in at the deadline? Instead, they acquired Jazz Chisholm and Mark Leiter Jr. Chisholm is a mercurial player who has never lived up to his potential, though he has had an outstanding first week with the new club. Leiter has swing-and-miss stuff for the late innings and will deepen the bullpen.
But they still have Gleyber Torres at second, unproven Ben Rice at first and lots of question marks up and down the roster, to say nothing of some uncertainty in their rotation, led by ace Gerrit Cole.
Better or worse: Marginally better.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals were one of the most surprising teams of the first half and attempted to improve at the deadline, but were forced to do so with a depleted farm system, considered to be among the bottom three or four in the game.
They added depth starter Michael Laurenzen for the rotation and Lucas Erceg for the bullpen, and also picked up infielder Paul DeJong. The Royals gave themselves a fighting chance to make the postseason for the first time in almost a decade.
Better or worse: Slightly better.
Minnesota Twins
If the Royals were hamstrung by the lack of prospects to move, the Twins were limited by payroll concerns.
They landed only one player of consequence – reliever Trevor Richards – and that isn’t nearly enough improvement. If the Twins are going to remain in the running for the wild card, they’ll need to get improved performance (and availability, when it comes to some injured players) from their current roster.
That’s a big ask four months into the season and likely will end in disappointment.
Better or worse: Same.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have been on a downward trajectory for a bit now, having surrendered first place in the American League West, a spot they held for themselves for the first few months of the season. Since July 18, they’ve gone 13-21 and coughed up what had been a 10-game lead.
The Mariners had a clear need to improve offensively, and landed two bats – Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. Arozarena has always been a big-game performer, and getting back into the pennant race may invigorate him, though T-Mobile Park isn’t the best hitting environment. Turner’s production has dipped considerably this season, but as the recent series against the Red Sox demonstrated, he might still have some big hits in him. If nothing else, he’ll provide some welcome leadership and other intangibles to a group that hasn’t met with much success in October.
Yimi Garcia was a nice bullpen add, but it’s likely the Mariners will sink or swim based on what they get out of the injured J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez.
Better or worse: Better.
Houston Astros
The Astros aren’t dead yet. The team that has made an astounding seven straight appearances in the ALCS is in a tie for the AL West lead.
But they didn’t help themselves much at the deadline. In the estimation of just about every evaluator, they grossly overpaid in their biggest deal, sending out three top prospects for rental starter Yusei Kikuchi.
The overpay will hurt more down the road, of course, but there are legitimate questions about how much Kikuchi will help the rest of the way: he’s had an ERA over 6.00 since the start of June.
Like the Twins, the Astros will have to depend on their core to get to October, and that core is decidedly older and banged up. The Twins will need contributions from Justin Verlander and Kyle Tucker to reach October, but it seems as though there might be more holes than they can overcome.
Better or worse: Same
SOME LEFTOVER thoughts and notes about the Red Sox and the deadline:
• The closest the Red Sox came to making another deal? On the final weekend before the deadline, they had advanced talks with the Blue Jays about Nate Pearson. Pearson is a hard-throwing right-hander who was once among Toronto’s top starting pitching project before flaming out in that role and being converted to a high-leverage reliever.
The results haven’t been great, though the stuff remains elite, especially the fastball, which ranks in the 94th percentile according to Baseball Savant. Plus, Pearson is under control through 2026, which added to his value.
The Jays had strong interest in Enmanuel Valdez as the return piece, but ended up pivoting to another deal with the Chicago Cubs.
• Even after acquiring James Paxton from the Dodgers, the Red Sox were involved in talks for other starting pitching options, including Garrett Crochet, whom the White Sox retained. Those are talks that could be restarted this winter. The Sox could use a lefty addition to what’s now an all-right-handed rotation except for Paxton.
• Feeling that Triston Casas could return later this month, the Red Sox didn’t spent a lot of time searching for a right-handed hitting first baseman, though they did engage some with Seattle, which designated Ty France last week before sending him to Cincinnati.
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