Maine voters are split about whether their households are better off financially now than one year ago, according to a poll released this week by the University of New Hampshire.

And political affiliation appears to be a big reason why. Among Republicans, 86% said their economic outlook is worse, while only 15% of Democrats felt that way.

The survey of 821 residents conducted online Aug. 15-19 revealed that 49% of respondents felt worse about the economy, while 17% felt better and 34% said things were the same. The percentage of respondents who say they feel worse now is 8% smaller than this time last year.

UNH’s poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, reflects a deep partisan divide over the economy as the November presidential election draws closer.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said Tuesday that he’s been conducting polls for more than 20 years, and views of the economy seem to increasingly be viewed through a political lens.

“The out-of-power party thinks the world is going to hell in a handbasket, and the party that controls the White House has a much more positive outlook,” he said.

As with most presidential elections, the economy – and the candidates’ approach to it – will feature prominently in campaign appearances and debates.

Last week, UNH released a poll of Mainers that looked at the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Among those surveyed, 55% said they planned to vote for Harris, compared to 38% for Trump. Harris’ margin has more than doubled in Maine from July to August.

Smith said the presidential preference poll in Maine was conducted not long after Harris officially became the nominee, so it likely reflected a higher level of enthusiasm among Democrats.

Nationally, the race remains close, and the outcome will likely come down to battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Maine has four Electoral College votes but is one of only two states that splits its electoral votes by congressional district (Nebraska is the other). In 2016 and again in 2020, the Democratic presidential candidate won both the 1st District and the state overall, earning three electoral votes, while Trump won the 2nd District and secured its one electoral vote.

Smith said the recent UNH poll of Mainers shows a stark disconnect between broader economic conditions, which show the country is improving and has generally done well coming out of the pandemic, and more specific factors such as grocery prices. Nearly 60% of those surveyed said they have had difficulty affording basic necessities in the last 12 months. For those with an annual household income below $75,000, that increases to 69%.

Respondents cited housing, cost of living, and jobs/economy as the most important problems facing Maine.

And 55% of those polled said they think it’s either very likely or somewhat likely that the U.S. will enter a recession in the next 12 months, even though economists largely agree that the country will avoid a recession, which is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product. A total of 96% of Republicans said they believe a recession is likely, compared to 39% of Democrats.

“The economy doesn’t pick friends or enemies,” Smith said. “But for Republicans, the number one issue is going to be the economy because it’s something they can blame on Democrats. And Democrats who may still feel the same pinch may be less likely to say it.”

Asked whether he expects the economic attitudes to shift between now and the election, Smith said it’s possible, but it likely wouldn’t matter because there is often a lag in consumer sentiment. For instance, if the federal reserve reduces interest rates – something Chairman Jerome Powell said was likely last week – it probably wouldn’t affect the race substantially, he said.