Ordinarily, a three-term congressman from Maine would have little trouble winning another term. After six years, voters have settled in and, barring scandal, return incumbents with regularity.

But Jared Golden is making it interesting.

U.S. Rep. Jared Golden. Robert F. Bukaty / AP file photo

Maine’s 2nd District Democrat does stand on contested ground, with Donald Trump carrying the district in both 2016 and 2020.

Golden won in 2018 via the first ranked-choice federal election in history. He finished behind incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin in the first round, but won after votes for two independents were reallocated.

He then beat a lightly financed Republican in 2020 and then defeated Poliquin decisively when he attempted a comeback in 2022, even as Republicans narrowly won the House overall.

Golden burnished his independence by twice declining to vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi when Democrats had a majority. It was cost-free; Pelosi didn’t need his vote.

It’s when he turned to presidential politics that Golden stumbled.

Most Democrats were conflicted after President Biden’s dismal debate performance that eventually led to his exit, but only Golden wrote a provocative op-ed.

He minimized concerns among Democrats that another Trump term might be problematic and depicted Jan. 6, 2021 not an assault on democracy and the election results but a moment where Americans “stood strong.”

It’s an odd way to view the assault of the Capitol, with overwhelmed police and a commander-in-chief who failed to call in the military.

It was what Golden wrote about 2024, however, that became notorious: “While I don’t plan to vote for him, Donald Trump is going to win.” He added, “And I’m OK with that.”

The prediction was weird enough. But why should Democrats be “OK” with Trump?

Democratic-leaning voters may be irritated, yet there’s no third candidate, thus no ranked-choice option. Still, this pronouncement doesn’t help.

It isn’t as if Golden hasn’t surprised in other respects. After the Lewiston massacre last Oct. 25, Golden switched sides on a hot-button issue.

Despite owning “an A1 Government model rifle to defend myself and my family,” Golden said Maine should ban assault weapons.

He conceded that “I had opposed this policy in the past,” then said something one almost never hears from a politician: “It’s not easy to admit being wrong. But I believe I was.”

There are other anomalies. He was one of two Democratic House members to oppose Biden’s student loan debt cancellation. In the first impeachment vote on Trump concerning Ukraine, he voted yes on one count, no on the other.

You can come to almost any conclusion about Golden’s stances — a potential liability amid such intense partisanship there’s a clearly defined party position on almost every issue.

The problem with presidential endorsements among the Maine delegation didn’t start with Golden, but with Sen. Susan Collins, who unwisely said during the 2016 campaign she wouldn’t vote for Trump, never expecting he could win.

Collins also got into trouble for her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court — who, against assurances Collins trusted, became a decisive vote overturning Roe v. Wade.

Nonetheless, she easily won reelection in 2020 while refusing to disclose who she might vote for. This year, she’s writing in Nikki Haley.

By contrast, Golden keeps speculation going. Though saying he wouldn’t vote for Trump, he declined to say he’d vote for Biden, or now, for Kamala Harris.

Who he might support is a continuing mystery.

This could have been avoided had Golden held his tongue, or better yet, used the traditional formulation for anyone not fully in tune with the national party: “I will support whoever is nominated.”

No one needs to know how anyone plans to vote. It’s a private decision, but whether a Democratic representative supports other Democrats is a legitimate inquiry.

In the end, it may not matter. Golden’s current opponent is first-term state Rep. Austin Theriault, resembling the 2020 challenger, Dale Crafts, more than Poliquin, who at least had the advantage of incumbency.

Theriault’s main calling card is a brief career as a NASCAR driver; at the State House he introduced just three bills; one minor measure became law.

As Collins showed despite having $100 million spent against her, Mainers prefer incumbents unless challengers really put something on the table.

It could happen. In 1974, not only did a 26-year-old Republican, David Emery, oust Peter Kyros, a four-term 1st District Democrat, but Jim Longley became the first independent since the Great Depression to win a governorship, beating the future U.S. Sen. George Mitchell.

But with partisan allegiances as strong as they are, it’s unlikely. Golden may not please a lot of Democrats, but he’s the only one available.

Douglas Rooks has been a Maine editor, columnist and reporter for 40 years. He is the author of four books, most recently a biography of U.S. Chief Justice Melville Fuller, and welcomes comment at drooks@tds.net.