Traffic counts are down where the Maine Turnpike Authority plans to build the Gorham Connector, fueling calls for the agency to back off the increasingly controversial highway project that’s meant to address commuter congestion west of Portland.

The authority also released a 2023 revenue study last week that estimates the full cost of the connector will be at least $331 million. Project engineers HNTB said at a community meeting in March that the cost would be “something north of $200 million,” a 5-year-old estimate that turnpike officials have stated repeatedly and said hadn’t been updated.

At the same meeting, held in a packed Gorham gymnasium, HNTB Vice President Paul Godfrey showed charts that asserted “traffic volumes are at or above pre-pandemic levels.”

But the most recent annual average daily traffic counts – taken at 28 sites along routes 114, 22 and 25 – are down an average of 13% from pre-pandemic levels, according to Maine Department of Transportation data. The analysis compared counts taken in 2022 and 2019 – or earlier at two locations where counts weren’t taken in 2019.

In one area highly affected by commuter congestion – where routes 114 and 22 overlap in Gorham, near O’Donal’s Nursery – the annual average traffic count has dropped from 21,650 vehicles in 2016, to 21,200 vehicles in 2019, to 21,070 vehicles in 2022. That’s a 2.7% decrease over six years.

In one area along Route 25, in the stretch from downtown Westbrook to downtown Gorham, the annual average traffic count went from 18,010 vehicles in 2016, to 19,340 vehicles in 2019, to 14,530 vehicles in 2022. That’s a 19% decrease from 2016 to 2022.

“The congestion has been heavily exaggerated,” said Stanis Moody-Roberts, whose property on County Road in Scarborough lies in the path of the proposed toll highway.

Moody-Roberts attributes the decline to more people working from home, including him, and a growing population of people age 65 and older, among other possible factors. He also said he understands that it’s annoying to be stuck in traffic. But he and others believe there are better, less costly ways to address commuter congestion. Potential solutions include roundabouts and other improvements to existing roads that have been put off while the authority has been focused on building the connector, he said.

Moody-Roberts is a member of Mainers for Smarter Transportation, a grassroots organization that issued a 38-page report this month recommending alternative solutions to localized rush-hour congestion previously proposed by other municipal, regional and state agencies.

“There are so many other things you can do,” he said. “And in any process like this, you should try the smaller options first.”

CONSIDERING TRAFFIC COUNTS

Peter Merfeld, interim executive director of the authority, said recent traffic counts will be considered as the agency moves ahead with the connector proposal.

However, he said, “we don’t believe traffic is down enough to warrant” curbing the connector proposal or that any decrease will be sustained or significant enough to overrule 2012 traffic counts that found the corridor to be over capacity.

He noted recent and ongoing housing development in Gorham that’s expected to increase traffic.

The updated connector cost and traffic counts come as Merfeld and state transportation officials are set to appear before the Scarborough Town Council on Wednesday to address increasing public scrutiny and criticism of the toll highway.

First, turnpike officials are expected to outline the history of the project during a council workshop. Afterward, councilors are expected to vote on a resolution asking the authority to ramp up public review of the proposal and adjust it to meet community expectations.

The resolution is also expected to ask the authority to halt purchasing land in Scarborough for the connector and to have the connector proposal reviewed by an impartial outside firm to ensure it’s the best solution.

The authority has spent at least $4.5 million acquiring land needed to build the 5-mile, four-lane toll highway that would run from the recently rebuilt turnpike Exit 45 in South Portland, through Westbrook and Scarborough, to the Gorham Bypass at Route 114 in Gorham.

GOOD SPOT FOR A GAS STATION

Turnpike officials told Moody-Roberts in February that they want 8 acres of his property for the connector project, and they might have to move his driveway because it’s where they plan to build the County Road interchange.

They assured him the financial compensation would account for any property value lost because of the highway, he said, but they also suggested that his land might increase in value because he could put a gas station on it.

Either way, he’s not waiting to see how it turns out.

“I will fight this to my last penny,” said Moody-Roberts, who runs an international technology sales company. “Because it not only sucks for me, it’s also destructive to the environment, and to local history, and it’s a complete waste of public money.”

One way Moody-Roberts is fighting the connector is by seeking more information than the authority has provided publicly. The agency posted the 2023 revenue study and other reports on its website last week that he asked for months ago in freedom of information requests, he said.

The revenue study, conducted by HNTB, determined that the connector would cost $331 million, adjusting a 2019 estimate of $217 million for inflation and other factors. Construction would start in 2025 and toll collection would start in 2028.

At the community meeting in March, HNTB’s Godfrey said toll information wasn’t available. However, the year-old revenue study shows the authority is considering tolls of $1.50 to $2, which would generate $65 million to $172 million in revenue over 30 years. Tolls would increase every 10 years.

The authority would spend $125 million in cash reserves and finance the rest of the project at 5% for 30 years, the revenue study shows.

Merfeld, the interim executive director, said in a cover letter posted with the study that “the data and assumptions presented remain conceptual and are intended to support ongoing evaluations of the project’s financial viability.”

Merfeld said further that “an updated traffic and revenue report will be released once more details of the project are decided, with delivery expected before filing for environmental permits” from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Maine Department of Transportation.

Peter Mills, the former executive director who retired this month, had said the agency would seek environmental permits later this year.

The agency has since announced that it will slow the project to gather additional public input and increase transparency of the planning process.

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