The announcement by the Mills administration that Maine is poised to experience a $1 billion deficit in the next biennial budget is no surprise to legislative Republicans. We have been warning about unprecedented levels of spending at all levels of government for years.

Maine’s executive branch apparently now agrees with that assessment. Unfortunately, it may be a little too late.

Gov. Janet Mills and legislative Democrats have spent nearly every cent that has flowed into state government over the past three budget cycles, including the $3.6 billion in extraordinary funds passed to it or through it in federal COVID assistance. Simply put, too much money has flooded Augusta over the past six years and subsequently been spent on a range of new initiatives that may now be on the chopping block.

There has been one party in control of both the Legislature and Blaine House over the past six years. That put Democrat legislators in the driver’s seat to pass majority partisan budgets, offering little collaboration with Republicans to craft more responsible budgets in order to reach a two-thirds majority. And since Democrats had complete control over the last three budget cycles, they own the looming mess they have created. They cannot hide from that fact, although I’m sure they will try.

The Maine Constitution requires that we have balanced budgets. That means every dollar arriving in Augusta must be spent equally to create this balance. The 2026-2027 biennial budget forecast released by the Mills administration, however, shows a projected General Fund shortfall of more than $636 million and a Highway Fund shortfall of $312 million.

While revenues are forecasted to increase slightly to over $12 billion for both funds, it’s the projected expenditures that are the problem. With anticipated inflation, forecasters say the state’s expenditures are expected to balloon to nearly $13 billion. That’s what we call a structural budget gap.

There are only three ways this can be solved. Revenues must be raised to meet the anticipated expenditures, or expenditures must be reduced to meet revenues. The third option is to take actions on both sides of the equation to meet in the middle.

But in the reality of our current economic environment – and with a new payroll tax starting in January – is there any room to tax Mainers more? By one estimate, we already have the fourth-highest tax burden and the highest property tax burden in the nation – and property taxes are going up as I write. And with solar development subsidies kicking into high gear next year, we still have the sixth-highest electricity rate in country right now – 68% higher than the national average.

I’d say Mainers can’t afford much more. And they shouldn’t have to because we don’t have a revenue problem in state government. Instead, we have a spending problem – a very big one that the Legislature never examines.

Every two years the Legislature’s Appropriations Committee, on which I serve, has hearings on the governor’s proposed budget. In the old days, we actually reviewed the entire budget. Under current leadership, public hearings and serious work sessions only occur on the new proposed spending. The vast majority of state spending is called “current services” and, though rising, is never subject to real public scrutiny.

The questions are never asked: Is the spending working as intended? Is it improving the lives of Mainers? Can we do better, spend smarter?

Maine’s General Fund budget has grown from $6.8 billion in the 2018-2019 biennium to about $10.7 billion today including one-time transfers. That’s a 57% increase since Gov. Mills took office, more than twice the rate of inflation over that period.

Now the next Legislature is facing a fiscal cliff. The real fight will be how we solve it. By no means should we consider raising taxes – that will only hasten any economic decline that is already looming amid supply chain disruptions if dockworkers strike again.

But if the projections are accurate – and the Revenue Forecasting Committee usually gets pretty close – there’s no doubt that we will have to cut state expenditures, meaning programs and services. The majority party will have to own that, too.