It’s time to stop doomscrolling around in the polls. America’s last few elections have shown that today’s polls are – unfortunately – not reliable predictors of outcomes.
Poll errors average 2-5 percentage points. Given how close elections have become, these errors are huge, making polls largely worthless.
Methodology debates about polls are ongoing and unresolved. Consider the following:
1. Polls can’t foretell their own inaccuracies – and often turn out to have systematic biases toward one candidate or another.
2. Polls measure “likely voters,” meaning people who voted in the last election or two. But they completely ignore, for example, the 14.7 million women, young people, people of color and others who’ve registered since Kamala Harris joined the race.
3. Purposely biased junk polls, mainly from Republicans, are flooding the media.
So forget the polls. Take a deep breath. And hit the pavement to help elect the candidates of our choices.
George Simonson
Harpswell
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