It might seem easy to imagine what a Donald Trump presidency would look like in Maine. We’ve seen it before.
Still, there are plenty of indications that a second Trump term will be different, perhaps even more uncertain.
Trump’s campaign this year was marked by talk of grievances and retribution. He adopted a somewhat more unifying tone in his victory speech early Wednesday, when he spoke about winning an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” given that he won the popular vote as well as the Electoral College vote this time around.
Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate, as he did in his first term. But it was unclear Wednesday if he would also have a Republican-controlled House of Representatives, something that would effectively give him far more power to pursue his policy goals unfettered.
And it’s too soon to know who Trump’s top advisers will be because a large number of those who served in his first administration have turned against the president-elect and supported Harris during the campaign.
Here’s a look at some major issues:
IMMIGRATION
One of his biggest pledges – and one that seemed to resonate with voters – was to tackle immigration by building more border wall or closing the southern border entirely, and also rounding up what he and others call “illegals” in an unprecedented deportation effort.
If that happens, thousands of Mainers could be at risk. Although most immigrants in Maine in recent years are asylum seekers – a legal category – Trump and his supporters have labeled them as invaders, referring to them by sometimes racist terms.
In a state like Maine, where a prolonged workforce shortage has affected nearly every industry, removing that many workers could worsen the problem. There are roughly 55,000 foreign-born Maine residents, according to census data, although that’s likely an undercount.
If his administration plans to crack down further on legal immigration by making it harder for U.S. companies to hire foreign-born seasonal workers, that would likely impact Maine’s tourism industry.
The American Immigration Council estimated that a mass deportation effort would shrink the country’s gross domestic product between 4.2% and 6.8%, similar to the impact of the 2008 recession.
Warrantless immigration checks increased during the first Trump administration, including when Border Patrol agents boarded Concord and Greyhound buses in Maine. The bus companies ended the practice after legal objections. And some deportations of Mainers also happened during his first term, although on a smaller scale.
Mufalo Chitam, executive director of the Maine Immigrants’ Rights Coalition, said a Trump victory was not the result she and many others had hoped for. “People are fearful of what’s ahead from what they heard during the campaign. It creates some worry, some fear, some anger. All those emotions are going on today,” Chitam said.
But Chitam said immigrants have already lived through Trump’s first presidency and will do so again. “We will not be deterred,” she said. “It’s a fight, and we will fight for rights of immigrants in this state and country.”
THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
Trump has said he will dismantle the Affordable Care Act, which provides low-cost health insurance to more than 21 million people in the U.S., including 60,000 Mainers.
Whether the program would be replaced by something else remains to be seen, and during his debate with Harris, Trump said only that he has “concepts of a plan.” He also regularly threatened to do away with the ACA during his first term as president, although it never happened. Ending the plan would require the approval of Congress.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Trump has made vague promises to tackle what he calls government waste – he’s even said he would hire tech billionaire Elon Musk to oversee those efforts. It’s unclear what Trump or Musk would consider waste, but Republicans have long sought to cut back social programs, including food stamps and housing subsidies. Tens of thousands of Mainers rely on those programs.
Beyond that, Trump has pledged to target government officials across various agencies whom he deems insufficiently loyal. That could include federal bureaucrats in Maine.
If he does get Congress to approve deep spending cuts, it will make it easier to reinstate tax cuts he imposed during his first term and that are scheduled to expire next year. Those cuts were heavily weighted toward the wealthy.
But Trump could go even further and try to eliminate the income tax entirely, replacing it instead with a 20% tariff on imports from China and elsewhere. Economists have said that most consumers would end up paying more for products to offset those tariffs.
He has further called for eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security. It’s not clear how he would pay for those cuts or if they would result in more massive deficits.
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS
It remains uncertain whether Trump would seek to further restrict abortion rights, or how. He has taken credit for installing the Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, but he has said the matter should be left to states and that he does not support a national ban or federal level restrictions.
Maine’s law is among the most protective of abortion rights, but there are ways that federal policies could restrict access. Trump has said he would not sign a national abortion ban into law and would not try to block access to abortion medication, although his position on the issue, as well as many others, is not fully transparent.
Lisa Margulies, vice president of public affairs for Planned Parenthood Maine Action Fund, said Trump is the reason 28 million women in this country live under abortion bans. And she’s not convinced he wouldn’t try to expand those to all states.
“The truth is, Donald Trump doesn’t need to sign a national abortion ban to severely restrict this life-saving medical procedure and imperil access to related reproductive health care including birth control and fertility treatments,” she said. “He could severely limit access to reproductive care nationwide through executive action alone.”
If Trump seeks to ban the widely used abortion medication mifepristone, Maine could suffer greatly because of its rural nature. About 70% of abortions in the state are induced through medication.
LGBTQ RIGHTS
Trump has said he would push to make it more difficult for transgender individuals to access gender affirming care, a topic that has supplanted same sex marriage as a major social issue for conservatives. Maine, like many Democrat-led states, has progressive policies on that issue that could be threatened by any national restrictions.
PUBLIC HEALTH
On public health, Trump has promised to install one-time presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a high-ranking role. Kennedy’s views are rooted in conspiracy theories, including the long-debunked claim that vaccines cause autism. What that could mean for Maine is unclear. Maine has vaccine requirements for public school children.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
Climate change has not gotten much attention from Trump, who has expressed skepticism and even outright denial that it’s happening.
Maine has made significant progress toward reducing carbon emissions through heat pump technology and renewable energy incentives, partly because of federal incentives and funding that could be cut off or at least not extended.
He’s unlikely to continue efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, including offering rebates for electric cars or heat pumps, and instead has said he wants to increase domestic oil production by drilling on public lands and offering tax incentives and reducing regulations on oil, gas and coal producers. Trump also is unlikely to prioritize wind power, something Maine has been aggressive about.
JAN. 6 INSURRECTION
Trump is expected to issue pardons to those charged with participating in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Several are from Maine.
He will almost certainly seek to end any federal legal cases he’s involved in and has said he will fire special prosecutor Jack Smith immediately.
As was the case in his first term, Trump may not accomplish as much of this as he would like, depending on the makeup of Congress and on whether the Senate gets rid of the filibuster, which effectively requires 60 votes to advance major legislation.
The Senate is now under Republican control, but the House could still flip back to the Democrats.
Send questions/comments to the editors.
We invite you to add your comments. We encourage a thoughtful exchange of ideas and information on this website. By joining the conversation, you are agreeing to our commenting policy and terms of use. More information is found on our FAQs. You can modify your screen name here.
Comments are managed by our staff during regular business hours Monday through Friday as well as limited hours on Saturday and Sunday. Comments held for moderation outside of those hours may take longer to approve.
Join the Conversation
Please sign into your Press Herald account to participate in conversations below. If you do not have an account, you can register or subscribe. Questions? Please see our FAQs.