President-elect Donald Trump has promised to stop offshore wind development on day one of his administration. That will compound the challenges Maine faces in reaching its ambitious climate and renewable energy goals – and that humanity faces in limiting the looming disaster of global warming.

Maine’s clean energy strategy requires meeting 100% of our electricity needs from renewable sources by 2040, including three gigawatts of power from offshore wind – meeting one-fifth of our total energy demand.

The energy potential of the Gulf of Maine’s strong and steady winds has been well documented. However, resolving stakeholder conflicts has slowed development. And now two “October surprises” have cast serious doubt on Maine’s ability to reach our 2040 goals.

First, the federal Department of Transportation rejected Maine’s application for $456 million to construct a massive Sears Island port facility to build platforms and assemble generators. Without that infrastructure, it is hard to envision Maine as a major player in offshore wind, reaping its many economic benefits. And it is unclear where the state can turn for an alternative source of so much funding with a hostile Trump administration in power.

Second, at the Oct. 29 auction of federal leases for Gulf of Maine wind development, there were no bids for the designated areas off Maine’s coast. This seems a clear sign that renewable energy investors, like Central Maine Power’s parent company Avangrid, are not optimistic about Maine’s prospects for commercially viable offshore wind any time soon.

Parenthetically, there were just two bidders for federal leases off Cape Cod, including Avangrid Renewables. The minimal competition and cheap price tag on the winning bids – a fraction of what Avangrid and others paid for shallow water leases farther south – reflect private sector skepticism about the near-term prospects for floating offshore wind.

Compounding the bad news for Maine, Avangrid’s existing Vineyard Wind array operates out of New Bedford, Massachusetts, in collaboration with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. Given New Bedford’s head start, there is a strong likelihood that it, not Sears Island, will have the infrastructure to become the Gulf of Maine’s principal wind energy port.

This gloomy assessment stands in sharp contrast to statements about the lease auction by Jeff Marks of ClimateWork Maine and the Natural Resources Council of Maine. Marks claims that the auction’s results “will help build a strong and competitive Maine offshore wind industry and supply chain.” NRCM claims that the lease sale “bolsters Maine’s leadership on floating offshore wind.” These comments seem more like wishful thinking than objective assessments. The rejection of Maine’s Sears Island port application and the failed auction of leases off Maine’s coast say otherwise.

At this point, there are also reasons to question the need for two components of Maine’s offshore wind strategy: floating platform design work at the University of Maine and a planned 12-turbine “research array” southeast of Portland. Three snapshots cast doubt on the need for these ventures and their built-in delays:

• Off Scotland, commercial scale deep water wind farms have been up and running since 2017.

• Eighty-five miles from Norway’s coast, the world’s largest floating array supplies 80 megawatts of power to North Sea gas drilling rigs.

• China has launched a gigantic 20-megawatt floating turbine, roughly twice the capacity of the turbines planned for Maine’s research array.

Floating offshore wind technology is already proven and operating at scale. Like the wheel, it does not need reinventing.

Despite my disappointment and doubts, I wholeheartedly support Maine’s effort to tap its phenomenal offshore wind resource. It is a critical component of our clean energy strategy. Fulfilling offshore wind’s promise calls for renewed determination and creative thinking, though it may take longer than we’d hoped. Back to the drawing board.