Rachel Horning, David Morrison and Caroline Hill all with the Maine Department of Secretary of State wheel ballots into the State of Maine Department of Public Safety on Friday. The Maine Secretary of State’s office announced late Thursday that the race between incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault would be decided by a ranked choice runoff to be held next week. Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Staff Photographer

Could a write-in candidate for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District who ran on opposition to U.S. support for Israel in Gaza end up helping decide who wins the $30 million race?

That outcome is possible yet unlikely, but either way, Maine’s ranked choice voting law has once again been shoved into the spotlight following another razor-thin outcome on Election Day.

The Maine Department of the Secretary of State announced late Thursday that the race between incumbent Democratic Rep Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault would be decided by a ranked choice runoff to be held next week. The runoff tabulation will begin at 1 p.m. on Tuesday in the Florian Room at 45 Commerce Drive in Augusta, the department announced Friday night.

This is the third time in four elections for Golden that the race will be decided by ranked choice, which is triggered when no candidate crosses the 50% threshold in the initial vote count. The runoff will begin Tuesday and could take up to three days.

This year, Golden is objecting to the ranked choice tabulation, saying he already won a majority of the vote.

However, according to results released by the secretary of state, Golden received 196,189 votes, or 48.65%, while Theriault received 194,030, or 48.1%.

Another 12,635 ballots were left blank – at least on the first choice – and a little-known declared write-in candidate, Diana Merenda, of Surry, received 420 votes.

Diana Merenda, write-in candidate for the 2nd Congressional District. Contributed photo

Merenda became a declared write-in candidate by registering with the state before an Aug. 27 deadline. She made some public appearances during the campaign, including outside Golden’s office in Lewiston.

Her long-shot campaign was largely a protest of both candidates’ position on the war in Gaza, specifically financial support for Israel.

In an interview Friday, Merenda said she knew the race would be close and wasn’t surprised that ranked choice voting will decide the outcome. She said she has no idea who her 420 supporters might have voted for as a second choice.

“I’m really ambivalent,” she said, adding that she supported Golden in the past. “It’s truly not a good solution either way for me.”

Math suggests that any second choices among Merenda voters would not be enough on their own to push either Golden or Theriault over the 50% mark. Even if Golden got all 420 votes, that wouldn’t be enough.

The bigger question is what becomes of the 12,635 ballots that are categorized as blank.

Some of those are blank across the board for the 2nd District race because the voter simply skipped the race. Some are blank only on the first choice column but have a second choice designated. Further complicating things, voters who wrote in an undeclared candidate as their first choice also were categorized as blank, and may or may not have a second choice.

This is where math gets trickier.

Ballots that are blank across the board get tossed and subtracted from the total votes cast. Ballots that have a second choice get added to Golden or Theriault’s total.

Rep. Jared Golden fields a question from the media on Wednesday afternoon after declaring victory. Russ Dillingham/Sun Journal

Although Golden leads by 2,159 votes, there is a scenario in which a significant number of voters wrote in another candidate as their first choice – say Mike Soboleski, who narrowly lost to Theriault in the primary – and also chose Theriault on the second ballot.

It’s also worth noting that there are nearly twice as many blank ballots this year as there were in the 2022 election.

Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine, still believes Golden is likely to keep his seat after the runoff but agreed that this election feels different from the last two that were decided by ranked choice.

He expects Republicans, who have long criticized ranked choice voting as too confusing for voters and have challenged the law unsuccessfully in court, to continue making their case for why ranked choice voting is bad.

During Golden’s first election in 2018, when he defeated incumbent Bruce Poliquin, the Democrat trailed by about 2,000 votes after the initial count. However, because Poliquin did not reach 50%, a ranked choice runoff was ordered.

In that race, there were two declared independents – Tiffany Bond and William Hoar. After their votes were redistributed based on second choices, Golden overtook Poliquin.

In 2020, Golden defeated Republican challenger Dale Crafts on the first ballot, but in 2022, a similar ranked choice scenario played out when Poliquin ran for his seat and Bond ran as an independent.

No candidate received 50% support on the first ballot, but Golden had a lead and easily crossed the threshold on the second ballot because so many of Bond’s supporters chose him second.

Maine remains one of only two states that uses ranked choice voting in federal elections. But it might soon stand alone.

Alaska looks poised to repeal its open primaries and ranked choice voting system through referendum this year. That election has not been called, but with nearly 97% of votes counted, 50.9% supported ditching ranked choice, while 49.1% wanted to keep it.

Austin Theriault, the Republican candidate for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, takes the stage at Hollywood Casino Hotel in Bangor on Tuesday night to say he was “cautiously optimistic” about the incoming election results. Ben McCanna/Staff Photographer

Three other states – Colorado, Idaho and Nevada – rejected ballot measures that would have implemented both open primaries and ranked choice voting.

In Maine’s 2nd District race, Theriault also has requested a recount, although that won’t happen until after the ranked choice tabulation.

Golden declared victory after Decision Desk HQ, a website that reports election results, called the race for him. The Associated Press, which the Portland Press Herald uses to compile statewide election results and which has been tracking write-ins and blank ballots, did not call the race.

In a statement Friday, Golden’s campaign reiterated that he believes he won on the first ballot.

“We understand that the secretary (of state) has decided to include blank ballots in determining whether a ranked-choice run-off is required to proceed, and have objected,” it said. “As we have outlined in letters to the secretary, a straightforward reading of the current rules makes clear that Congressman Jared Golden won the majority of first-choice votes for a candidate and is thus the winner. ”

John Clifford, Ronald McGowan and Jason Nein work together to deliver ballots to the State of Maine Department of Public Safety on Friday. The Maine Secretary of State’s office announced late Thursday that the race between incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault would be decided by a ranked choice runoff to be held next week. Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Staff Photographer

The secretary of state’s office, however, said there is no mechanism to determine on election night which ballots are truly blank, and which have a second choice. Clerks only consider the first column.

“Given that more than 12,000 voters made a first choice that was not either Congressman Golden or Representative Theriault, it is mathematically possible that the second choices of those voters could change the outcome,” Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said in statement. “For that reason, the law requires that we proceed with the ranked choice voting tabulation.”

Theriault’s campaign on Friday raised concerns about the counts in some areas, specifically the blank ballots, but supported the ranked choice tabulation.

“Given that this is the closest race in modern Maine history, we must ensure a full, accurate count, and that will likely take some time,” campaign manager Shawn Roderick said in a statement. “Unfortunately, that means that we’re looking at a lengthy process, and we’re looking at this taking weeks – not days – to ensure Mainers’ voices are heard. We have to follow the process and the law to ensure every vote is counted fairly and accurately.”

The 2nd District race was one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country and drew about $30 million in combined spending from the candidates and outside groups.

The winner here and in a handful of other toss-up races across the country could determine which party controls the House, where Republicans currently cling to a narrow majority.

Staff Writer Daniel Kool contributed to this report.